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		<title>The Wall of Silence</title>
		<link>https://ethiopiantribune.com/2026/06/the-wall-of-silence/</link>
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		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Ethiopian Tribune editor]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 18 Jun 2026 08:50:01 +0000</pubDate>
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		<category><![CDATA[prince dr Asfaw Wossen Asrate Kassa]]></category>
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					<description><![CDATA[His thesis was delivered in the flat, exhausted register of a man who has made the argument before. Ethiopia, he said, is not enduring a civil war but several at once, governed throughout by what he called an ethnic-elite lens that has hollowed out its institutions, its press and its courts. The portion he had come to document was the fate of the Orthodox Tewahedo Church — an institution he dated to the first century, older than the Roman and the Byzantine traditions, custodian of the Books of Enoch and Jubilees and of manuscripts that survive nowhere else on earth. For eight consecutive years, he charged, a coordinated campaign has been waged against Orthodox communities in parts of Ethiopia, and above all in Oromia.]]></description>
			
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<p class="kicker">Europe &middot; The Horn of Africa</p>
<h1>The Wall of Silence</h1>
<p class="standfirst">A prince of the old Solomonic line carried the case of Ethiopia&rsquo;s persecuted Orthodox Christians into the European Parliament. The institution has the power to act &mdash; and a long practice of looking away.</p>
<p class="byline">By <strong>E. Frashie</strong></p>
<p class="lead">The whole of southern Germany had stopped moving. Storms had taken down the railways, and the keynote speaker was late &mdash; he had changed trains four times and called it, when he finally reached the lectern, a small miracle that he had arrived at all. There is a metaphor in this that the afternoon did not need spelling out: a man had come to Brussels to testify to an erasure, and a collapsed timetable had nearly erased him from his own hearing. Prince Asfa-Wossen Asserate apologised for the delay, thanked the room, and proceeded to lay before it a charge sheet that the institutions of the West have spent the better part of a decade declining to read.</p>
<p>The hearing had been convened in the European Parliament under the intergroup on freedom of religion or belief, and organised by the European Centre for Law and Justice, a faith-aligned legal advocacy body whose report on the subject &mdash; bluntly titled <em class="term">The Silent Suffering of the Amhara People in Ethiopia</em> &mdash; was first published two years ago and has now been revised. The choice of witness was deliberate. Asfa-Wossen Asserate is a grand-nephew of Haile Selassie and a descendant of a Solomonic line that traces its claim to Aksum; he is also a German-based historian and author whose father was among the sixty senior officials executed on the Black Saturday of November 1974, while the prince, then a student, was stranded abroad. He has spent fifty years in exile. He is, in other words, the rare witness whom even an indifferent chamber finds difficult to wave away.</p>
<blockquote><p>He had come to testify to an erasure, and a collapsed rail timetable had nearly erased him from his own hearing.</p></blockquote>
<p>His thesis was delivered in the flat, exhausted register of a man who has made the argument before. Ethiopia, he said, is not enduring a civil war but several at once, governed throughout by what he called an ethnic-elite lens that has hollowed out its institutions, its press and its courts. The portion he had come to document was the fate of the Orthodox Tewahedo Church &mdash; an institution he dated to the first century, older than the Roman and the Byzantine traditions, custodian of the Books of Enoch and Jubilees and of manuscripts that survive nowhere else on earth. For eight consecutive years, he charged, a coordinated campaign has been waged against Orthodox communities in parts of Ethiopia, and above all in Oromia.</p>
<h2>The case, as he made it</h2>
<p>The specifics were grim and familiar to anyone who reads the Horn closely: churches burned to their foundations, some of them ancient repositories of manuscript heritage; priests, monks, deacons and nuns killed; crucifixes torn from the necks of worshippers, children among them, in footage that circulates widely and produces no arrests. The victims, the prince noted, are predominantly Amhara, but include Tigrayan, Gurage and Oromo Christians &mdash; a point worth holding onto, because it complicates any attempt to file the violence under ethnic politics alone. He reserved his sharpest language for what he described as the state&rsquo;s capture of the Church itself: the displacement of its canonical leadership, the installation of compliant bishops, and the dismantling of an autonomy that had survived emperors and Marxists alike. An institution that endured the Derg, in his telling, is now being asked to survive the peace.</p>
<p>On the gravest numbers, candour requires the distance the prince himself volunteered. His tally of nearly forty thousand casualties from federal air and drone strikes on Amhara across five months &mdash; some fourteen thousand of them dead, with further claims of mass rape, abduction and detention &mdash; was drawn, he conceded from the podium, from a single American monitor with few specialists on the country. Those figures sit far above anything in the independently documented record and should travel only with that caveat attached. The corroborated core of his case is narrower and no less damning. The Ethiopian Human Rights Commission has logged repeated mass killings of Orthodox Christians in the Arsi zone through this year; and in the final days of May, as the nation queued to vote, assailants moved through Arsi again, killing at least thirty-five worshippers and burning the Teleta Saint Gabriel church, a structure that had stood for a hundred and one years. The federal government blames the Oromo Liberation Army and the prime minister offered his condolences; the OLA denies responsibility and accuses forces aligned with the state. The attribution is contested. The dead are not.</p>
<blockquote><p>An institution that endured the Derg is now being asked to survive the peace.</p></blockquote>
<p>He widened the lens before closing. He cited the patriarch, Abune Matias, who in early May had pleaded with the country&rsquo;s leaders not to be ruthless with God&rsquo;s people. He noted that thousands of schools across Amhara stand damaged or destroyed and that, by the monitors he trusts, only about a fifth of the region&rsquo;s children now attend one. And he turned, pointedly, to the singer Teddy Afro, whose record <em class="term">Ethiora</em> &mdash; briefly the second-ranked album on a global chart &mdash; pleaded for reconciliation across faith and tribe, and whose premises were raided and whose managers were jailed for it. A confident state, the prince implied, does not fear a hymn to brotherhood.</p>
<h2>Six things he asked for</h2>
<div class="panel">
<h3>The prince&rsquo;s demands to the institutions of the West</h3>
<ol>
<li><strong>The United Nations</strong> &mdash; an independent Human Rights Council inquiry into the persecution of Orthodox Christians in Oromia, with particular attention to the Arsi massacres, the church burnings and the displacement of clergy.</li>
<li><strong>The United States</strong> &mdash; to invoke the International Religious Freedom Act and designate Ethiopia a Country of Particular Concern.</li>
<li><strong>The European Union</strong> &mdash; targeted sanctions on the officials within the government who have enabled, coordinated or shielded the perpetrators.</li>
<li><strong>The African Union</strong> &mdash; to end its institutional silence and acknowledge that a member state is committing crimes against its own religious minorities.</li>
<li><strong>The international criminal bodies</strong> &mdash; to begin the systematic documentation of evidence for prosecution, naming the prime minister and his senior security and political officials.</li>
<li><strong>The global media and civil society</strong> &mdash; to break the wall of silence, sustain coverage, and amplify the voices of those living in fear.</li>
</ol>
</div>
<h2>The institution he was addressing</h2>
<p>It is the fourth and sixth of these that the afternoon implicitly tested, because they were addressed to the very rooms in which he stood. Brussels is not wholly deaf to the subject: in January the Parliament passed its annual human-rights resolution and, for the first time, named &ldquo;Christianophobia&rdquo; as a global pattern. But a resolution is a sentence, and the prince had come to ask for verbs. The gap between the two is the whole of his complaint. The European Union has the legal machinery for targeted sanctions and the diplomatic standing to make an African Union member uncomfortable; what it has lacked, on Ethiopia, is the will to spend either.</p>
<p>He ended where such testimony always ends, with the roll-call of the previously ignored. The world expressed its remorse after Rwanda, after Sinjar, after Srebrenica, he said, and remorse that arrives after the fact is not justice; it is paperwork. The Church he had described has outlasted the fall of Aksum, the medieval invasions and the Derg&rsquo;s Marxist persecution across two thousand years. It would be a particular shame, he suggested, for it to be extinguished now, in plain sight, under the gaze of a world that possesses both the knowledge and the instruments to prevent it. Whether that world reaches for them, or reaches once more for the language of regret, is the only question the hearing actually posed &mdash; and the one it adjourned without answering.</p>
<blockquote><p>A resolution is a sentence, and the prince had come to ask for verbs.</p></blockquote>
<p class="end">&loz; &loz; &loz;</p>
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		<title>The Witness Expelled: Tsimdo, Tigray, and the Geometry of Addis Ababa’s Silence</title>
		<link>https://ethiopiantribune.com/2026/06/the-witness-expelled/</link>
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		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Ethiopian Tribune editor]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 14 Jun 2026 11:46:03 +0000</pubDate>
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					<description><![CDATA[On 11 June, Augustine Passilly La Croix‘s 30-year-old Horn of Africa correspondent, resident in Ethiopia since 2023 boarded a departure flight from Addis Ababa under compulsion. She had not resigned. She had not completed her assignment. Ethiopian authorities had revoked both her press accreditation and her residence permit, valid until September 2026, and issued an exit visa that expired within the week.  What preceded that departure was a sequence of actions that illuminates, with unusual clarity, the architecture of information control that Abiy Ahmed’s government has constructed around the Tigray theatre and why it has become structurally essential to maintain it.]]></description>
			
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<p>By E. Frashie | Ethiopian Tribune Columnist </p>



<p>On 11 June, <strong>Augustine</strong> <strong>Passilly</strong> La Croix‘s 30-year-old Horn of Africa correspondent, resident in Ethiopia since 2023 boarded a departure flight from Addis Ababa under compulsion. She had not resigned. She had not completed her assignment. Ethiopian authorities had revoked both her press accreditation and her residence permit, valid until September 2026, and issued an exit visa that expired within the week.  What preceded that departure was a sequence of actions that illuminates, with unusual clarity, the architecture of information control that Abiy Ahmed’s government has constructed around the Tigray theatre and why it has become structurally essential to maintain it.</p>



<p>Passilly had travelled to Shire, in Tigray, between 3 and 6 June, covering growing resident anxiety about the prospect of renewed conflict amid escalating political and military tensions in the region. On 4 June, while still in Shire, she was contacted by a representative of the Ethiopian Media Authority and ordered to return to Addis Ababa immediately. ￼ The next available flight was not until the 6th. She complied. Back in Addis, she was summoned to the EMA, where she met with four officials including Director General Haymanot Zeleke and Deputy Director General Yonatan Tesfaye. Officials questioned her decision to have travelled to Tigray amid the political and security tensions that have persisted since the TPLF reinstated the pre-war Tigray regional administration on 5 May. Her accreditation was suspended pending investigation. Two days later, the Immigration and Citizenship Services revoked both accreditation and residency. She departed Ethiopia on 11 June. ￼</p>



<p>No formal charge. No public explanation. A journalist basing her travel on a region officially accessible to foreign correspondents — access to Tigray, which had been restricted during parts of the post-war period, was reopened to foreign correspondents in 2024  was nonetheless expelled for using it. The message is structural, not procedural: the right to access and the exercise of that right are not the same thing, and the government reserves the right to punish the latter regardless of what its own regulations say about the former.</p>



<p><strong>What She Was Covering — and Why It Matters</strong></p>



<p>To understand the expulsion, one must understand what is happening in Tigray and what Addis Ababa most fears being reported from Shire.</p>



<p>The 2022 Pretoria Agreement between the government and the TPLF has unravelled in recent weeks. The TPLF has moved to restore its regional authority by reconstituting the pre-war legislative council, subsequently electing party chairman Debretsion Gebremichael as regional president. This followed the federal government unilaterally renewing the term of interim regional administration president General Tadesse Worede.  During early May 2026, the TPLF replaced the interim post-Tigray War administration in Mekelle a development that has significantly heightened tensions with the federal government, as the TPLF’s attempt to reassert control over Tigray is being seen as a direct challenge to Abiy Ahmed’s rule. </p>



<p>It is within this context of a shattered peace framework and a contested regional government that Passilly arrived in Shire on the eve of the federal snap election of 1 June, from which Tigray was again excluded. Despite both the government and the TPLF not favouring a formal return to war, the risks of renewed conflict are significant. The TPLF’s unilateral assertion of regional authority leaves little room for the federal government to back down without appearing weak.  Shire, sitting close to Tigray’s northern and western perimeters, is precisely where the geography of potential conflict converges. A French correspondent asking residents about the prospect of war in that location was, from Addis Ababa’s vantage point, not doing journalism. She was mapping the edges of a secret.</p>



<p><strong>Tsimdo: The Coalition Abiy Cannot Name Aloud</strong></p>



<p>The deeper reason why the Tigray theatre has become so ferociously guarded from foreign press is the emergence of what the Ethiopian government has labelled the Tsimdo alliance a coalition of forces increasingly coordinating against the Prosperity Party government and, by extension, against Abiy Ahmed personally.</p>



<p>The TPLF has reinforced relationships with Eritrea and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), both of which have strained relations with the Ethiopian government. Eritrean forces operate in Tigray, and Eritrea provides the TPLF with its only accessible allied border. Tigrayan fighters based in eastern Sudan have fought alongside the SAF. A recent coordination meeting in Port Sudan brought together Ethiopian opposition groups with pro-SAF Sudanese and Eritrean participants. ￼</p>



<p>Ethiopia’s government sees this ‘Tsimdo’ alliance as a threat, concerned about the risk to its border areas with Eritrea and Sudan, including Western Tigray known as Welkait by the Amhara and Benishangul-Gumuz.  ENDF officials warned the foreign diplomatic community that any attempt to operationalise the Tsimdo initiative would face retaliation from Ethiopia, describing it as a threat to national sovereignty linked to opposition. </p>



<p>The geometry here is significant. Tsimdo is not a formal military structure with a unified command. It is better understood as an alignment of adversarial interests: the Debretsion-led TPLF, Eritrea under Isaias Afwerki whose own strategic calculations have been in flux and the Sudanese Armed Forces, which has been fighting Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces in a civil war that has drawn in, on the other side, both Ethiopia and the UAE. These actors are more widely aligned with Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Turkey, and have sought to counter the growing regional influence of the UAE and Israel, who count Ethiopia and Somaliland among their partners. </p>



<p>The alliance is held together not by ideological coherence but by a shared opposition to Abiy’s regional project and, more broadly, to the UAE-anchored economic and security architecture that Addis Ababa has been building since the Abraham Accords era. To report from Shire to talk to residents about what they fear and what they know is to potentially document the operational texture of this coalition. That is what the EMA moved to prevent.</p>



<p><strong>A Pattern, Not an Incident</strong></p>



<p>The Passilly case is not an aberration. It is the latest instalment in a systematic effort to deny international media access to the conflict zones that would most embarrass Addis Ababa.</p>



<p>In February 2026, an accredited AFP journalist was barred from boarding a flight from Addis Ababa to Shire after airport security personnel said he lacked authorisation from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. That restriction followed Ethiopia’s decision not to renew the accreditation of three Reuters journalists after the agency published a report alleging the presence of a training base for Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces on Ethiopian territory.  The Reuters story was not a rumour: Ethiopia has reportedly facilitated support to the SAF’s enemies in Sudan the RSF and SPLM-N and has, according to Reuters and Yale’s Humanitarian Research Lab, provided a military training camp for the RSF in the Benishangul-Gumuz border region.  Stripping Reuters of accreditation was not a rebuttal. It was an eviction.</p>



<p>The Committee to Protect Journalists described the Reuters accreditation revocations as a violation of press freedom and documented what it called increasing restrictions targeting international media in Ethiopia. In December 2024, local journalists working for Deutsche Welle were permanently suspended. Accreditation renewals for BBC correspondents were denied. And in February 2026, Addis Standard and Wazema Radio had their licences revoked. ￼</p>



<p>Addis Standard, the most credible independent Anglophone outlet covering Ethiopian affairs is currently engaged in active legal proceedings before the Federal Court over the EMA’s regulatory conduct, with the case adjourned to 24 June. The Passilly expulsion lands in this context not as an isolated administrative decision but as a statement of intent: the government will protect the Tigray information environment from scrutiny at any cost, using whatever regulatory mechanism is available.</p>



<p><strong>The Logic of the Blackout</strong></p>



<p>There is an internal logic to all of this that deserves to be stated plainly.</p>



<p>Abiy Ahmed is seeking an election victory that enables his ruling Prosperity Party to reaffirm its mandate. It has also been suggested that an electoral victory could offer Abiy a route to enacting constitutional reforms that would strengthen central authority including creating an executive presidency and altering Ethiopia’s ethnic federal structure.  A return to war in Tigray, or the exposure of Ethiopia’s proxy activities in Sudan, would undermine the international legitimacy that makes that reform project viable. The EU has recently resumed direct budgetary support to Ethiopia. The United States has softened its arms export ban. These are the diplomatic dividends Abiy is spending and which documented atrocities, visible military escalation, or RSF training footage would instantly revoke.</p>



<p>The blackout over Tigray is therefore not primarily about military secrecy. It is about protecting a political economy built on selective international engagement. Augustine Passilly was expelled not because she had done something wrong under Ethiopian law. She was expelled because she had gone somewhere that the government cannot afford to have witnessed.</p>



<p><strong>What the Ethiopian Tribune Holds</strong></p>



<p>For those of us who cover this region, the Passilly case carries a specific resonance. The La Croix correspondent was not doing anything we would not do. She travelled to a tense northern town to ask residents whether they were afraid of another war. That is the irreducible minimum of journalism in a conflict zone.</p>



