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					<description><![CDATA[On the birthday of the Emperor, the journey worth remembering is not one of his own. It is his mother’s made before sunrise, on muleback, through the forest between Harar and Ejersa Goro.]]></description>
			
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<title>Forty-Three Kilometres — The Ethiopian Tribune</title></p>
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<div style="text-align: center; font-size: 13px; font-weight: 700; letter-spacing: 0.28em; color: #B8860B; margin: 0 0 8px">THE ETHIOPIAN TRIBUNE</div>
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<div style="text-align: center; font-size: 11px; letter-spacing: 0.16em; color: #8a8a8a; margin: 0 0 34px">HISTORY &nbsp;·&nbsp; 23 JULY 2026</div>
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<h1 style="text-align: center; font-family: 'Palatino Linotype','Book Antiqua',Palatino,Georgia,serif; font-size: 44px; line-height: 1.15; font-weight: 700; color: #7A0C0C; margin: 0 0 18px">Forty-Three Kilometres</h1>
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<p style="text-align: center; font-size: 19px; line-height: 1.55; font-style: italic; color: #4a4a4a; margin: 0 auto 22px; max-width: 600px">On the birthday of the Emperor, the journey worth remembering is not one of his own. It is his mother’s — made before sunrise, on muleback, through the forest between Harar and Ejersa Goro.</p>
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<div style="text-align: center; font-size: 12px; letter-spacing: 0.14em; color: #8a8a8a; margin: 0 0 5px">BY <span style="color: #7A0C0C; font-weight: 700; letter-spacing: 0.2em">ENDEX</span></div>
<div style="text-align: center; font-size: 13px; font-style: italic; color: #8a8a8a; margin: 0 0 14px">Chief Editor, The Ethiopian Tribune</div>
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<p style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 1.75; text-align: justify; margin: 0 0 1.1em; overflow: hidden"><span style="float: left; font-size: 76px; line-height: 0.82; font-weight: 700; color: #7A0C0C; padding: 6px 10px 0 0">T</span>he road from Harar to