<p>The expulsion of a foreign correspondent a French citizen, accredited, resident, legally present represents the clearest possible statement that Addis Ababa intends to manage the Tigray narrative unilaterally, and that it is willing to burn diplomatic goodwill with European partners to do so. That the EMA has not yet offered a public explanation only deepens the signal: they do not feel compelled to justify themselves.</p>



<p>The Tsimdo alliance, whether or not it fully materialises as a military coalition, has already achieved one thing: it has forced the Ethiopian government into a defensive posture so rigid that a 30-year-old reporter covering civilian anxiety in Shire is considered a threat to national sovereignty. When a state reaches that point, the thing it is protecting is not security. It is impunity.</p>



<pre class="wp-block-preformatted"><em>News and reports compiled from available online sources, including Addis Standard, The Eastleigh Voice, Chatham House, the Committee to Protect Journalists, Al Jazeera, and the Europe External Programme with Africa (EEPA). All sourced material has been independently verified where possible.</em></pre>


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		<title>The Count That Doesn’t Add Up</title>
		<link>https://ethiopiantribune.com/2026/06/the-count-that-doesnt-add-up/</link>
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		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Ethiopian Tribune editor]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 13 Jun 2026 10:05:37 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[African News]]></category>
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					<description><![CDATA[ETHIOPIAN TRIBUNE Election Analysis — June 2026 The Count That Doesn’t Add Up Ten days...]]></description>
			
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<p class="has-text-align-right s4"><mark style="background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);color:#cf2e2e" class="has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color"><strong>ETHIOPIAN TRIBUNE</strong><em> Election Analysis — June 2026</em></mark></p>



<p class="s6"><strong>The Count That Doesn’t Add Up</strong></p>



<p class="s8"><em>Ten days after Ethiopians went to the polls, the National Election Board is still totting up the figures, the system that produces such lopsided results remains exactly as it was, and a flank of the opposition has pre-emptively disowned a parliament it may yet have the numbers to sit in.</em></p>



<p class="has-text-align-right s10"><em>By <strong>E Frashie</strong> Ethiopian Tribune Columnist </em></p>



<p class="s13"><strong>E</strong>thiopia’s seventh general election was, by the standards its own organisers set, a triumph of scale. Over 50 million registered voters; more than 10,900 candidates from 47 parties; a national holiday declared to encourage turnout. By the standards anyone else might apply, it has been a triumph of something else entirely: the art of taking a very long time to arrive at a very predictable answer.</p>



<p class="s13">Voting closed on 1 June. By NEBE’s own admission that evening, counting was still under way in Sidama, Gambella, Amhara and Somali, and final turnout figures had not been consolidated. On 6 June, the Board reported that 825 of 1,138 constituencies had declared results, citing the distance between polling stations and constituency centres and the sheer number of candidates as reasons for the lag. On 9 June &nbsp;a full week after polling day internally displaced people and military personnel cast their votes in a special round that, by NEBE’s own insiders, threatened to delay preliminary results still further. By 10 June, 1,008 constituencies had reached the national verification centre, with 446 of 501 House of Peoples’ Representatives seats and 562 of 638 regional council seats logged for “final scrutiny.” A day later, both NEBE and the African Union observer mission had pencilled in 11 June for the announcement of final results.</p>



<p class="s13">None of this should be read as evidence of unusual incompetence. It is, if anything, on brand. In 2005, results were delayed for weeks while complaints of vote-rigging were investigated investigations the opposition’s own representatives called “rigged from the start,” alleging their observers had been “harassed, threatened, barred and killed.” In 2010, the electoral board rejected calls for a re-run despite the ruling coalition and its allies taking 534 of 537 seats, a margin opposition leaders said “could not be accomplished without cheating.” The pattern across two decades is not that Ethiopia’s election commission is slow because it is overwhelmed. It is slow because slowness is the institutional environment in which adjustments, where they occur, are made &nbsp;and because nobody with the power to speed it up has ever had an interest in doing so.</p>



<p class="s15"><strong><mark style="background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);color:#cf2e2e" class="has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color">THE MODERNISATION THAT WASN’T</mark></strong></p>



<p class="s13">What makes the 2026 cycle different is the sheer quantity of money spent trying to fix exactly this problem. The “Strengthening Ethiopia’s Elections for Democratic Sustainability” programme (SEEDS2) a multi-donor basket funded by Austria, Denmark, Ireland, Spain, the United Kingdom and the Government of Ethiopia, administered through the UNDP &nbsp;was built explicitly around “electoral digitalisation.” UNDP signed a $40 million project document with NEBE to build “institutional and logistical capacity.” Japan contributed a further $3 million in equipment and systems “for the upcoming 7th General Election.” Ireland signed a separate €700,000 agreement aimed specifically at helping NEBE “adopt new technologies to lead a transparent and efficient electoral process.” The EU and Germany, via the KfW development bank, funded a parallel programme EURECS+ delivered jointly with UNDP and the International Foundation for Electoral Systems, providing “further logistical and procurement support” to NEBE’s operations.</p>



<p class="s13">The visible product of all this is Mirchaye (ምርጫዬ) the digital platform NEBE unveiled in January 2026 described at launch as “the first time the country is fully integrating digital technology into the election process,” covering voter and candidate registration, election management, and, in the words of the Federal Supreme Court’s president, present at the launch, intended to “enhance transparency and public trust.”</p>



<p class="s13">What Mirchaye (ምርጫዬ) did not touch, it turns out, is the part of the process that actually generates disputes. Registration, candidate vetting, the ballot-order lottery &nbsp;all digitalised, all relatively uncontroversial. Counting, constituency-level tabulation, and the transfer of results to Addis Ababa for “verification” all still conducted in essentially the form they took twenty years ago: paper postings at polling stations, physical transmission to constituency offices, and a national tally centre that receives results in batches over a period of days, occasionally weeks. Opposition parties identified this gap before the vote was even held. In a joint statement issued in January, an eight-party coalition &nbsp;including the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Party (EPRP), Hibir Ethiopia and the Wolayta National Movement rejected what they called an “unaudited digital election system,” accusing the Board of “uncoordinated increases in council seats and a lack of transparency.”</p>



<p class="s13">There are two ways to read this gap, and they are not mutually exclusive. The first is straightforwardly bureaucratic: a decade of donor funding produced visible, demonstrable, photographable modernisation &nbsp;apps, registration drives, ballot lotteries &nbsp;because those are the outputs donors can point to in their own annual reports, while the unglamorous, politically fraught work of building an auditable, end-to-end digital chain of custody for actual vote counts was either never prioritised or actively resisted by an institution with no incentive to make its own discretion harder to exercise. The second reading is less generous: that a tabulation process kept manual, opaque and slow is not a failure of modernisation but its precondition. An auditable digital count would generate a data trail far harder to adjust at the margins than a process whose authoritative record exists only in the moment a regional official reads a number aloud to a colleague in Addis Ababa. Either way, the tens of millions of dollars spent since 2019 modernising Ethiopia’s elections have left the single most consequential five days of the electoral calendar the count &nbsp;almost exactly as they found it.</p>



<p class="s15"><strong><mark style="background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);color:#cf2e2e" class="has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color">THE ARITHMETIC THAT NEVER CHANGES</mark></strong></p>



<p class="s13">None of this would matter nearly as much under a different electoral system. Ethiopia’s first-past-the-post arrangement, inherited from the 1995 constitution and never seriously revisited despite two decades of promises, converts even modest vote margins into landslide seat counts. In 2021, the Prosperity Party took 96.8% of federal parliamentary seats from roughly 90% of the vote itself a serious overcorrection, but nothing compared to the distortions at constituency level. In Addis Ababa that same year, opposition parties collectively won 32% of the vote and not a single seat. In 2015, the Semayawi Party took 16% of the vote in the capital and, again, nothing. In 2005, opposition parties won around 38% of the national vote and ended up with a small fraction of that share in seats.</p>



<p class="s13">The reform conversation is not new, and it has never gone anywhere. After the unrest of 2016, the government promised to revisit the electoral system; no measure followed. Years earlier, during the EPRDF-era political parties’ negotiation forum, the ruling party itself proposed a mixed system, 90% first-past-the-post, 10% proportional which would have required expanding the House of Peoples’ Representatives from 550 to 657 seats and amending the constitution. Even that modest concession was shelved. Academic studies of the system, going back to at least 2017, have concluded that first-past-the-post is “ill-suited to Ethiopia’s current needs and realities” and that a shift toward proportional representation the system used by roughly 130 countries, against fewer than 55 still using FPTP would produce more inclusive, more stable outcomes even under identical levels of political repression.</p>



<p class="s13">The reason none of this has moved is not mysterious. A ruling party that can convert a plurality into a supermajority under FPTP has no rational incentive to adopt a system that would convert the same plurality into, at best, a comfortable majority and, at worst, a coalition negotiation. Proportional representation would not, on its own, make Ethiopian elections free or fair, repression, detention and restricted media access would still shape who could compete. But it would make the result of that repression visible in a way FPTP currently launders into invisibility: a Prosperity Party that wins 60% of the vote under PR gets roughly 60% of the seats, prompting awkward questions about the other 40%. Under FPTP, that same 60% becomes 95% of the seats, and the other 40% becomes a rounding error. Donor money has, for fifteen years, flowed toward the parts of Ethiopia’s electoral architecture that are easiest to fund and least likely to threaten this arrangement. The one structural change that would actually rebalance outcomes was never going to be financed by the institution whose entire utility to the ruling coalition depends on its absence.</p>



<p class="s15"><strong><mark style="background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);color:#cf2e2e" class="has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color">“WE CAME TO DOCUMENT, NOT TO WIN”</mark></strong></p>



<p class="s13">It is against this backdrop that the position taken by the Coalition for Ethiopian Unity becomes legible not as an eccentric or self-defeating gesture, but as possibly the most coherent response on offer. In an interview given after the vote, Mister Silassie Tamerat, Secretary General of both the Coalition and the EPRP, laid out a position that amounts to participation without consent: contesting the election while refusing, in advance, to recognise its outcome.</p>



<p class="s13">The Coalition and the EPRP had set out roughly seven preconditions before the vote chiefly concerning media independence, the release of political prisoners, and an end to the fighting in Tigray, Amhara and Oromia. “Absolutely none” were met, Tamerat said; if anything, conditions deteriorated, with media outlets shut down, journalists abducted, and election debates censored or cut from broadcast. The decision to participate anyway was not unanimous. Within the EPRP’s Central Committee, a majority judged that continued participation “exposing the fraudulent electoral process from within” while “protecting the security and survival of our party organisation” outweighed the principle of boycott. <em>MistreSilasie</em> by her own account, was outvoted, and deferred to the decision as a matter of internal democratic discipline.</p>



<p class="s13">What followed the vote was the more consequential decision: a declaration that any Coalition or EPRP candidates who won seats would not take them up. The reasoning rests on a distinction between participating in an election and recognising a parliament.</p>



<figure class="wp-block-pullquote"><blockquote><p><em><mark style="background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);color:#ff6900" class="has-inline-color has-luminous-vivid-orange-color">“Entering a parliament that is born from a completely fraudulent and illegitimate process would imply that we recognise the parliament as legally and legitimately established. We do not believe that.”</mark></em></p><cite><em>— MistreSilasie Tamerat, Secretary General, Coalition for Ethiopian Unity / EPRP</em></cite></blockquote></figure>



<p class="s13">She pointed to the precedent of past opposition MPs “stripped of their immunity and thrown into prison simply because they held a dissenting political viewpoint” as evidence that the inside-the-system strategy had already been tried, and had “brought no real change.” Sitting in the chamber and “declaring our people are suffering,” in her words, “does not bring change.”</p>



<p class="s13">Asked whether refusing seats amounted to disrespecting the voters who cast ballots for Coalition candidates, Mistre-Silassie’s answer was unambiguous about priorities, if not entirely reassuring on the question of mandate: the Coalition, she said, had announced this position before polling day “even if we won a majority, we had no desire to enter parliament under these conditions” and had entered the race “merely to gather hard evidence,” not to contest for seats. Critics who suggest the rejection is sour grapes over an anticipated loss get short shrift: “We did not enter this process expecting to win… This has nothing to do with winning or losing.”</p>



<p class="s15"><strong><mark style="background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);color:#cf2e2e" class="has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color">A COALITION OF ONE MIND, MOSTLY</mark></strong></p>



<p class="s13">The recent interview of Mistre-Silassie &nbsp;with Ethiopian insider also surfaced and sought to manage reports of a split within the Coalition. The president of the Amhara Regional United Movement, one constituent member, had told the press the election had been conducted “smoothly and in a good manner” an assessment, Mistre-Silassie noted pointedly, that was “heavily amplified” by state-affiliated media. She was unambiguous in disowning the remark: the individual “was not authorised or delegated by the Coalition,” the Coalition’s “core principles” remained intact, and the organisation was “internally purifying” its ranks rather than fracturing. Any elected candidate who attempted to take a seat under the Coalition’s banner without its blessing, she said, would face “immediate” disciplinary and legal consequences.</p>



<p class="s13">It is worth taking at face value Mistre-Silassie’s own account of what worries her most &nbsp;because it is not, by her telling, the regime.</p>



<figure class="wp-block-pullquote"><blockquote><p><em><mark style="background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);color:#ff6900" class="has-inline-color has-luminous-vivid-orange-color">“Dealing with the tyranny of the ruling regime is something we expected. What deeply concerns and threatens to break my hope is the severe fragmentation within the opposition itself — fractured, petty, and constantly turning on one another.”</mark></em></p><cite><em>&nbsp;</em>Mistre-Silassie<em> Tamerat</em></cite></blockquote></figure>



<p class="s13">A planned peaceful protest for 30 April for which, under the constitution, only notification rather than permission was required was shelved for “logistical pressures and constraints” after a decision to act collectively rather than unilaterally; it never materialised, nor did any other rally. The EPRP, Mistre-Silassie said, held back its own planned action “to respect the principle of collective coalition solidarity.” The through-line across both the Amhara Regional United Movement episode and the failed protests is the same: a coalition whose member parties cannot reliably act in concert is, for practical purposes, several smaller oppositions wearing one name a condition that costs the ruling coalition nothing and the opposition everything.</p>



<p class="s15"><strong>THE VERDICT ON THE VERDICT</strong></p>



<p class="s13">On the international response, Mistre-Silassie’s framing inverts the usual Mistre-Silassie courtesies. Any observer mission that grants the election legitimacy, she argued, is “actively participating in prolonging the misery and suffering of the Ethiopian people.” She drew a distinction between observers who acknowledged the vote merely “took place” reserving final judgment, as the EU did, for a longer review &nbsp;and any body offering outright congratulations, noting with something close to satisfaction that many embassies briefed by the Coalition on election day had so far stayed silent. “We view that silence as a major diplomatic achievement for our cause.”</p>



<p class="s13">She was careful, notably, not to indict NEBE’s staff wholesale acknowledging “certain individual officials” who “genuinely tried their best to ensure a clean process” while insisting the institution as a whole had failed systemically, operating, like every other institution in the country, under “the suffocating influence and control of the ruling regime.” The war is the backdrop against which she places the entire exercise: Tigray “plunged into conflict for a second time,” most of Amhara unable to vote due to active combat, Oromia’s security situation outside major cities “non-existent.” Against that, talk of “free and fair” becomes, in her telling, close to obscene: “citizens are actively dying in a war zone and screaming for the killings to stop rather than asking for voting cards.”</p>



<p class="s13">On armed resistance, Tamerat drew a careful line denying coordination with armed groups while declining to condemn them, and issuing what reads as a warning dressed as an observation: “Every single time you violently close the doors to peaceful political struggle, you automatically open the doors to armed resistance… No one picks up a gun and flees to the jungle to die or kill out of choice; they do it out of absolute desperation when all peaceful options are stripped away.”</p>



<p class="s15"><strong>THE SYSTEM’S MOST DURABLE OUTPUT</strong></p>



<p class="s13">Put the three threads together and a single picture emerges, and it is not primarily a picture of fraud in the narrow sense ballot-stuffing, doctored tallies, the things that require forensic proof. It is a picture of a system whose component parts are individually defensible and collectively self-reinforcing. The count is slow because the institution that runs it has never had to make it fast: under first-past-the-post, even a contested, drawn-out tabulation poses no existential risk to the ruling coalition’s seat total, so there is no urgency to fix what donors have spent fifteen years and tens of millions of dollars failing to fix  because the fix that would matter, electoral reform, was never on the table to begin with. And the opposition’s response to all of this is not unified resistance but fragmentation: a Coalition that agreed on seven preconditions, watched none of them met, then split three ways over what to do next participate to expose, boycott to preserve legal standing, or some uneasy combination of both, followed by a post-hoc refusal to take the seats that participation might have won.</p>



<p class="s13">That fragmentation is not incidental to the system described above. It may be its most reliable product. A ruling party facing a unified opposition demanding proportional representation, an end to detentions, and international observers with teeth would face a genuine cost-benefit calculation. A ruling party facing a half-dozen opposition factions arguing among themselves about whether occupying five parliamentary seats constitutes principled resistance or collaboration faces no such calculation at all. Tamerat’s own diagnosis that internal opposition fragmentation, not regime pressure, is what “keeps her up at night” &nbsp;may be the most analytically honest sentence to emerge from Ethiopia’s seventh general election. Everything else, the slow count included, was entirely predictable.</p>



<p class="s15"><strong><mark style="background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);color:#cf2e2e" class="has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color">THE REGION THE ELECTION FORGOT</mark></strong></p>



<p class="s13">For TPLF supporters, the chronology of NEBE’s dealings with their party reads less like routine regulation than personal score-settling. Birtukan Mideksa rose to prominence as a leader of the Coalition for Unity and Democracy in the disputed 2005 election &nbsp;conducted under an EPRDF government in which the TPLF was the dominant faction and was subsequently imprisoned, controversially re-arrested after a conditional pardon, and spent years in American exile before Abiy brought her home in 2018 to chair the very board that had once certified the election that led to her imprisonment. When NEBE, under her chairmanship, cancelled the TPLF’s registration in January 2021 &nbsp;weeks after the federal offensive into Tigray began TPLF sympathisers read the timing as more than coincidence: a woman the old TPLF-dominated order had jailed was now the one stripping that same party of its legal existence. The institutional posture has since outlasted her TPLF’s final de-registration came in May 2025 under her successor, Melatework Hailu but the original grievance, whatever its merits, has never gone away in Mekelle.</p>



<p class="s13">Its consequences are visible in real time. Tigray did not participate in the 1 June election at all: Debretsion Gebremichael announced in May that no vote would be held in the region, arguing large parts of it remain outside TPLF administration and that Tigray’s territory is “incomplete” pending unresolved disputes &nbsp;itself a legacy of NEBE’s 2021 decision and the deregistration that followed. While NEBE in Addis Ababa spent the second week of June finalising a result that hands the Prosperity Party its expected supermajority, a very different kind of delegation was landing in Mekelle. On 11 June, the African Union’s Olusegun Obasanjo one of the architects of the 2022 Pretoria Agreement &nbsp;flew in with British and Australian diplomats for emergency talks with Debretsion, who has installed himself as Tigray’s regional president following the TPLF’s unilateral revival of the pre-war regional council, a move the federal government has refused to recognise.</p>



<p class="s13">The same day, in Al Jazeera, Getachew Reda &nbsp;the former TPLF spokesman who broke with the party, led the interim administration, and now advises Abiy on regional affairs co-wrote with the federal government’s own Pretoria negotiator, Redwan Hussein, a piece warning that the “rump TPLF,” in what they called an Eritrean-backed “Tsimdo alliance,” had “openly abrogated the Pretoria Agreement and is now gearing up for active and open hostility against the federal government.” Whatever one makes of that framing &nbsp;and it is very much the view from the side that now controls Addis Ababa’s narrative on Tigray, not TPLF’s &nbsp;the fact that the AU’s most senior mediator felt the need to be in Mekelle that same week speaks for itself.</p>



<p class="s13">The result is a grim symmetry. Ethiopia just completed an election in which the region with the most unresolved grievance against the federal state didn’t vote at all, conducted by an institution whose history with that region’s dominant party is, by the account of that party’s supporters, inseparable from the personal history of the woman who once ran it. The seventh general election may produce a parliament. Whether it produces a country at peace with itself by the time that parliament sits is, as of this week, genuinely an open question.   </p>


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		<title>The Church They Cannot Name</title>
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		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Ethiopian Tribune editor]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 04 Jun 2026 09:10:29 +0000</pubDate>
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					<description><![CDATA[How the Ethiopian Orthodox Tewahedo Church became a target without a headline and why the massacres in Arsi indicted not only the perpetrators, but the silence of the world. The Amhara Association of America's Robel Alemu, speaking from Toronto, was the exception and the exception proved the rule. In the space of approximately ninety seconds, he delivered the most substantive account of the humanitarian catastrophe in Ethiopia offered by any participant across the entire twenty-nine minute broadcast. He named the Lemkin Institute's active genocide alert for the Amhara people. He cited the Amhara Association's own documentation of more than 370 aerial strikes by state forces against civilian infrastructure health centres, schools, places of worship. He referenced a BBC report documenting mass rape in the Amhara region, with the majority of cases implicating government forces. He noted UNICEF's figure of nine million children out of school nationally, with half drawn from Amhara. And then and this is the sentence that this essay has been building toward he stated directly that on election day itself, an active massacre was taking place in the Arsi area, implicating local militants, with attacks continuing against ethnic Amhara and Orthodox Christian communities.]]></description>
			
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<p class="MsoNormal"><strong>ETHIOPIAN TRIBUNE</strong></p>



<p class="MsoNormal"><em>Analysis &amp; Commentary | Horn of Africa Affairs</em></p>



<p class="MsoNormal"><strong>SPECIAL REPORT: FAITH, ETHNICITY &amp; ERASURE</strong></p>



<p class="MsoNormal"><strong><mark style="background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);color:#cf2e2e" class="has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color">The Church They Cannot Name</mark></strong></p>



<p class="MsoNormal"><em>How the Ethiopian Orthodox Tewahedo Church became a target without a headline and why the massacres in Arsi indicted not only the perpetrators, but the silence of the world</em></p>



<p class="MsoNormal"><em>4 June 2026</em></p>



<p class="MsoNormal"><strong><mark style="background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);color:#cf2e2e" class="has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color">WHEN</mark> </strong>a ten-year-old boy was shot in a teff field in the Merti district of Arsi, his photograph travelled briefly across Ethiopian social media before disappearing entirely from the international press. His leg was amputated. His name was not reported by the BBC. Al Jazeera did not dispatch a correspondent. CNN did not file a segment. The child survived; the silence was complete.</p>



<p class="MsoNormal">The date was November 2025. In the weeks surrounding that shooting, more than 140 Orthodox Christian civilians had been killed in the Sherka district of Arsi alone since September. By late October, coordinated attacks across Guna, Merti, Sherka and Holonto districts, carried out on the night of the 24th to the 25th had left at least 24 dead in a single assault, including a toddler and an 86-year-old. The total across October reached 33 confirmed dead. Church representatives in the Arsi archdiocese told reporters that over 200 believers had been killed in Merti district in recent years. Local youths who attempted to share information about the killings were subsequently arrested.</p>



<p class="MsoNormal">The Oromia regional administration&#8217;s response was immediate and unambiguous. The Arsi Zone Administrator, Ibrahim Kedir, declared that no one had been killed. The Oromia regional police described the area as &#8216;peaceful.&#8217; The Inter-Religious Council of Ethiopia, dispatched to investigate, released a report claiming the victims &#8216;were not from one faith group&#8217; a formulation that enraged the dioceses in the region and was characterised by prominent Ethiopian political figures as an attempt to dissolve the religious character of what had occurred into a neutralised, depoliticised abstraction.</p>



<figure class="wp-block-pullquote"><blockquote><p><strong><em><mark style="background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);color:#cf2e2e" class="has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color">When governments deny the dead and international media looks away, silence does not merely describe an absence. It becomes a policy.</mark></em></strong></p></blockquote></figure>



<p class="MsoNormal">This essay is concerned with that silence not primarily as a moral failure, though it is certainly that, but as a structural and politically explicable phenomenon. To understand why Arsi received no meaningful international coverage, one must first understand what the Ethiopian Orthodox Tewahedo Church represents in the contemporary political imagination of Ethiopia&#8217;s ruling dispensation, and why it has become strategically advantageous for multiple actors domestic and foreign to render Orthodox Christian suffering legible only through the distorting lens of Amhara ethnic politics.</p>



<p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p>



<p class="MsoNormal"><strong><mark style="background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);color:#cf2e2e" class="has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color">I. THE LABEL AS WEAPON</mark></strong></p>



<p class="MsoNormal">Professor Girma Berhanu, writing in these pages on 3 June 2026, observed that a painful and recurring pattern had emerged across major international outlets: when Ethiopia is discussed, Amhara perspectives are minimised, generalised, or excluded. The observation is precise, but the problem it diagnoses runs deeper than representation. The mechanism by which Amhara voices are excluded from international discourse is inseparable from the mechanism by which the Ethiopian Orthodox Church is persistently mis-categorised and it is this mis-categorisation that makes violence against Orthodox Christians so consistently invisible.</p>



<p class="MsoNormal">The EOTC is, by any historical reckoning, a pan-Ethiopian institution. Founded in the fourth century, it predates the category of &#8216;Amhara&#8217; as a political identity by more than a millennium. Its liturgical tradition, the Ge&#8217;ez rite, is shared across Tigrayan, Amhara, and many Oromo communities. Approximately forty-five per cent of the Oromo population is Christian, and Orthodox Christians account for a substantial proportion of that figure. The Church&#8217;s membership spans ethnic and linguistic lines in ways that the contemporary ethnic-federal architecture of Ethiopia is systematically unable to acknowledge.</p>



<p class="MsoNormal">Yet the political weaponisation of ethnicity since the early 1990s has produced a powerful counter-narrative: that the EOTC is, at its core, a vehicle of Amhara cultural supremacy, a relic of imperial domination that must be reformed, broken, or subordinated to achieve genuine multiethnic democracy. This framing, promoted by elements within Oromo ethnonationalist discourse and by certain international analysts sympathetic to it, has served a double function. It delegitimises Orthodox Christian civic action as ethnic chauvinism rather than religious conviction, and it provides intellectual cover for state and non-state actors engaged in what can only be described as targeted violence against the Church and its adherents.</p>



<p class="MsoNormal">The consequences are empirically documented. A 2025 research paper published in the peer-reviewed journal <em>Humanities</em> concluded that the weaponisation of ethnic politics since 1994 had enabled religion to be instrumentalised, resulting in &#8216;the demonisation of the Amhara people and, by extension, the EOTC.&#8217; A January 2026 Rift Valley Institute report noted that the security crisis had &#8216;disproportionately affected new regional minorities, in particular the Amharas living outside the Amhara region and Orthodox Christians, where they are a religious minority,&#8217; and linked this directly to the political logic of ethnonational insurgency particularly in Oromia, where violence was being &#8216;strategically deployed to disrupt political alliances.&#8217;</p>



<p class="MsoNormal">Yet this body of evidence has produced almost no sustained international journalism. The question is why.</p>



<p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p>



<p class="MsoNormal"><strong><mark style="background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);color:#cf2e2e" class="has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color">II. ARSI AS MICROCOSM</mark></strong></p>



<p class="MsoNormal">The Arsi zone of Oromia is not, for those familiar with Ethiopian ecclesiastical history, an incidental location. It is part of the Arsi Archdiocese, one of the most historic and deeply rooted of the Church&#8217;s regional structures. Orthodox Christians in Arsi are not recent settlers; many are the descendants of communities who have inhabited the region for centuries, their faith woven into the landscape through churches, monasteries, and the rhythms of the liturgical calendar.</p>



<p class="MsoNormal">What occurred in Arsi between September and November 2025 was not, according to multiple independent sources, a spontaneous outbreak of violence. It was sustained, coordinated, and geographically targeted. The attacks in Sherka, Guna, Merti and Holonto were carried out by armed groups operating with a consistency of method targeting farmers in their fields, entering homes at night, shooting worshippers that left church representatives describing the pattern in terms of deliberate ethnic and religious cleansing. The Oromo Liberation Army, which has operated extensively in Oromia since at least 2018, was identified in multiple reports as responsible for or implicated in the attacks.</p>



<p class="MsoNormal">In February 2026, the violence continued. On the 26th of that month, armed attackers struck a market in East Arsi, killing twenty Orthodox Christians and one Muslim guard. Two days later, gunmen entered a church and opened fire on those gathered for worship. By April, the International Christian Concern was documenting a pattern of killings, looting and forced displacement that it characterised not as isolated incidents but as a growing and repeated programme of violence. Thousands of Orthodox Christians were by that point displaced from their homes across East Arsi Zone.</p>



<p class="MsoNormal">The Crown Council of Ethiopia, in a statement issued on 31 October 2025, noted with particular gravity that &#8216;in recent years, the targeted killing of Orthodox Christians in Ethiopia has become a regular occurrence,&#8217; citing additionally the massacre of monks at the Debre Kewakibt Ziquala monastery in June 2025, where four monks were abducted and killed. The statement called upon authorities to protect the faithful from &#8216;those elements who continue to persecute and kill people, targeting them on the basis of religion, ethnicity or any other criteria.&#8217; No major international news organisation covered the Crown Council&#8217;s statement.</p>



<figure class="wp-block-pullquote"><blockquote><p><strong><em><mark style="background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);color:#cf2e2e" class="has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color">The Oromia authorities said &#8216;no one was killed.&#8217; The international press agreed, not by disputing the claim, but by ignoring the question entirely.</mark></em></strong></p></blockquote></figure>



<p class="MsoNormal">The Ethiopian Human Rights Commission, no radical body, confirmed in November 2025 that it had gathered information on killings in East Arsi&#8217;s Guna, Merti, Sherka and Holonto districts, and that five further farmers had been killed in Merti in early November, one of them a ten-year-old child. It confirmed that armed groups were responsible. The Inter-Religious Council&#8217;s counter-report, attempting to muddy the religious character of the targeting, was denounced by the affected dioceses as an exercise in institutional erasure.</p>



<p class="MsoNormal">None of this, not the numbers, not the official confirmation, not the children in hospital, not the displaced thousands generated a single substantive segment on the BBC&#8217;s Africa coverage, on Al Jazeera&#8217;s Ethiopia desk, or on CNN&#8217;s international broadcasting. The question of why requires more than an observation about editorial oversight.</p>



<p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p>



<p class="MsoNormal"><strong><mark style="background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);color:#cf2e2e" class="has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color">III. THE POLITICAL ARCHITECTURE OF INVISIBILITY</mark></strong></p>



<p class="MsoNormal">There is no single conspiracy that explains the erasure of Orthodox Christian suffering in Arsi from international consciousness. What there is, instead, is a convergence of structural incentives, ideological assumptions, and access dynamics that together produce a reliable outcome: the disappearance of this violence from the global record.</p>



<p class="MsoNormal">The first and most important factor is the framing problem identified above. Because the EOTC has been successfully coded in much international analysis as an &#8216;Amhara institution,&#8217; violence against its members is perceived however unconsciously as an episode in the ethnic conflict between Amhara and Oromo communities. This coding converts what is, at its core, a programme of religiously and ethnically targeted killing into a &#8216;both sides&#8217; conflict, one that international editors have learned to treat with the caution they apply to all contested ethnic disputes. The victims become combatants by proxy; their faith becomes a political faction; and the massacre becomes an episode in a war, rather than a crime against a congregation.</p>



<p class="MsoNormal">The second factor is access. The Oromia regional government, under the political architecture of Abiy Ahmed&#8217;s Prosperity Party, has not been hospitable to independent journalism in areas where OLA-linked violence is occurring. Journalists who have attempted to report from Sherka, Merti or Holonto have encountered military checkpoints, obstruction, and the risk that local sources will be arrested as indeed happened to youths who shared information about the November killings. Without boots on the ground, international desks default to official sources; and the official Oromia sources were saying, unambiguously, that nothing had happened.</p>



<p class="MsoNormal">The third factor is what might be called the denominational blind spot. It is a fact, uncomfortable for some, that violence against Orthodox Christian communities in Africa receives systematically less international media attention than equivalent violence against Muslim communities, or against Protestant minorities in authoritarian contexts. This is not primarily a conspiracy; it reflects the distribution of journalistic focus, the preoccupations of editorial boards, and the particular attentiveness that certain NGO networks have cultivated with major news organisations. Orthodox Christianity is perceived, in much of the global North, as a conservative and somewhat archaic tradition. This perception colours coverage in ways that its practitioners rarely have the platform to contest.</p>



<p class="MsoNormal">The fourth factor is one that Professor Berhanu&#8217;s essay illuminates with particular clarity: the structural exclusion of Amhara voices from the panels, briefings and expert circuits that feed international journalism. When Al Jazeera assembles a panel on Ethiopian democracy, and no Amhara representative is present, the conversation proceeds without the constituency that has been most directly subjected to organised violence under the current political order. When Mehdi Hasan interviews Getachew Reda on the future of Ethiopia, and the Amhara dimension of the post-Tigray settlement is not raised, the absence shapes what millions of viewers understand to be the relevant landscape of Ethiopian politics. The silence in Arsi and the silence on international panels are not separate phenomena. They are the same phenomenon.</p>



<figure class="wp-block-pullquote"><blockquote><p><strong><em><mark style="background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);color:#cf2e2e" class="has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color">Two silences, one structure: the voice not invited to the panel and the village not visited by the correspondent are governed by the same logic of erasure.</mark></em></strong></p></blockquote></figure>



<p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p>



<p class="MsoNormal"><strong><mark style="background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);color:#cf2e2e" class="has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color">IV. THE PROSPERITY PARTY AND THE ASSAULT ON THE CHURCH</mark></strong></p>



<p class="MsoNormal">To understand Arsi fully, one must situate it within the broader strategy of the ruling Prosperity Party towards the EOTC, a strategy that has proceeded along two tracks simultaneously. The first is institutional: the engineering, in January 2023, of an illegal parallel synod in Oromia and the Southern Nations, orchestrated by three bishops led by Abune Sawiros and, according to extensive and credible reporting, backed by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed&#8217;s inner circle. The goal of this schism was the fragmentation of the Church along ethnic lines, converting it from a pan-Ethiopian institution into a contested space divided between an &#8216;Oromia Church&#8217; and a rump &#8216;Amhara Church.&#8217; This effort ultimately failed, defeated by mass non-violent civic action from Orthodox Christians across the country. But the attempt was revelatory.</p>



<p class="MsoNormal">The second track is security: the failure, whether through incapacity or design, to protect Orthodox Christian communities in Oromia from the militia violence that has killed hundreds in recent years. EOTC leaders from Arsi and Bale reported more than 200 Orthodox killed since 2024, communities frequently described in official and semi-official communications as &#8216;Amhara Christians&#8217; a label that, once applied, removes them from the category of Ethiopian citizens requiring state protection and relocates them in the category of ethnic encroachers whose presence in Oromo land is itself a political provocation.</p>



<p class="MsoNormal">This is the mechanism by which the label becomes lethal. When an Orthodox Christian farmer in Arsi is killed, and the official response characterises the dead as &#8216;Amhara Christians in Oromia,&#8217; the state has not merely misidentified the victim. It has pre-authorised the crime by establishing that the victim&#8217;s presence was itself anomalous, and that the violence visited upon them is a legible if regrettable consequence of ethnic geographic politics. The victim is twice erased: first in death, then in classification.</p>



<p class="MsoNormal">This logic is not unique to Ethiopia. It is the grammar of all ethnic cleansing operations in the modern era, from the Balkans to Myanmar: the target community is first categorised as alien, then their victimisation is absorbed into the narrative of an ethnic dispute, and finally the international community, confronted with a &#8216;both sides&#8217; story, opts for studied neutrality. The EOTC and its communities in Arsi are living through a version of this grammar. The unique feature of the Ethiopian case is that the Church against which it is being deployed is among the oldest continuous Christian institutions on earth.</p>



<p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p>



<p class="MsoNormal"><strong><mark style="background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);color:#cf2e2e" class="has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color">V. WHAT THE WORLD CHOSE NOT TO SEE</mark></strong></p>



<p class="MsoNormal">There is a standard objection to the argument presented here, and it deserves a direct response. That objection runs as follows: Ethiopia is a country with multiple simultaneous crises the Tigray war, the Amhara conflict, the Oromo insurgency, the Somali border tensions. International media has limited bandwidth; not every atrocity can receive equal coverage; and the absence of reporting on Arsi reflects resource constraints rather than ideological selection.</p>



<p class="MsoNormal">This objection would be more persuasive if the same standard were applied consistently. It was not applied to the June 2025 bombing of the Mar Elias Church in Damascus, Syria, which received extensive and immediate coverage across every major Western outlet, with detailed analysis, expert commentary, and on-the-ground reporting within hours. That attack killed thirty people. In Arsi, over a comparable period, more than 140 were confirmed dead in Sherka alone and the silence was total.</p>



<p class="MsoNormal">The differential is not explained by resource constraints. It is explained by the differential legibility of victims. Syrian Orthodox Christians killed by an ISIS-linked bomber fit a recognisable international narrative: the endangered Christian minority, the Islamist perpetrator, the secular state struggling to contain extremism. This narrative has an established audience, an established set of NGO interlocutors, and an established emotional grammar in Western journalism. Ethiopian Orthodox Christians killed by OLA-linked militants in a region governed by a ruling party whose leader received the Nobel Peace Prize do not fit that narrative. Their suffering requires context that most editors are unwilling to supply and most correspondents have not been briefed to seek.</p>



<p class="MsoNormal">This is what Professor Berhanu means when he writes that &#8216;silence can become part of the story&#8217; and that &#8216;selective attention can become a form of erasure.&#8217; The erasure of Arsi from the international record is not a passive omission. It is an active consequence of the architecture of international attention and that architecture, as he rightly notes, shapes diplomatic conversations, humanitarian priorities, and historical memory.</p>



<p class="MsoNormal">It is worth noting, in this context, the tribute Professor Berhanu pays to photojournalist Jemal Countess and journalist Jeff Pearce individuals who have pursued the truth about anti-Orthodox and anti-Amhara violence in Ethiopia at personal and professional cost. That such figures must be mentioned as exceptions, rare exemplars of integrity in a field that has largely looked away, is itself a measure of how far the norm has departed from what journalism is supposed to be.</p>



<p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p>



<p class="MsoNormal"><strong><mark style="background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);color:#cf2e2e" class="has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color">VI. THE OLDEST CHURCH IN THE WORLD AND THE NEWEST SILENCE</mark></strong></p>



<p class="MsoNormal">The Ethiopian Orthodox Tewahedo Church is not a political party. It is not a militia. It is not an instrument of any ethnic group&#8217;s hegemony, however vigorously that claim is prosecuted by its enemies. It is a living, ancient institution with a canon of scripture that predates the Arab conquest of North Africa, with illuminated manuscripts that predate the printing press, with a monastic tradition in Lalibela and on Lake Tana that has preserved theological and cultural knowledge through every catastrophe that the Horn of Africa has endured over seventeen centuries.</p>



<p class="MsoNormal">That this institution is under assault through schism, through land confiscation, through the killing of its priests and monks and farmers and children in their fields is a matter of historical record. That this assault has been made possible, in part, by an international discourse that has accepted the framing of the Church as &#8216;the Amhara institution&#8217; is a matter of consequence that extends beyond Ethiopia&#8217;s borders.</p>



<p class="MsoNormal">Because if the oldest church in sub-Saharan Africa can be rendered invisible by the application of an ethnic label if two hundred dead in a single district of Oromia can be waved away by a regional administrator saying &#8216;no one was killed,&#8217; and the world&#8217;s major newsrooms can nod along in silence then we have learned something important about the limits of the international community&#8217;s commitment to the protection of religious minorities and the documentation of atrocity.</p>



<p class="MsoNormal">What occurred in Arsi between September 2025 and April 2026 was not a communal conflict. It was not a land dispute. It was not the regrettable by-product of a complex civil war in which all sides bear responsibility. It was, as the Church&#8217;s own representatives described it, the targeted and sustained killing of a community on the basis of their religion and their ethnicity a campaign of elimination conducted in broad daylight, denied by the authorities responsible for the area&#8217;s security, and ignored by the institutions that exist, in theory, to bear witness.</p>



<p class="MsoNormal">The witnesses who did speak the dioceses of Arsi, the Crown Council, the Ethiopian Human Rights Commission, the International Christian Concern, the few independent journalists who managed to file from the ground spoke into a void. This essay is an attempt, however belated, to fill some part of that void. Not because the filling of a void in a periodical constitutes accountability. But because accountability begins, always, with the refusal to be silent.</p>



<p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p>



<p class="MsoNormal"><strong><mark style="background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);color:#cf2e2e" class="has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color">VII. THE PANEL THAT PROVED THE POINT</mark></strong></p>



<p class="MsoNormal">On the occasion of Ethiopia&#8217;s June 2026 general election, the broadcaster TRT World&#8217;s programme The Newsmakers aired a segment titled &#8216;Ethiopia&#8217;s Abiy Ahmed seeks re-election amid fears of renewed civil war.&#8217; It ran for approximately twenty-nine minutes. It is, for the purposes of this essay, a document of considerable instructive value not primarily for what it said, but for what it demonstrated about the architecture of international media representation of Ethiopia in practice, in real time, before a global audience.</p>



<p class="MsoNormal">The programme was structured in two parts. The first was a solo interview with Getachew Reda, identified on screen as adviser to Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed on Eastern African affairs and former president of the Tigray interim regional administration. The second was a panel of three analysts: Maza Gidei Gebremedhin, described as an international relations specialist, speaking from Washington; Robel Alemu, senior analyst and director of communications at the Amhara Association of America, speaking from Toronto; and Tsedale Lemma, journalist and founder of the Addis Standard newspaper, speaking from Frankfurt.</p>



<p class="MsoNormal">The presenter introduced this arrangement as a broadening of the discussion. In terms of the claims this essay has advanced, it was something rather more precise than that: it was a live demonstration of the erasure thesis, conducted under studio lighting, with credentials displayed, and streamed to an international audience.</p>



<figure class="wp-block-pullquote"><blockquote><p><strong><em><mark style="background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);color:#cf2e2e" class="has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color">One Amhara voice. Two Tigrayan voices. One figure from a publication with a documented record of minimising Amhara suffering. This was presented as &#8216;balance.&#8217;</mark></em></strong></p></blockquote></figure>



<p class="MsoNormal">Begin with Getachew Reda. His credentials as the interview&#8217;s primary subject were presented straightforwardly: adviser to Abiy Ahmed, former Tigray interim president. What the introduction did not dwell upon and what the presenter did not press was the particular quality of the political journey being described. Getachew Reda is a former senior official of the Tigray People&#8217;s Liberation Front: the organisation whose nearly three-decade dominance of Ethiopian politics Abiy Ahmed&#8217;s rise was explicitly designed to end, and whose subsequent armed conflict with the federal government produced hundreds of thousands of dead, the displacement of millions, and documented atrocities against civilian populations in Tigray, Amhara, and Afar alike. He is now, in the service of that same Abiy Ahmed, a figure of the federal establishment commenting on the fairness of an election from which the communities most subjected to state violence were systematically excluded.</p>



<p class="MsoNormal">When asked about the Amhara and Oromia regions, Getachew&#8217;s framing was revealing in its precision. He acknowledged &#8216;low-intensity conflicts&#8217; in both areas, but his concern was not with the casualties or the humanitarian toll. His concern was with the fact that armed opposition elements were attempting to prevent people from voting. The violence itself the aerial strikes, the displacement, the killings was not his subject. The vote was his subject. Amhara suffering, in this framing, was relevant only insofar as it furnished evidence of the opposition&#8217;s illegitimacy, and irrelevant insofar as it might have furnished evidence of the government&#8217;s.</p>



<p class="MsoNormal">This is a form of rhetorical erasure so efficient that it barely registers as such. The dead are not denied; they are simply not mentioned. The conversation moves on. The presenter, to her credit, noted that &#8216;all parties involved have been accused of various atrocities.&#8217; But this is the standard diplomatic hedge of professional broadcast journalism the gesture toward balance that preserves the impression of impartiality while declining to pursue the specificity that would make the accusation land.</p>



<p class="MsoNormal">Then came the panel. And here the structural problem identified by Professor Berhanu the systematic exclusion of Amhara voices from the expert circuits that feed international journalism was displayed with a clarity that no amount of editorial analysis can improve upon. Of the three panellists assembled to represent &#8216;opposition&#8217; perspectives on the Ethiopian election, two were Tigrayan and one was the founder of a publication whose coverage has repeatedly been criticised, including by contributors to this newspaper, for insufficient engagement with the specific character of anti-Amhara and anti-Orthodox violence in Oromia.</p>



<p class="MsoNormal">The Amhara Association of America&#8217;s Robel Alemu, speaking from Toronto, was the exception and the exception proved the rule. In the space of approximately ninety seconds, he delivered the most substantive account of the humanitarian catastrophe in Ethiopia offered by any participant across the entire twenty-nine minute broadcast. He named the Lemkin Institute&#8217;s active genocide alert for the Amhara people. He cited the Amhara Association&#8217;s own documentation of more than 370 aerial strikes by state forces against civilian infrastructure health centres, schools, places of worship. He referenced a BBC report documenting mass rape in the Amhara region, with the majority of cases implicating government forces. He noted UNICEF&#8217;s figure of nine million children out of school nationally, with half drawn from Amhara. And then and this is the sentence that this essay has been building toward he stated directly that on election day itself, an active massacre was taking place in the Arsi area, implicating local militants, with attacks continuing against ethnic Amhara and Orthodox Christian communities.</p>



<p class="MsoNormal">Arsi. Named. On international television. On the day of the Ethiopian election.</p>



<figure class="wp-block-pullquote"><blockquote><p><strong><em><mark style="background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);color:#cf2e2e" class="has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color">Robel Alemu named Arsi on international television. Within seconds, the presenter moved to Maza on Eritrea. Neither of his fellow panellists ever returned to a single word he had said.</mark></em></strong></p></blockquote></figure>



<p class="MsoNormal">The presenter thanked him and pivoted immediately to Maza Gidei Gebremedhin on the subject of a potential Ethiopia-Eritrea war. The question of Arsi the massacres, the aerial strikes, the genocide alert, the nine million children was not returned to. Not by the presenter. Not by Maza, whose response routed the conversation firmly through the prism of Tigrayan victimhood under a prospective Ethiopia-Eritrea conflict, emphasising that any future war would be fought &#8216;on the lines of Tigray, on the bodies of Tigrayan women, on the bodies of Tigrayan men.&#8217; Not by Tsedale Lemma, who offered a fluent and well-informed analysis of the geopolitical dangers of Abiy Ahmed&#8217;s Red Sea ambitions important analysis, accurately framed but who did not once, across the entirety of her contributions, acknowledge the existence of the Arsi massacre, the Lemkin genocide alert, the documented rape campaign in Amhara, or the aerial strikes on civilian targets.</p>



<p class="MsoNormal">It is important to state clearly what this observation is not. It is not a claim that Tigrayan suffering is less important than Amhara suffering, or that Tsedale Lemma&#8217;s analysis was without merit, or that the TRT programme was uniquely or exceptionally deficient. The suffering in Tigray was real, massive, and is still unresolved. The analysis offered by Maza and Tsedale was, in its own terms, coherent and informed.</p>



<p class="MsoNormal">The observation is more precise and more structural than a comparison of suffering. It is this: a programme that assembled three &#8216;opposition&#8217; analysts to comment on an Ethiopian election in which Amhara communities were among the most severely affected by state violence managed to produce, through the composition of its panel and the direction of its questioning, a broadcast in which the one representative of those communities stated his case once and was not heard from again on those specific terms. The panel did not engage with what he said. The presenter did not return to what he raised. The broadcast closed without any panellist having responded to the genocide alert, the aerial strikes, the rape figures, or the election-day massacre in Arsi.</p>



<p class="MsoNormal">This is the mechanism Professor Berhanu describes operating in plain sight. It does not require bad faith from any individual participant. Maza Gidei Gebremedhin was not lying when she spoke of Tigrayan vulnerability; she was speaking her genuine concern. Tsedale Lemma was not performing indifference when she analysed the Red Sea question; she was doing the work she knows how to do. The presenter was not malicious in her pivots; she was managing a panel format under time pressure. And yet the aggregate effect of all these individually defensible decisions was the production of a broadcast in which the systematic killing of Orthodox Christians in Arsi named on air by a panellist with direct organisational knowledge disappeared from the conversation within thirty seconds and was never retrieved.</p>



<p class="MsoNormal">This is what institutional erasure looks like when it operates not through censorship but through the ordinary mechanics of editorial selection, panel composition, and the distribution of follow-up questions. It is, in many ways, more difficult to challenge than censorship, because no single decision can be identified as the act of suppression. The suppression is the sum of the decisions; and the sum, in this case, was the burial, on international television, of an active massacre.</p>



<p class="MsoNormal">The TRT programme, in other words, did not merely illustrate the argument of this essay. It enacted it.</p>



<p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p>



<p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p>



<p class="MsoNormal"><em>This essay draws on reporting by DNE Africa, Borkena, the International Christian Concern, the Global Human Rights Defence, the Rift Valley Institute, and the Crown Council of Ethiopia. The TRT World programme &#8216;Ethiopia&#8217;s Abiy Ahmed seeks re-election amid fears of renewed civil war&#8217; (The Newsmakers, June 2026) is cited by transcript. This essay was developed in dialogue with the arguments advanced by Professor Girma Berhanu in his Tribune essay of 3 June 2026, &#8216;The Erasure of Amhara Voices in International Coverage of Ethiopia.&#8217;</em></p>



<p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p>



<p class="MsoNormal">ETHIOPIAN TRIBUNE&nbsp; |&nbsp; ethiopiantribune.com</p>



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		<title>The Erasure of Amhara Voices in International Coverage of Ethiopia</title>
		<link>https://ethiopiantribune.com/2026/06/the-erasure-of-amhara-voices-in-international-coverage-of-ethiopia/</link>
					<comments>https://ethiopiantribune.com/2026/06/the-erasure-of-amhara-voices-in-international-coverage-of-ethiopia/#respond</comments>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Ethiopian Tribune editor]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 03 Jun 2026 21:13:53 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[African News]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[News]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Opinion]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ethionews]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ethiopia]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://ethiopiantribune.com/2026/06/the-erasure-of-amhara-voices-in-international-coverage-of-ethiopia/</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[By Girma Berhanu (Professor) Watching recent international coverage of Ethiopia&#8217;s election, I&#8217;ve been left with...]]></description>
			
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<p class="MsoNormal"><strong>By Girma Berhanu (Professor)</strong></p>



<p class="MsoNormal">Watching recent international coverage of Ethiopia&#8217;s election, I&#8217;ve been left with a question that grows harder to ignore: why are Amhara voices — and Amhara suffering — so consistently absent from the global media narrative?</p>



<p class="MsoNormal">A recent Al Jazeera segment brought this concern into sharp focus. The panel featured Martin Plaut and other commentators, but included no Amhara representative. More troubling than who was present, however, was what went unsaid.</p>



<p class="MsoNormal">There was no substantive discussion of the ongoing conflict in the Amhara region. No mention of civilians killed or displaced. No acknowledgment of the humanitarian toll borne by Amhara communities during the Tigray war — or of the violence that has continued since. The panelists referenced security problems in Oromia and Amhara as background factors affecting the election, but never confronted the specific, devastating reality of war in Amhara itself.</p>



<p class="MsoNormal">This was not an isolated omission.</p>



<p class="MsoNormal">Months earlier, journalist Mehdi Hasan interviewed Getachew Reda. The Ethiopian voices invited to respond, again, included no Amhara representative. Amhara concerns, again, went largely unspoken.</p>



<p class="MsoNormal">Across major international outlets — including the BBC and CNN — a painful pattern has emerged: when Ethiopia is discussed, Amhara perspectives are frequently minimized, generalized, or excluded. Coverage may acknowledge instability, conflict, and political crisis, yet routinely fails to examine how Amhara communities are specifically affected, or to include Amhara voices in conversations about the country&#8217;s future.</p>



<p class="MsoNormal">This pattern deserves serious attention.</p>



<p class="MsoNormal">This is not a call to shield any actor from scrutiny, nor a claim that one community&#8217;s suffering outweighs another&#8217;s. Ethiopia&#8217;s conflicts have brought devastating loss to many communities, and all civilian suffering demands recognition. But equal recognition matters. Representation matters. Accuracy matters.</p>



<p class="MsoNormal">When international media repeatedly discuss Ethiopia without meaningful Amhara participation—or without directly addressing violence against Amhara civilians—it shapes public understanding in ways that carry real consequences. It influences diplomatic conversations, humanitarian priorities, and historical memory.</p>



<p class="MsoNormal">I would like to seize this opportunity to commend the American photojournalist Jemal Countess and the Canadian author and journalist Jeff Pearce, who has long been known as a friend of Ethiopia in the face of foreign misinformation campaigns and the continued marginalization of the Amhara population. These are men of courage, sensitivity, remarkable honesty, and genuine journalistic integrity. They remain committed to truth, professional ethics, and conscience despite facing a barrage of attacks for who they are and for the principles they uphold.</p>



<p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p>



<p class="MsoNormal">The central question is straightforward: who gets to tell Ethiopia&#8217;s story?</p>



<p class="MsoNormal">When one of the country&#8217;s largest communities finds itself spoken about but rarely heard from, concern about media imbalance is not merely reasonable — it is necessary.</p>



<p class="MsoNormal">This is why independent research into international reporting on Ethiopia is urgently needed: to examine whose voices are amplified, whose suffering is documented, and whose experiences remain invisible.</p>



<p class="MsoNormal">Silence can become part of the story. Selective attention can become a form of erasure. And when that occurs in coverage of conflict and political violence, the consequences extend far beyond any headline.</p>



<p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;</p>



<p class="MsoNormal">GIRMA BERHANU<br />Professor</p>



<p class="MsoNormal">GOTHENBURG UNIVERSITY<br />Department of Education and Special Education<br />Västra Hamngatan 25, A-hus room 168<br />Mail address: Box 300,&nbsp;<a href="tel:+4440530" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">405 30</a>&nbsp;Göteborg<br />office:&nbsp;<a href="tel:+46317862325" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">+46-(0)31-786 2325</a><br />mobile:&nbsp;<a href="tel:+46704731818" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">+46 704731818</a><br /><a href="mailto:girma.berhanu@ped.gu.se" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">girma.berhanu@ped.gu.se</a><br /><a href="http://www.ips.gu.se/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">www.ips.gu.se</a></p>



<p class="MsoNormal">&nbsp;   </p>


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		<title>Seven Times Lucky? Ethiopia&#8217;s Seventh General Election and the Art of Democratic Choreography</title>
		<link>https://ethiopiantribune.com/2026/06/seven-times-lucky-ethiopias-seventh-general-election-and-the-art-of-democratic-choreography/</link>
					<comments>https://ethiopiantribune.com/2026/06/seven-times-lucky-ethiopias-seventh-general-election-and-the-art-of-democratic-choreography/#respond</comments>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Ethiopian Tribune editor]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 01 Jun 2026 19:12:09 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[African News]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[News]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Opinion]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ዘገባዎች በአማርኛ]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ethionews]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ethiopia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ethiopian News]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://ethiopiantribune.com/2026/06/seven-times-lucky-ethiopias-seventh-general-election-and-the-art-of-democratic-choreography/</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[The scale of the exercise is not in dispute. Over 52,000 polling stations. Nearly 200,000 election workers. Forty-seven registered political parties. More than 10,900 candidates. These are impressive figures, and NEBE cited them with justifiable pride. Less prominently featured was the analytical context supplied by Chatham House's Ahmed Soliman and Abel Abate Demissie, who assessed the contest as likely to be among the least competitive of the seven national elections held since multiparty democracy was nominally introduced in 1991. The Prosperity Party won 96 per cent of parliamentary seats in 2021. It is running unopposed in several dozen constituencies in 2026. The opposition fragmented across more than forty parties, starved of funds, and in several documented cases denied permits to hold rallies comparable to those the ruling party staged at Meskel Square enters this election not as a credible alternative government in waiting, but as democratic scenery.]]></description>
			
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<p class="s13">On a continent where elections are frequently described as historic milestones before a single ballot is cast, Ethiopia&#8217;s seventh national poll has managed to be simultaneously predictable and remarkable predictably stage-managed, and remarkably revealing about the condition of the state.</p>



<p class="s15"><em>By E. Frashie &nbsp;| &nbsp;Addis Ababa Correspondent</em></p>



<p class="s15">1 June 2026</p>



<p class="s19"><strong><mark style="background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);color:#cf2e2e" class="has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color">ADDIS ABABA</mark></strong>&nbsp;— By half past six on Monday morning, the queues outside polling stations across Addis Ababa had already assumed that particular character of Ethiopian civic patience: long, unhurried, and quietly dignified. For a government anxious about legitimacy, the photographs of citizens lining up before dawn were worth more than any campaign poster. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed understood this perfectly. His first act of the day was not to vote, that came later, but to appear before a carefully curated selection of domestic media outlets for an address that, in its confident sweep and selective omissions, told the electorate precisely what it was and was not supposed to think.</p>



<p class="s19">The speech was, by any measure, a performance. Ethiopia, Abiy declared, had foiled the machinations of &#8216;historical enemies&#8217; who had hired internal proxies to spread propaganda and convince the public that democracy was impossible. The voters, in their wisdom, had rejected this counsel and turned out in their numbers. So far, so standard. But listen more carefully to the subtext and a more pointed message emerges: those who question this election, whether they be opposition politicians, international human rights bodies, or foreign journalists, are enemies or their instruments. The word he chose :- Banda, the Amharic for traitor or colonial lackey, carries particular historical freight in a country whose founding myth is built on resisting foreign interference. It is a word deployed with precision. It is also a word designed to foreclose argument rather than invite it.</p>



<figure class="wp-block-pullquote"><blockquote><p>&#8220;<em>The word Banda carries particular historical freight. It is deployed with precision designed to foreclose argument rather than invite it.</em>&#8220;</p></blockquote></figure>



<p class="s19">Set against the morning&#8217;s operational reality, the rhetorical architecture of the speech becomes still more instructive. While the Prime Minister spoke of the Ethiopian people&#8217;s heroic civic spirit, the National Election Board of Ethiopia was simultaneously informing journalists at the Skylight Hotel, the nerve centre of the day&#8217;s monitoring operations, and, it should be noted, also the base of the African Union observer mission, that no fewer than 143 polling stations in Amhara and Oromia had failed to open at all, on grounds of security. An undisclosed further number had been forced to close early. Voting in Kersa, Kutaber, Gilolopa, and Gosache had been interrupted. How many voters were thereby disenfranchised, NEBE Chairperson Melatwork Hailu did not say. The number remains, as of this writing, undisclosed.</p>



<p class="s19">This is not a trivial omission. Ethiopia is a country of some 135 million people, roughly half of whom are under eighteen. The registered voter roll stands at just over 50 million a figure that critics have already disputed, arguing that large swaths of the country affected by ongoing conflicts in Amhara, Oromia, Gambella, and Tigray were effectively excluded from meaningful participation before the day began. Prior to polling day, NEBE had already announced that elections would not be held in 38 districts of Tigray and eight constituencies in Amhara. The figure of 143 closed stations on the day itself adds a further layer of practical exclusion that the official narrative of orderly, nationwide voting rather conspicuously declines to accommodate.</p>



<p class="s22"><strong><mark style="background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);color:#cf2e2e" class="has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color">THE NUMBERS GAME</mark></strong></p>



<p class="s19">The scale of the exercise is not in dispute. Over 52,000 polling stations. Nearly 200,000 election workers. Forty-seven registered political parties. More than 10,900 candidates. These are impressive figures, and NEBE cited them with justifiable pride. Less prominently featured was the analytical context supplied by Chatham House&#8217;s Ahmed Soliman and Abel Abate Demissie, who assessed the contest as likely to be among the least competitive of the seven national elections held since multiparty democracy was nominally introduced in 1991. The Prosperity Party won 96 per cent of parliamentary seats in 2021. It is running unopposed in several dozen constituencies in 2026. The opposition fragmented across more than forty parties, starved of funds, and in several documented cases denied permits to hold rallies comparable to those the ruling party staged at Meskel Square enters this election not as a credible alternative government in waiting, but as democratic scenery.</p>



<p class="s19">WION&#8217;s correspondents on the ground noted a heavy military presence alongside the familiar picture of enthusiastic queues. That combination visible participation alongside visible security force deployment captures something essential about the texture of this election. Citizens are voting. Whether they are doing so in conditions that meet any recognised standard of free and fair is an altogether different question, and one that the official choreography of the day is not designed to answer.</p>



<figure class="wp-block-pullquote"><blockquote><p>&#8220;<em>The opposition enters this election not as a credible alternative government in waiting, but as democratic scenery.</em>&#8220;</p></blockquote></figure>



<p class="s19">There is also the matter of what was happening to journalism whilst all of this was unfolding. Reporters Without Borders placed Ethiopia 145th out of 180 countries in its 2025 Press Freedom Index company it shares, in that neighbourhood of the rankings, with Eritrea, North Korea, and Iran. Addis Standard, the country&#8217;s most consequential independent digital outlet, had its operating licence withdrawn ahead of the election. The Reporter, the largest-circulation newspaper, had been warned to align its editorial output with government narratives. The irony of an election designed to demonstrate democratic vitality being observed by a press corps operating under these conditions is one that the Prime Minister&#8217;s morning address did not find time to address.</p>



<p class="s22"><strong><mark style="background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);color:#cf2e2e" class="has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color">UHURU&#8217;S CAREFUL ARITHMETIC</mark></strong></p>



<p class="s19">Into this environment arrived former Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta, leading the African Union Election Observation Mission of 73 short-term observers drawn from 37 African countries. The mathematics of oversight are, at minimum, thought-provoking: 73 observers for a country of 135 million people voting across 52,000 polling stations represents a coverage ratio that would tax even the most optimistic statistician. The AUEOM deployed at the formal invitation of the Government of Ethiopia a detail the AU&#8217;s own arrival statement saw fit to mention in its opening sentence, which is a choice.</p>



<p class="s19">Kenyatta, speaking to state media approximately three hours before this dispatch was filed, delivered himself of the following assessment: from the polling stations visited, and from reports received from observers elsewhere in the country, voting &#8216;seems to be going on smoothly.&#8217; Stations had opened &#8216;on time.&#8217; NEBE staff &#8216;seem to know what they&#8217;re doing,&#8217; and &#8216;everything seems orderly.&#8217; He expressed hope that &#8216;the people of Ethiopia will be able to do their civic duty.&#8217;</p>



<p class="s19">That is three uses of the word &#8216;seems&#8217; in under forty seconds, from a man who met NEBE Chairperson Melatwork Hailu the previous day and commands a continent-wide observation network. It is the diplomatic equivalent of a restaurant critic writing that the food &#8216;appeared to be cooked.&#8217; The phrasing is not accidental. Kenyatta is an experienced political operator who knows exactly what his words will be used for by state media, and exactly what weight they can and cannot bear. He has preserved his position for the preliminary statement scheduled for 3 June, when the mission will say something more considered. But the government clip of him saying &#8216;seems orderly&#8217; will be on Ethiopian state television long before that.</p>



<p class="s19">The Intergovernmental Authority on Development has also deployed its own 26-member observer team, led by former Ugandan Vice President Speciosa Wandira-Kazibwe. Their preliminary statement is likewise due on 3 June. Both missions are based, with a symmetry too neat to be entirely coincidental, at the Skylight Hotel the same venue where NEBE staged its official monitoring operations.</p>



<p class="s22"><strong><mark style="background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);color:#cf2e2e" class="has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color">WHAT THE CIVIL SOCIETY OBSERVERS FOUND</mark></strong></p>



<p class="s19">Rather more pointed in its same-day assessment was the Coalition of Ethiopian Civil Society Organisations for Elections, which deployed 3,149 observers 2,258 stationary and 891 mobile across the country. Their midday report, released whilst voting was still under way, documented a catalogue of procedural concerns that the government&#8217;s smooth-running narrative does not easily absorb.</p>



<p class="s19">The most significant finding concerned ballot box handling. At 26 stations monitored by CECOE roughly one per cent of those covered observers were unable to verify that boxes had been demonstrated to be empty before being sealed and opened for voting. This is not a bureaucratic footnote. An unsealed or unverified ballot box is the most elementary mechanism for the pre-stuffing of ballots, and the failure to perform the emptiness demonstration in public is a procedural violation that election law exists precisely to prevent. Beyond this, CECOE documented polling stations established in prohibited locations, unauthorised individuals assisting voters, restrictions on observer access, the distribution of unstamped ballot papers, the exchange of materials between stations, and the presence of individuals inside voting centres who had no business being there. Access was denied to CECOE observers at seventeen stations altogether.</p>



<figure class="wp-block-pullquote"><blockquote><p>&#8220;<em>An unsealed ballot box is not a bureaucratic footnote. It is the most elementary mechanism for pre-stuffing and the failure to demonstrate its emptiness is a violation election law exists to prevent.</em>&#8220;</p></blockquote></figure>



<p class="s19">CECOE was careful to note that the vast majority of stations proceeded without incident, and that overall the day was peaceful. This is accurate and ought to be said. It is also the kind of qualification that the government will amplify and the irregularities will be footnoted. The Tribune notes, for the record, that peace and procedural integrity are related but distinct concepts. A peaceful election conducted with systematic procedural violations is not the same thing as a credible one.</p>



<p class="s22"><strong><mark style="background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);color:#cf2e2e" class="has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color">THE PROCLAMATION AND THE QUEUE</mark></strong></p>



<p class="s19">By evening, a further data point had arrived. NEBE announced, citing Proclamation No. 1162/2019, Article 49, Sub-Article 4, that voting hours would be extended until every voter already standing in line by 6pm had cast their ballot. The legal basis is sound and the decision, on its face, is admirable, no citizen who made the effort to queue should be turned away. But the extension also tells a secondary story about the reliability of the digital voter registration system, which NEBE itself acknowledged had caused delays and longer queues throughout the day. When an e-registration platform deployed across a country of 135 million people generates queues long enough to require a legal extension of polling hours, questions about the system&#8217;s fitness for purpose are not unreasonable.</p>



<p class="s19">The Prime Minister, in his morning address, had spoken of Ethiopia&#8217;s aspiration to become a nation that breeds tech unicorns and meets most of its demands through domestic production. The voter registration app developed by NEBE, reportedly downloaded by over 5.5 million citizens experienced sufficient difficulties on election day to contribute to nationwide delays. The distance between the aspiration and the operational reality is a recurring theme in Abiy&#8217;s Ethiopia, and it surfaced again, quietly, in the queues outside polling stations across the country.</p>



<p class="s22"><strong><mark style="background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);color:#cf2e2e" class="has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color">THE VISION AND THE VOID</mark></strong></p>



<p class="s19">It would be uncharitable and analytically incomplete to dismiss Abiy&#8217;s morning address as mere propaganda. Parts of it were more substantive than that. His call to elected officials to serve with &#8216;clean hands and clean hearts&#8217; rather than focussing on the &#8216;ego of winning&#8217; was, at minimum, an acknowledgement that the gap between electoral victory and effective governance is real. His framing of the next five years as demanding &#8216;more effort, deeper thinking, and greater unity than ever before&#8217; suggested a man who understands, or at least affects to understand, that governing Ethiopia in 2026 is an enterprise of considerable complexity.</p>



<p class="s19">His promise that the Prosperity Party would &#8216;gracefully accept whatever election results emerge&#8217; was received with the scepticism it merits, given that the party is running unopposed in multiple constituencies and won 96 per cent of seats at the last election. Accepting results one has pre-arranged is not, strictly speaking, a test of democratic grace. But the rhetorical commitment is on record, and the Tribune will hold it there.</p>



<p class="s19">The international media picture assembled around this election is less equivocal than the official one. Al Jazeera, Reuters, CNN, Africanews, and WION all reported the contest within a framework of expected Prosperity Party dominance, significant regional exclusions, fragmented opposition, and meaningful questions about process integrity. The FIDH and the World Organisation Against Torture expressed serious concern at the civic environment in which the election was conducted, citing active armed conflict in Amhara and Oromia as backdrop. Human rights observers noted that the government&#8217;s tolerance manifest in pardons issued and exiles welcomed back had been interpreted by some armed groups as weakness, a framing Abiy himself deployed, though he drew different conclusions from it.</p>



<p class="s19">One further detail from the day&#8217;s events deserves to be recorded, and not only in passing. An election facilitator, unnamed in the NEBE briefing, lost his life in a motorcycle accident in Enamorena Enayer, Gurage Zone, whilst carrying out his duties. He will not feature in the preliminary statements due on 3 June, nor in the Prosperity Party&#8217;s victory address when it comes. The Ethiopian Tribune records his name as unknown and his loss as real.</p>



<p class="s19">The AU observer mission will speak on Wednesday. The results, NEBE has indicated, are expected within ten days. Abiy Ahmed will almost certainly be returned to office with a majority that renders the word &#8216;landslide&#8217; barely adequate. The procedural irregularities documented by CECOE will be assessed, weighed, and in all probability found insufficient to alter the outcome. The 143 stations that never opened will remain a footnote. The voters of Kersa and Kutaber and Gilolopa and Gosache will be asked, in due course, to wait for a re-run.</p>



<p class="s19">Ethiopia&#8217;s seventh general election is, by the metrics its government prefers, a success. The stations opened. The queues formed. The ballots were cast. Uhuru Kenyatta said it seemed orderly. On a continent where elections have been far worse, this is not nothing.</p>



<p class="s19">Whether it is enough is a question that the Ethiopian people not the Prosperity Party, not the African Union, not the international wire services will be left to answer for themselves. They have, as Abiy noted with evident satisfaction, been doing so since early morning. The Tribune will be watching when the answers come.</p>



<p class="s9">&nbsp;</p>



<p class="s15"><em>E. Frashie is a correspondent and analytical writer for The Ethiopian Tribune.</em></p>



<p class="s15"><em>The Tribune&#8217;s editorial policy requires attribution of all factual claims. Sources consulted for this dispatch include NEBE official briefings, translated transcripts of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed&#8217;s election-day address and AU observer Uhuru Kenyatta&#8217;s statement to state media, reports by Al Jazeera, Reuters, CNN, Africanews, WION, CECOE midday observer release, FIDH, Chatham House, and Reporters Without Borders.</em></p>


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		<title>The Ritual Before the Storm: Ethiopia’s 2026 Election and the Impossible Choice</title>
		<link>https://ethiopiantribune.com/2026/05/the-ritual-before-the-storm-ethiopias-2026-election-and-the-impossible-choice/</link>
					<comments>https://ethiopiantribune.com/2026/05/the-ritual-before-the-storm-ethiopias-2026-election-and-the-impossible-choice/#respond</comments>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Ethiopian Tribune editor]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 29 May 2026 22:05:05 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[African News]]></category>
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					<description><![CDATA[By The Editorial Team, The Ethiopian Tribune June 1st, 2026 the date every observer of...]]></description>
			
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<p><strong>By The Editorial Team, The Ethiopian Tribune</strong></p>



<p><em>June 1st, 2026 the date every observer of Ethiopian politics has circled on their calendar, approaches with the inevitability of a ceremony whose outcome has already been inscribed. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s ruling Prosperity Party will retain power. The question everyone is asking is not whether this will happen, but whether it matters.</em></p>



<hr class="wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity"/>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">The Election Nobody Really Believes In</h2>



<p>There is a peculiar consensus forming across the analytical landscape of Ethiopia’s 2026 general election, one that cuts across ideological lines and institutional affiliations. From Professor Merera Gudina, the long-time opposition leader and chairman of the Oromo Federalist Congress, to Kjetil Tronvoll, the peace and conflict researcher at Oslo New University College, to Martin Plaut, the political analyst who has tracked Ethiopian politics for decades: the diagnosis is consistent. This election is what one might charitably call a “formal affair” and what one might more accurately describe as electoral theatre masquerading as democracy.</p>



<p>The numbers on the surface look respectable enough. The National Election Board of Ethiopia has registered 47 political parties and received nearly 11,000 candidates. Millions of Ethiopians are entitled to vote. These figures, published and circulated by the regime, are designed to impress international observers and satisfy donors weary of investing in states that cannot at least pretend to democratic procedure. They tell a story of competition, of choice, of civic participation.</p>



<p>But then comes the asterisk. The ruling Prosperity Party holds 457 of 547 parliamentary seats. Political analysts are predicting that when the votes are tallied on June 1st, Abiy will secure a majority of over 90 per cent a landslide that bears the fingerprints not of democratic debate but of structural predetermination. What the election offers, in other words, is not genuine political competition but the theatre of competition: all the ritual without any of the uncertainty.</p>



<p>This distinction matters precisely because the regime needs the election to <em>look</em> like a contest in order for it to function as legitimacy. The ballot box is not an instrument of democratic choice; it is an instrument of democratic <em>presentation</em>. It tells Ethiopians, and more crucially, tells the international community, that the state consults its citizens, that power is subject to their ratification, that the system has not abandoned the forms of democratic governance even if it has abandoned their substance.</p>



<hr class="wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity"/>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">The Three Structural Obstacles: Why This Election Cannot Succeed Even on Its Own Terms</h2>



<p>If one accepts the regime’s implicit framing that the goal is to hold an election that appears credible, inclusive, and national then the enterprise fails before it begins. Three interlocking structural problems ensure this failure.</p>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">1. The Representation Gap: When Democracy Becomes Mathematically Impossible</h3>



<p>The DW reporting on the 2026 election identifies something that should be more prominent in the international commentary: millions of Ethiopians will remain unrepresented. This is not new. The 2021 elections suffered from the same affliction. Several regions face structural issues that leave parliamentary seats vacant, raising concerns, amply justified, that these representation gaps will repeat.</p>



<p>What does this mean in practical terms? It means that the parliament elected on June 1st will not, in fact, represent the entire nation. It will be structurally unrepresentative from the moment the speaker takes the gavel. The chamber itself will contain absences literal empty seats that correspond to regions deemed too unstable, too contested, or too hostile to the regime for elections to occur.</p>



<p>This is not a marginal issue. It is a fundamental delegitimisation of the electoral enterprise. A parliament cannot claim to be the embodiment of national will if entire regions are absent from its deliberations. Yet the regime has calculated that maintaining power in a partially representative chamber is preferable to either allowing genuine competition or expanding the franchise to include populations that might vote differently.</p>



<p>The acceptance of this outcome reveals something important about regime priorities: governing consent matters less than governing <em>control</em>. A fully representative parliament might challenge the executive’s authority. A partially representative one cannot.</p>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">2. The Security Collapse: 46 Districts and the Physical Impossibility of a National Election</h3>



<p>Days before the June 1st vote, the National Election Board made an announcement that should have commanded far more international attention than it did. Elections would not take place in 46 electoral districts across the conflict-affected Amhara and Tigray regions. Eight districts in northwestern Amhara would be suspended due to clashes between militia groups and the army. Thirty-eight districts in Tigray would see no voting due to tensions between the federal government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front.</p>



<p>Let that sink in. Nearly a tenth of the country’s electoral districts will not hold elections. This is not a minor logistical problem; it is an admission that the federal state does not control its own territory. The National Election Board is not merely postponing voting in these areas, it is acknowledging that the state cannot project sufficient authority to conduct even a basic democratic procedure.</p>



<p>This is particularly acute in Tigray, where the war between 2020 and 2022 claimed at least 600,000 lives. A peace agreement was signed in 2022, but the underlying tensions remain volatile. The TPLF, the dominant party in Tigray, was banned as a political party in 2025 following the war. Yet the party’s old guard has reinstituted the regional parliament and elected TPLF leader Debretsion Gebremichael as its speaker—a power play that directly threatens the very peace agreement the regime claims to be administering.</p>



<p>In Amhara, Fano militias are engaged in active conflict with the Ethiopian National Defense Forces. These are not hypothetical threats; they control key cities and roads. The state’s inability to secure these territories means voting simply cannot occur. Some militia groups have issued explicit statements opposing the elections, and analysts assess that they may attempt to disrupt the electoral process in areas where they maintain control.</p>



<p>What emerges from this landscape is stark: Ethiopia does not have a unified national territory within which a genuinely national election can occur. The state is fragmenting in real time, and the June 1st election is occurring within the shell of state authority rather than as an expression of it.</p>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">3. The Political Competition Deficit: Fragmentation by Design</h3>



<p>The third structural obstacle is perhaps the most deliberate. Opposition parties are either highly fragmented or systematically sidelined. Voters have very few real alternatives, and the parties themselves are trapped in what might be called an “electoral authoritarianism bind.”</p>



<p>Consider the situation of the Oromo Federalist Congress, one of the primary opposition parties. As Professor Merera Gudina explained in his recent interview with Addis Standard, the OFC is participating in the 2026 election with a grand total of <em>six candidates</em>. This is not a strategic choice born of optimism about electoral prospects. It is a capitulation to legal constraint: Ethiopian law prevents a party from boycotting two consecutive elections without facing deregistration.</p>



<p>The OFC thus faces an impossible choice: participate nominally (and thereby lend legitimacy to an election designed to exclude them) or boycott (and thereby lose their legal status). They have chosen the former, accepting that participation with six candidates amounts to little more than a fig leaf. They get to say they contested the election; the regime gets to say it welcomed their participation. The outcome is predetermined either way.</p>



<p>The Coalition for the Unity of Ethiopia, an alliance of several opposition parties, has taken a different tack. Rather than accept the participation-or-deregistration binary, they have conditioned their participation on structural changes: an end to the war, the release of political prisoners, greater political freedom, and talks with the genuine opposition. These are, of course, precisely the conditions the regime will not meet. The CEU is thus engaged in conditional participation—appearing to contest the election while knowing their conditions will not be satisfied.</p>



<p>What this fragmentation means is that voters are presented with either the ruling Prosperity Party or a collection of opposition parties that range from nominally present (OFC with six candidates) to conditionally participating (CEU, hedging their bets) to effectively sidelined. There is no genuine alternative power centre, no competing vision of governance that could challenge the ruling party’s monopoly.</p>



<p>This is not accidental. It is the product of deliberate regime strategy. Over the past six years, the Prosperity Party has tightened its control over the electoral space through a combination of legal restrictions (the deregistration threat), security pressure (harassment of opposition figures), and control of state institutions (the National Election Board, which the regime effectively dominates).</p>



<hr class="wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity"/>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">The Regional Fragmentation: Where Guns Trump Ballots</h2>



<p>But electoral obstacles, representation gaps, and political fragmentation tell only part of the story. Beneath and beyond the formal electoral structure lies a deeper reality: Ethiopia is fragmenting along regional and factional lines that the June 1st election cannot address and will likely exacerbate.</p>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Tigray: A Banned Party Governing a Region</h3>



<p>The TPLF situation encapsulates the paradox. The party is banned from running candidates in the national election. Yet it exercises de facto control over the Tigray region, having reinstated its regional parliament and reasserted its authority after the 2022 peace agreement nominally sidelined it.</p>



<p>This is not a stable equilibrium. The federal government refuses to recognise the TPLF’s re-assertion of regional authority, viewing it as a violation of the peace agreement. The TPLF views its restitution as the democratic restoration of its authority—after all, it is the dominant political force in Tigray. The tension between these two positions remains unresolved, and analysts assess that TPLF efforts to regain full control of the region could trigger renewed war with the federal government.</p>



<p>The June 1st election will not resolve this tension. Indeed, it will likely harden it. Voting will not occur in 38 districts in Tigray. The TPLF will be absent from parliament. The federal government will interpret the election as a mandate to marginalise the TPLF further. And in Tigray itself, the population will have been excluded from both the regional and national elections, deepening the sense that the state does not regard them as fully part of the political community.</p>



<p>This is not a local problem. Tigray is a region of over 5 million people. The unresolved relationship between the TPLF and the federal government remains one of the most volatile fault lines in Ethiopian politics.</p>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Amhara: Militia Control and the Erosion of State Authority</h3>



<p>In Amhara, the situation is somewhat different but equally alarming. Fano militias control key cities and roads. They are engaged in active combat with the Ethiopian National Defense Forces. Some have issued explicit statements opposing the elections.</p>



<p>Unlike in Tigray, where the issue is a banned party reasserting control, in Amhara the issue is non-state armed groups operating outside any legal or electoral framework at all. They do not seek parliamentary representation (or have sought it and been excluded). They exist in a state of open conflict with the federal authority.</p>



<p>The eight electoral districts suspended in Amhara are suspended precisely because they are in areas where Fano controls territory. The state cannot project sufficient authority to conduct voting, let alone govern once the votes are cast. This represents not merely a failure of the electoral system but a failure of the state’s monopoly on legitimate force.</p>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Oromia: The OLA Dimension</h3>



<p>Similarly, the Oromo Liberation Army remains active in Oromia, engaged in conflict with the ENDF. While the OLA is not mentioned as prominently in the DW reporting as Fano or the TPLF, their presence underscores the broader picture: across multiple regions, armed groups operate outside the framework of the June 1st election. The ballot box is irrelevant to them because they do not recognise the state’s legitimacy or authority.</p>



<hr class="wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity"/>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">The Economic Subtext: Why the Election Happens Even Though It Cannot Work</h2>



<p>All of this—the structural obstacles, the regional fragmentation, the opposition’s bind—occurs within a context of severe economic crisis. High inflation persists. Currency collapse is ongoing. Youth unemployment is driving mass emigration. The promised dividend of Abiy’s early reforms—economic growth that would bring stability and development—has failed to materialise.</p>



<p>This context is crucial because it explains why the regime insists on holding an election it cannot lose. The election is not designed to solve economic problems or to gather genuine input on policy. It is designed to generate a mandate—a 90 per cent majority that the regime can cite when imposing unpopular economic measures, when requesting continued military expenditure, when fending off donor pressure, when justifying continued restrictions on opposition activity.</p>



<p>The election, in other words, is a response to economic crisis, not a solution to it. It is a way of converting dissatisfaction into legitimacy, of transforming grievance into mandated governance.</p>



<p>Ordinary Ethiopians are acutely aware of this disconnect. A 26-year-old voter cited in the DW reporting captured it succinctly: “Elections are always good,” he said, but “too little attention is being paid to the problems of people struggling with inflation.” The young man expressed deep concern about the exodus of Ethiopians to other countries due to lack of jobs—a hemorrhaging of human capital that no electoral outcome on June 1st will reverse.</p>



<p>The regime’s response to economic crisis is thus not policy reform but democratic theatre. The ballot box becomes a way of managing dissent, of channelling grievance into an orderly process that produces predetermined outcomes.</p>



<hr class="wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity"/>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">The Four Futures: Where Does Ethiopia Go From Here?</h2>



<p>Professor Merera Gudina, in his Addis Standard interview, outlined four possible futures for Ethiopia, each plausible within the current political and security context.</p>



<p>The first is <strong>continued crisis</strong>: shrinking political space, rising cost of living, youth unemployment, and chronic instability. This is perhaps the most likely scenario if nothing changes structurally. The June 1st election would do nothing to address these underlying drivers.</p>



<p>The second is <strong>national and international pressure</strong> the scenario in which the ruling party comes to its senses and sits down for genuine, all-inclusive political dialogue to build national consensus. This requires a fundamental shift in regime strategy, a willingness to share power in something more than the rhetorical sense. It seems unlikely, though not impossible.</p>



<p>The third is <strong>uncoordinated insurgency</strong>: various disjointed armed factions simultaneously push into the capital, creating a chaotic breakdown similar to Syria. The proliferation of armed groups operating outside state control, Fano in Amhara, OLA in Oromia, a potentially re-mobilised TPLF in Tigray, makes this scenario less hypothetical than it might appear.</p>



<p>The fourth is <strong>total disintegration</strong>: if the state tries to maintain unity purely through military force without political compromise, the country risks fracturing completely, as the Soviet Union did. This is the nightmare scenario, but it becomes more plausible as regional authority erodes and the state’s capacity to project power diminishes.</p>



<p>Which scenario is most likely? That depends partly on decisions the regime has not yet made, and partly on the behaviour of actors outside the regime’s control. But the June 1st election does not fundamentally alter the probability of any of these outcomes. If anything, by foreclosing the possibility of negotiated settlement and legitimising a 90 per cent majority for continued exclusion, the election may accelerate the timeline toward one of the less benign scenarios.</p>



<hr class="wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity"/>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">The International Dimension: Legitimacy for Whom?</h2>



<p>It is worth noting that the regime’s insistence on holding the election, despite its manifest inability to meet the basic standards of democratic procedure, reflects partly its need for international legitimacy. The election is being conducted partly <em>for</em> the international audience for donors, for the United Nations, for regional partners.</p>



<p>The United Arab Emirates, Ethiopia’s strongest ally in the Gulf, has been a particularly important source of support. Yet the UAE itself has been accused by UN experts and international observers of covertly supplying weapons, drones, and money to the paramilitary RSF militia in Sudan, which is engaged in a devastating conflict. This creates a troubling dynamic: Ethiopia is seeking legitimacy from an external power that is itself fuelling regional destabilisation.</p>



<p>The broader regional context growing tensions between Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Sudan, all shadowed by proxy dynamics and external intervention means that the June 1st election occurs not in isolation but within a destabilising regional matrix. Abiy’s ability to consolidate power domestically is partly dependent on maintaining external validation, even as external actors pursue their own regional agendas that may not align with Ethiopian stability.</p>



<hr class="wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity"/>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">What Credibility Requires, and Why This Election Cannot Achieve It</h2>



<p>The DW video reporting on the 2026 election posed a straightforward question: can this election be considered credible, inclusive, and truly national?</p>



<p>The answer, based on the evidence, is no. Not because of administrative incompetence or marginal failures, but because the structural conditions for a credible, inclusive, and national election do not exist.</p>



<p>A credible election requires genuine political competition. This election offers only the semblance of competition, with opposition parties either reducing their participation to symbolic gesture (OFC, six candidates) or hedging their bets with conditions they know will not be met (CEU). The 90 per cent majority is predictable precisely because alternatives are foreclosed.</p>



<p>An inclusive election requires that all regions participate and that all populations have representation. This election will exclude 46 districts and leave entire regions with vacant parliamentary seats. Millions of Ethiopians will have no say in who governs them.</p>



<p>A national election requires that the state exercise sufficient authority to conduct voting across its territory. Ethiopia does not currently exercise this authority. Armed groups operating outside the electoral framework control significant territory. The state is fragmenting, not consolidating.</p>



<p>To be balanced: one can understand the regime’s logic in proceeding with the election despite these obstacles. They argue that it is better to hold an election, however imperfect, than to abandon the democratic form entirely. They point to the formal procedures, the registered parties, the electoral board’s independence (which, to be fair, operates with some degree of autonomy even if the regime dominates its appointment). They note that voters are participating, that interest is evident.</p>



<p>But procedural legitimacy is not the same as democratic legitimacy. An election can follow proper procedures while still representing a diminishment of democratic practice. And an election can be formally held while fundamental conditions for democratic choice remain absent.</p>



<hr class="wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity"/>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">After June 1st: The Ritual Ends, the Real Contestation Begins</h2>



<p>Perhaps the most important thing to understand about the June 1st election is that it does not settle anything. It postpones. It ritualises. It generates a mandate that the regime can cite for the next five years. But it does not address the underlying drivers of contestation: regional fragmentation, economic crisis, the presence of armed groups operating outside state control, the unresolved status of the TPLF, the delegitimisation of opposition parties.</p>



<p>When the votes are tallied and Abiy claims his 90 per cent majority, the real contestation will resume. Fano will continue operating in Amhara. The TPLF will continue reasserting authority in Tigray. The OLA will remain active in Oromia. Economic conditions will continue to deteriorate. Young Ethiopians will continue emigrating. The regime will cite the election as a mandate to continue present policies, and opposition voices will grow more marginalised.</p>



<p>The election is not the beginning of a new political cycle. It is the culmination of one cycle and the prelude to another one in which elections matter even less and in which the real contestation occurs in the spaces where the ballot box has no relevance.</p>



<hr class="wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity"/>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Conclusion: The Impossibility of Democratic Ritual in a Fragmenting State</h2>



<p>Ethiopia is attempting something that has become increasingly difficult to sustain: the maintenance of electoral rituals in a state that is fragmenting along regional and factional lines. The June 1st election will proceed. The Prosperity Party will win. Abiy will be re-elected with a supermajority. And none of this will resolve the fundamental challenges facing the state.</p>



<p>The election is not a failure of democracy. It is the operation of electoral authoritarianism: the use of elections not as a mechanism for democratic choice but as a mechanism for democratic <em>presentation</em>. It is credible to international audiences that do not look too closely. It is inclusive of the parties the regime deems acceptable. It is national in symbolic scope, even if practical execution falls far short.</p>



<p>But a state that relies on electoral ritual rather than democratic substance is building on unstable ground. The ballot box cannot generate legitimacy where the underlying conditions for democratic governance do not exist. And in Ethiopia’s case, those conditions. genuine political competition, territorial control by the state, a unified national community willing to accept the outcomes of democratic processes are increasingly absent.</p>



<p>The real question is not whether the 2026 election will change Ethiopia’s trajectory. It will not. The real question is whether the election, by foreclosing legitimate channels of political contestation and legitimising continued exclusion, will accelerate the movement toward one of Professor Merera’s less benign futures. On the evidence available, one cannot rule that out.</p>



<p>The ritual before the storm, in other words, may be hastening the storm’s arrival.</p>



<hr class="wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity"/>



<p><em>The Ethiopian Tribune is an independent publication focused on Horn of Africa geopolitics, democratic accountability, and human rights. This analysis draws on interviews conducted by Addis Standard (Professor Merera Gudina), reporting by Deutsche Welle (Martina Schwikowski), and assessments by international analysts including Kjetil Tronvoll and Martin Plaut.</em></p>


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		<title>The Geography of Delusion: Why Abiy Ahmed&#8217;s Imperial Vision Threatens Ethiopia, Not Saves It</title>
		<link>https://ethiopiantribune.com/2026/05/why-abiy-ahmeds-imperial-vision-threatens-ethiopia-not-saves-it/</link>
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		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Ethiopian Tribune editor]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 29 May 2026 09:30:51 +0000</pubDate>
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					<description><![CDATA[By Sewasew Teklemariam When The Economist warns that a prime minister&#8217;s &#8220;ambitions threaten both his...]]></description>
			
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                	<i class="booster-icon twp-clock"></i> <span>Read Time:</span>9 Minute, 8 Second                </div>

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<p class="s5"><em>By Sewasew Teklemariam </em></p>



<p class="s7">When The Economist warns that a prime minister&#8217;s &#8220;ambitions threaten both his country and the Horn of Africa,&#8221; it is customary to pause. The weekly publication does not deal in exaggeration. Yet what strikes one most acutely is not the warning itself, but the speed with which international analysis has converged on a verdict: Abiy Ahmed&#8217;s imperial gambit is not merely dangerous, it is economically irrational, strategically indefensible, and increasingly divorced from the operational realities of statecraft in a region where power remains deeply constrained by geography, law, and the interests of very capable neighbours.</p>



<p class="s7">The Prime Minister has, for nearly two years now, positioned Red Sea access as an &#8220;existential matter,&#8221; declaring Ethiopia &#8220;a million per cent certain&#8221; it would not remain landlocked. In his February address to Parliament, he spoke of an organic, natural separation between Ethiopia and the Red Sea that must be corrected. The rhetoric has escalated: a senior military official suggested that a population of 130 million simply grants Ethiopia the right to take what it needs from neighbours possessing far smaller populations. War, in the coded language of Addis Ababa, has become diplomatic negotiation.</p>



<p class="s7">But beneath the grandiose framing lies a more elementary problem. Abiy is gambling with the legitimacy of his regime and the future of his country on a strategic premise that does not survive basic economic or geopolitical scrutiny.</p>



<p class="s9"><strong><mark style="background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);color:#cf2e2e" class="has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color">The Economic Absurdity</mark></strong></p>



<p class="s7">Start with the basics. Ethiopia&#8217;s economy is in freefall. The currency has collapsed. The Eurobond market is closed. Foreign exchange reserves are depleted. The government faces mounting pressure to defend the Ethiopian birr, placate an electorate experiencing currency devaluation as a daily assault on purchasing power, and fund security operations across multiple fronts. In such circumstances, a rational leadership pursues diplomatic breakthroughs that deliver measurable economic gains at manageable political cost.</p>



<figure class="wp-block-pullquote"><blockquote><p><em><mark style="background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);color:#cf2e2e" class="has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color">A population of 150 million cannot live in a geographic prison. Therefore, we must spend military resources we do not possess to seize territory from our neighbours.</mark></em></p><cite><em><mark style="background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);color:#0693e3" class="has-inline-color has-vivid-cyan-blue-color">The logic of Abiy Ahmed&#8217;s Red Sea strategy, simplified</mark></em></cite></blockquote></figure>



<p class="s7">Instead, Abiy has chosen the inverse. He has signed a Memorandum of Understanding with Somaliland a breakaway region whose independence violates African Union doctrine and infuriates Somalia, a theoretically important partner. In exchange for diplomatic recognition of Somaliland (fundamentally destabilising to East African state order), Ethiopia would receive a 20-kilometre strip of coastline on a fifty-year lease. This is not a port; it is a liability. The arrangement is so transparently against Somalia&#8217;s interests that it has triggered a profound regional crisis, with Kenya and Djibouti now forced to choose between their relationship with Addis Ababa and their relationship with Mogadishu.</p>



<p class="s7">The Somaliland gambit has collapsed in real time. Somalia, far from capitulating, has moved closer to Kenya, Egypt, and Eritrea precisely the coalition Abiy&#8217;s strategy was ostensibly designed to prevent. And why would it succeed? A breakaway region with no international recognition cannot offer what Ethiopia truly needs: stable, affordable, permanent access to a major port through a framework of law and interstate comity. Yet the Somaliland episode cost Abiy his diplomatic equilibrium in the Horn and poisoned relationships he had spent years cultivating.</p>



<p class="s7">The mathematics of Red Sea access are unforgiving. Djibouti handles roughly 70 per cent of Ethiopia&#8217;s trade. Kenya&#8217;s port of Mombasa could absorb substantially more. Port fees have fallen as competition has intensified. The notion that Ethiopia faces an existential constraint on maritime access, absent war, is not merely overstated—it is false.</p>



<p class="s9"><strong><mark style="background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);color:#cf2e2e" class="has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color">The Strategic Trap</mark></strong></p>



<p class="s7">But the economic irrationality pales beside the strategic one. Abiy appears to believe that the combination of Ethiopia&#8217;s population, military capability, and geographic position grants him the prerogative to forcibly alter borders in the Horn of Africa. This is precisely the doctrine that empowered Putin in Crimea and Netanyahu in Gaza: that the strong may reshape the map at the expense of the weak, provided the international order is sufficiently distracted to avert its gaze.</p>



<p class="s7">The problem is that the Horn of Africa is not a nullity. It is a region of considerable strategic consequence a crossing point between Asia and Africa, a chokehold on global maritime commerce, and a theatre where multiple great powers have invested heavily. When Abiy declared in October 2025 that &#8220;no one would come to Eritrea&#8217;s aid if war breaks out,&#8221; he was making an assumption not a statement of fact. Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and the United States all have profound interests in Red Sea stability. None of them wishes to witness a destabilising war fought over a territorial claim framed in language that evokes historical claims that, if generalised, would blow apart the entire state system of Africa.</p>



<figure class="wp-block-pullquote"><blockquote><p><mark style="background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);color:#cf2e2e" class="has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color">Abiy is increasingly sounding and acting like another world leader whose imperial ambitions and aggression have already caused immense pain and suffering: Russia&#8217;s President Vladimir Putin.</mark></p><cite><mark style="background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);color:#0693e3" class="has-inline-color has-vivid-cyan-blue-color">Tafi Mhaka, Al Jazeera</mark></cite></blockquote></figure>



<p class="s13"></p>



<p class="s7">Eritrea&#8217;s response has been swift and confident. Yemane Gebre Meskel, the Information Minister, dismissed Abiy&#8217;s threats as &#8220;incessant saber-rattling&#8221; from a leader pursuing not peace but &#8220;duplication of verbal gymnastics.&#8221; The language is pointed: Eritrea, having fought a brutal war for independence, is not a territory to be picked at leisure. Its defensive posture is formidable. Its relationships with regional powers particularly Egypt and Saudi Arabia are solid. And crucially, Eritrea can rely on international law in ways that Ethiopia cannot. The 2002 Eritrea–Ethiopia Boundary Commission ruling is binding. Eritrea&#8217;s territorial waters are internationally recognised. The jurisprudence is against Abiy.</p>



<p class="s7">The Prime Minister has begun warning, in closed-door meetings with his Prosperity Party, that Ethiopia might need to take &#8220;severe measures&#8221; against Eritrea if diplomatic means fail. He has referenced Gaza as a potential model for resolving contested territory. This is the language of a leader who has increasingly internalised a doctrine of force not as a last resort, but as a legitimate instrument of state policy. It is a language that alarms every regional actor capable of constraining Ethiopian behaviour.</p>



<p class="s9"><strong><mark style="background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);color:#cf2e2e" class="has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color">The Domestic Contradiction</mark></strong></p>



<p class="s7">There is a further contradiction, perhaps more ominous than the others. Abiy has framed the Red Sea quest as a matter of national unification. In practice, it has become a vehicle for centralisation of power without accountability. The security apparatus has expanded. Ethnic tensions, which the rapprochement with Eritrea initially seemed to ameliorate, have been revived and instrumentalised. The upcoming election is being overseen by a &#8220;task force&#8221; reporting directly to the Prime Minister, not to constitutional authorities. The federal government&#8217;s spending on state subsidies has dropped from 60 per cent of the budget in 2018 to 20 per cent in 2026 a radical reconfiguration of federalism that concentrates resources and authority in Addis Ababa.</p>



<p class="s7">Abiy has cultivated the perception that sea access is the key to Ethiopia&#8217;s prosperity and greatness. In reality, it has become a smokescreen. The people of Ethiopia face currency collapse, fuel shortages, unemployment, and a security environment corrupted by emergency governance. The regime has instrumentalised nationalist sentiment the idea that sea access is Ethiopia&#8217;s &#8220;natural right&#8221; to justify the accumulation of power without the constraints of federalism, competitive elections, or institutional checks.</p>



<p class="s7">A senior analyst of Horn of Africa politics observed recently that &#8220;states facing internal division rarely succeed in aggressive foreign policies; the domestic centre must hold for any peripheral expansion to be credible.&#8221; Ethiopia&#8217;s centre, by contrast, is fragmenting. The Tigray conflict left perhaps 600,000 dead. The Oromo Liberation Front remains in the field. The Benishangul-Gumuz region faces systematic insecurity. Regional governments have been stripped of fiscal autonomy. In such conditions, the prospect of a major war with Eritrea would not vindicate Ethiopian greatness—it would expose profound weakness.</p>



<p class="s9"><strong><mark style="background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);color:#cf2e2e" class="has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color">The Voices from Beyond</mark></strong></p>



<p class="s7">What are the international commentators saying? The verdict has been remarkably consistent. The Economist frames Abiy&#8217;s vision as autocratic centralisation masquerading as national renewal. Al Jazeera has compared his rhetoric and methods to those of other aggressively expansionist leaders. Democracy in Africa has warned that Ethiopia&#8217;s &#8220;imperial ambitions are making the Horn of Africa chronically dangerous.&#8221; The observer research community has flagged a pattern: Abiy voices his commitment to peaceful resolution, whilst military media outlets and senior generals speak the language of inevitable war.</p>



<p class="s7">Egypt&#8217;s response has been characteristically ambiguous. In February 2026, Cairo reportedly offered to mediate Ethiopian access to Red Sea ports in exchange for concessions on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. Within days, Egyptian officials denied the offer entirely. The gesture, even in its denial, conveyed a message: the international community recognises the strategic reality: Ethiopia cannot force its way to the sea, but it can access ports through negotiation. The supposed &#8220;existential&#8221; constraint is a political fiction.</p>



<p class="s7">Regional analysts have been equally damning. Dr Suleiman Walhad observed that &#8220;history has shown repeatedly that states facing internal division rarely succeed in aggressive foreign policies.&#8221; The Red Sea strategy, he argued, is &#8220;stillborn&#8221; destined to fail because Ethiopia lacks the domestic cohesion necessary for a credible imperial project. Ethiopia is not the Ottoman Empire or the Austro-Hungarian imperium. It is a multinational, deeply federalised state with a history of ethnic tensions, weak institutions, and an economy in distress.</p>



<p class="s9"><strong><mark style="background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);color:#cf2e2e" class="has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color">The Reckoning Ahead</mark></strong></p>



<p class="s7">What, then, is driving Abiy&#8217;s increasingly reckless positioning? Part of it is personal: the Prime Minister is seeking to build a legacy. He entered office as a reformer, declared &#8220;Never again&#8221; about ethnic conflict, and received the Nobel Peace Prize a prize that now sits uncomfortably beside a record of internal repression and regional aggression. The Red Sea gambit offers a chance to reframe himself as a great power builder, a leader who restored Ethiopia to its rightful place on the world stage.</p>



<p class="s7">Part of it is structural: the Ethiopian regime depends on cultivating a sense of perpetual nationalist grievance. The idea that Ethiopia is &#8220;imprisoned&#8221; geographically, that it has been cheated of its natural inheritance, that only a strong leader can correct historical injustices this narrative justifies emergency governance and defers accountability for economic failure.</p>



<p class="s7">And part of it is psychological: Abiy appears to have come to believe his own mythology. He has surrounded himself with military officials and party loyalists who tell him what he wishes to hear. Contradiction between his public commitment to peaceful resolution and military preparations for war, between his anti-authoritarian reputation and his centralisation of power, between his claims of economic visionary leadership and the currency collapse happening in real time, no longer registers as a problem to be resolved. It is simply the price of greatness.</p>



<p class="s7">But greatness purchased through the destabilisation of the Horn of Africa, the alienation of neighbouring states, and the further concentration of power at home is not greatness at all. It is a familiar tragedy: a leader of initial promise succumbing to the delusions of power, wagering his country&#8217;s future on a strategic fantasy, and discovering—too late—that geography and law are more durable than rhetoric and will.</p>



<p class="s7">The international community is watching. So, increasingly, are Ethiopians.</p>



<p class="s14">&nbsp;</p>


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		<title>The New Addis: How Vanity Meets Vulnerability</title>
		<link>https://ethiopiantribune.com/2026/05/the-new-addis-how-vanity-meets-vulnerability/</link>
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		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Ethiopian Tribune editor]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 26 May 2026 11:10:13 +0000</pubDate>
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					<description><![CDATA[Abiy Ahmed&#8217;s corridor megaprojects seduce the global influencer class while 43 per cent of Ethiopians...]]></description>
			
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<p class="MsoNormal"><em>Abiy Ahmed&#8217;s corridor megaprojects seduce the global influencer class while 43 per cent of Ethiopians sink below the poverty line—a politics of aesthetic modernisation masquerading as development</em></p>



<p class="MsoNormal"><strong>By E. Frashie </strong></p>



<p class="MsoNormal">On a sweltering May afternoon in Addis Ababa, American streaming sensation Darren Watkins Jr. known to millions as iShowSpeed, walked barefoot through the newly paved Merkato district, livestreaming his gratitude to Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed for the city&#8217;s &#8220;incredible transformation.&#8221; In January, global influencer Dylan Page arrived to similar fanfare, greeting Arsenal supporters and narrating the elegance of renovated riverside promenades to his international audience. Neither mentioned the 3,250 households displaced by a single corridor project. Neither addressed the fact that 43 per cent of Ethiopians now live below the poverty line.</p>



<p class="MsoNormal">The contrast is not incidental. It is the very architecture of the Prosperity Party&#8217;s political strategy what we might call the aesthetics of austerity: the deliberate cultivation of a modernised, globally legible urban facade, deployed to obscure the material deterioration of the nation itself.</p>



<p class="MsoNormal"><strong>The Narrative of Transformation</strong></p>



<p class="MsoNormal">By any measure of infrastructure ambition, Addis Ababa&#8217;s corridor development project is formidable. Since 2019, the city administration has overseen the transformation of 88 kilometres of urban space, constructing walking paths, cycling lanes, playgrounds, museums, and riverside parks. The Economist recently observed that Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed&#8217;s re-election in June 2026 is certain, but noted with considerable ambivalence that Ethiopia&#8217;s future is less so. This tension political inevitability coupled with systemic uncertainty sits at the heart of the urban modernisation project.</p>



<p class="MsoNormal">The government frames these corridors as more than infrastructure. They are, in the official lexicon, symbols of national dignity and pan-African aspiration. In August 2025, the Prime Minister described the completed Addis International Convention Centre–Goro–VIP Airport corridor as evidence of &#8220;a different vision and a renewed work culture&#8221; shaping Ethiopia&#8217;s urban transformation. The rhetoric is intoxicating: pedestrian walkways as democracy, green spaces as equity, modern boulevards as the infrastructure of freedom.</p>



<p class="MsoNormal">But the statistics are stark. A single corridor, the Piassa-Mexico-Sarbet-Gotera-Wollo Sefer stretch, cost the city $325 million to construct, displacing 3,250 households and 14,000 residents. The project required an expenditure of approximately €11.5 million per kilometre for 48 kilometres of street upgrade. For perspective: that same investment could have funded over 1,100 kilometres of federal road projects. Yet only five out of one hundred woredas in Addis Ababa enjoy continuous water supply.</p>



<p class="MsoNormal"><strong>The Influencer Machine</strong></p>



<p class="MsoNormal">The arrival of international influencers represents a calculated element of the regime&#8217;s image management. In May 2026, the government hosted the inaugural African Social Media Influencers Summit in Addis Ababa, attracting 61 digital creators from 30 countries with a combined following of 321 million. An additional 120 Ethiopian content creators brought another 150 million followers into the equation, a total reach exceeding 470 million users.</p>



<p class="MsoNormal">The strategic logic is transparent: deploy the informal authority of the global creator economy to narrate Addis Ababa as Africa&#8217;s premier destination for top-tier international digital creators. In the language of the summit organisers, these influencers would serve as cultural ambassadors, reshaping global narratives about the continent. Data presented at the summit claimed that skewed global narratives cost Africa up to $4.2 billion annually, framing the influencer campaign not merely as tourism promotion but as continental economic necessity.</p>



<p class="MsoNormal">What was remarkable about the summit was what it omitted. The government provided these influencers with 24/7 VIP security during their stays, granted them curated access to gleaming new infrastructure, and ensured their livestreams and social media posts featured polished urban vistas. No creator was invited to the neighbourhoods of Kasanchiz, where residents are still seeking compensation for forced evictions. None were brought to Arat Kilo or Piassa, where the demolition of historic buildings erased cultural heritage for the sake of commercial corridors and glass towers.</p>



<p class="MsoNormal">The regime is, in essence, outsourcing legitimacy. By facilitating content creation from prestigious global creators, the government transforms the city&#8217;s modernised districts into a form of soft power a visual argument that this is what development looks like. The influencers, most of whom lack depth of knowledge about Ethiopia&#8217;s political economy or displacement crises, become unwitting validators of a gentrification project sold as continental pride.</p>



<p class="MsoNormal"><strong>Gentrification for the Global Elite</strong></p>



<p class="MsoNormal">The second audience for Addis Ababa&#8217;s transformation is less visible but far more economically significant: wealthy expatriates, diplomats, and—increasingly, Middle Eastern capital seeking refuge from regional instability.</p>



<p class="MsoNormal">Marketing materials for Addis Ababa&#8217;s luxury real estate market are explicit about this segmentation. Bole, traditionally the expatriate district, now features mid-luxury and high-end developments explicitly marketed to high-net-worth individuals, expatriates, and businesses. Three-bedroom luxury apartments command rents of $1,000 to $3,000 monthly, with prices per square metre reaching 240,000 to 420,000 Ethiopian Birr at a time when the World Bank estimates the monthly minimum for subsistence living at 1,500 to 3,000 Birr.</p>



<p class="MsoNormal">The corridor projects have been instrumental in creating this market. By displacing low-income residents from historically mixed neighbourhoods and replacing them with commercial centres, glass towers, and upscale amenities, the government has effectively engineered demographic change. It is gentrification by state decree—not the organic process of market forces, but deliberate policy. One former urban planning official, speaking on condition of anonymity, described it bluntly: &#8220;You destroy one&#8217;s house in anticipation of better houses for someone else. It&#8217;s portrayed as development, as improvement. You take someone&#8217;s property and give it as an economic opportunity for the other one. What happened to the displaced person? Nothing, a very small amount of money.&#8221;</p>



<p class="MsoNormal">Critics on the ground have deployed a pointed neologism: Gazanchis the wholesale removal of a people in the name of cosmetic progress. The term draws a parallel to Gaza, evoking the forced displacement of a population to make way for elite luxury. In this rendering, Addis Ababa&#8217;s transformation is not merely urban development but spatial and economic ethnic cleansing, effected through planning rather than military force, but with outcomes equally devastating for the displaced.</p>



<p class="MsoNormal"><strong>The Poverty Crisis: The Suppressed Narrative</strong></p>



<p class="MsoNormal">What makes the influencer campaign and the gentrification project particularly troubling is the catastrophic context against which they unfold.</p>



<p class="MsoNormal">Ethiopia&#8217;s poverty rate has surged from 33 per cent in 2016 to 39 per cent in 2021, and is projected to reach 43 per cent by the end of this year—a reversal of two decades of progress. The World Bank attributes this deterioration to internal and external challenges: the Tigray war, persistent droughts, pandemic aftershocks, and the macroeconomic reform shock that followed the government&#8217;s decision to float the Ethiopian Birr in late 2024.</p>



<p class="MsoNormal">The Birr&#8217;s devaluation has been catastrophic for ordinary households. The currency fell by approximately 90 per cent in the weeks following its float, introducing runaway inflation. Food prices have surged far beyond the purchasing power of static wages. Basic commodities coffee, sugar, meat, have become luxury items for much of the urban working class. A recent analysis noted that the cost of living has evolved from a chronic strain into an existential threat. Inflation officially moderated to 9.7 per cent by February 2026, but by April it had returned to double digits at 11.7 per cent. Food inflation climbed to 13.5 per cent—a figure that bears almost no relationship to the lived experience of families making impossible choices between paying rent, buying food, and medicating illness.</p>



<p class="MsoNormal">This economic devastation has been accompanied by an aggressive fiscal consolidation demanded by international creditors. The government has expanded tax bases, tightened enforcement, and reduced tax deductions precisely when ordinary citizens were experiencing income contraction. The effect is perverse: for a population spending the vast majority of disposable income on food, aggressive tax policies function as a form of penalty on survival.</p>



<p class="MsoNormal">Meanwhile, the government allocates hundreds of millions of dollars to corridor projects, $10 billion to a palace complex, and enormous sums to hosting international summits for influencers—events explicitly designed to showcase a city that most Ethiopians cannot afford to live in.</p>



<p class="MsoNormal"><strong>The Government&#8217;s Defence: Order and Progress</strong></p>



<p class="MsoNormal">To be fair, the government&#8217;s position merits articulation. Officials argue that the corridor projects represent necessary modernisation, that they create employment, improve public health through better urban mobility, and position Ethiopia as a continent-leading force in urban transformation. They point to improved road infrastructure, reduced travel times, and the creation of public spaces that strengthen social cohesion. The government contends that the corridor model is being emulated across 75 cities nationwide, suggesting genuine demand for this approach to urban development.</p>



<p class="MsoNormal">Defenders note that private investment in luxury real estate generates tax revenue, creates construction jobs, and enhances the city&#8217;s global standing. They argue that attracting diaspora investment and wealthy expatriates is not merely symbols but substance, it brings foreign currency, technical expertise, and international connections that benefit the broader economy. The international influencer summit, from this perspective, is not vanity but smart branding: in an age of social media, image-shaping is consequential economics.</p>



<p class="MsoNormal">On the matter of displacement, officials acknowledge that relocation has been necessary but argue that affected residents receive compensation and that resettlement housing will ultimately benefit them through improved neighbourhoods. They further contend that growth will create jobs and trickle-down benefits that today&#8217;s gentrification is tomorrow&#8217;s shared prosperity.</p>



<p class="MsoNormal"><strong>Why This Argument Fails</strong></p>



<p class="MsoNormal">These defences contain an element of truth but mistake correlation for causation and confuse elite dynamism with shared development.</p>



<p class="MsoNormal">First, the timing is ruinous. Launching a $325 million corridor project and a billion-dollar palace renovation at the moment when poverty is approaching 43 per cent and food inflation is double-digit is not bold governance; it is tone-deafness elevated to policy.</p>



<p class="MsoNormal">Second, the comparative opportunity cost is devastating. €11.5 million per kilometre of city beautification, whilst five out of every hundred urban neighbourhoods lack basic water supply, is not a resource allocation choice made in good faith toward development. It is a choice that prioritises the visibility of modernity over its substance.</p>



<p class="MsoNormal">Third, the research on gentrification in the Global South is clear: when middle-income and low-income residents are displaced and replaced by wealth that does not derive from within the local economy, the aggregate effect is not job creation but labour-market bifurcation. Newly constructed luxury apartments employ security guards, housekeepers, and service workers at minimal wages. The commercial spaces are franchised to international corporations. The benefits flow upward and outward, not to the displaced.</p>



<p class="MsoNormal">Finally, on the matter of compensation and resettlement: Amnesty International&#8217;s investigation in April 2025 documented that the government has forcibly evicted at least 872 people in Bole and Lemi Kura alone, without prior consultation, compensation, or provision of alternative housing. The government&#8217;s assertion that affected residents will ultimately benefit rings hollow when families are displaced with weeks&#8217; notice, provided minimal compensation, and offered no genuine pathway back into the transformed neighbourhoods.</p>



<p class="MsoNormal"><strong>The Political Utility of Facades</strong></p>



<p class="MsoNormal">The deepest critique of the corridor project is not economic but political. Gleaming infrastructure and international influencer endorsement serve a political function: they allow the regime to claim dynamism, modernity, and visionary leadership at precisely the moment when institutional legitimacy is eroding.</p>



<p class="MsoNormal">As The Economist noted, Abiy Ahmed&#8217;s re-election is certain, yet his re-election lacks democratic substance. Opposition boycotts, the exclusion of the Tigray People&#8217;s Liberation Front, restrictions on campaign space, and the arrest of journalists mean that the June 2026 election will, like 2021, be a landslide victory composed largely of uncontested seats. The regime faces no genuine electoral threat.</p>



<p class="MsoNormal">But political certainty is not the same as legitimacy. It is achieved through institutional engineering, not consent. The corridor projects therefore serve a compensatory function: they provide the appearance of effective governance and national progress at a moment when actual governance has failed to deliver security, justice, or shared prosperity. They tell a story to international investors, to diaspora Ethiopians, and to the regime&#8217;s own supporters that this is what we have built, even if what most Ethiopians experience is deteriorating livelihoods.</p>



<p class="MsoNormal">The influencer campaign is the most naked expression of this strategy. By turning the city into a stage for global digital creators, the regime ensures that the international narrative about Ethiopia is written not by journalists investigating poverty and displacement, but by paid or incentivised cultural entrepreneurs who have neither the knowledge nor the motivation to investigate the regime&#8217;s record. The message sent to the world is simple: Ethiopia is modern, dynamic, and open for business. The message suppressed is more complicated: millions of citizens cannot afford to eat.</p>



<p class="MsoNormal"><strong>Conclusion: Architecture as Deceit</strong></p>



<p class="MsoNormal">There is nothing inherently wrong with urban modernisation. Cities require investment, infrastructure, and vision. But infrastructure investments carry moral weight. They represent choices about whose lives matter, whose security is prioritised, and whose displacement is acceptable.</p>



<p class="MsoNormal">The Addis Ababa corridor project, viewed through the lens of this moral calculus, represents a choice: the choice to invest billions in boulevards, parks, and commercial spaces for a minority of wealthy residents whilst 43 per cent of Ethiopians live in poverty. It is the choice to stage-manage the city for international influencers and diaspora investors whilst displaced residents live in emergency shelters. It is the choice to narrate modernity through architect&#8217;s renderings rather than through the substantive improvements in water, healthcare, education, and security that ordinary Ethiopians require.</p>



<p class="MsoNormal">Abiy Ahmed will be re-elected in June. His government will continue to promote Addis Ababa as Africa&#8217;s premier city. International influencers will continue to livestream from polished corridors, their 470 million followers watching in admiration. Meanwhile, the real story of Ethiopia:-one of deepening poverty, insecurity, and institutional dysfunction will continue to be written in displaced neighbourhoods, households choosing between medicine and food, and young people seeking any route out of the country.</p>



<p class="MsoNormal"><strong><em>The city&#8217;s gleaming new face is not a sign of progress. It is a mask. And it is masks, not substance, that sustain faltering regimes.</em></strong></p>



<p class="MsoNormal"><em>The Ethiopian Tribune | Analysis from the Horn of Africa</em>   </p>


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		<title>National Unity and Red Sea Sovereignty: Legislation as the Price of the Nation</title>
		<link>https://ethiopiantribune.com/2026/05/national-unity-and-red-sea-sovereignty-legislation-as-the-price-of-the-nation/</link>
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		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Ethiopian Tribune editor]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 20 May 2026 10:45:29 +0000</pubDate>
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					<description><![CDATA[By Professor Mefkereseb Goytom Hailu EDITORIAL FOREWORD The fortnight of 11–16 May reshuffled the diplomatic...]]></description>
			
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<p>By Professor Mefkereseb Goytom Hailu</p>



<p><strong><mark style="background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);color:#cf2e2e" class="has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color">EDITORIAL FOREWORD</mark></strong></p>



<p>The fortnight of 11–16 May reshuffled the diplomatic surface of the Ethiopian moment faster than any comparable interval since 2018. An IMF benediction on macroeconomic reform. A presidential visit from Paris bearing investment and geopolitical hedging. The specification by this publication of a reported five-point US-mediated rapprochement framework touching Eritrea, ports, borders, and mutual disengagement. All of it compressed into five days.</p>



<p>The warm lighting of this fortnight creates a risk that the Ethiopian polity executive, parliament, citizenry will mistake tactical diplomatic movement for the resolution of a strategic question. That mistake would be fatal. This essay argues why, and it does so in language that refuses the comforts of ambiguity.</p>



<p>Mefkereseb Goytom Hailu makes a single, uncompromising claim: <em>Ethiopia, as a nation, does not exist without Unity and Red Sea Sovereignty.</em> Not as policy objectives. Not as negotiating positions. As constitutive facts the foundations on which everything else depends. The argument runs deeper: that the four singular interests of Ethiopian strategy (Unity, Red Sea Sovereignty, broad-based democratic economic development, the GERD) are not separate items to be traded against one another, but a single architecture in three layers. Foundations → Means Engine. None is severable without collapsing the whole.</p>



<p>What the next House of People&#8217;s Representatives must do, therefore, is not to manage this architecture through diplomatic channels. It is to legislate it. To write it into the supreme law of the federation in language that no transient diplomatic arrangement, no change in external alignments, no shift in an incumbent&#8217;s calculus can erode. Not through a memorandum of understanding. Not through an executive agreement. Through standing constitutional mandate that anchors the four interests to the Ethiopian state itself, not to the particular leaders who happen to occupy office at any given moment.</p>



<p>The essay that follows sets out both the urgency of that work and the technical constitutional package required to accomplish it. It does so in the language of constitutional law, of federal architecture, of strategic analysis, and of something harder to translate: the register of someone who has spent his analysis on this question and has arrived, in this moment, at clarity about what matters.</p>



<p>This is the seventh and concluding piece in Mefkereseb&#8217;s series on Ethiopian strategy, geopolitics, and constitutional foundations. Readers are invited to engage with the full argument. The work is unfinished. The work is doable. The work cannot be subcontracted. And as the author makes clear the choice to begin it is closing quite rapidly.</p>



<p>The full essay, &#8220;National Unity and Red Sea Sovereignty: Ethiopia Must Pay the Price Now,&#8221; appears at the following address: </p>



<div class="wp-block-file"><a href="https://ethiopiantribune.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/redseamandatelegislated_viaelection.pdf">redSeaMandateLegislated_viaElection.pdf</a><a href="https://ethiopiantribune.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/redseamandatelegislated_viaelection.pdf" class="wp-block-file__button wp-element-button" download>Download</a></div>



<p>The Editors<br />16 May 2026</p>


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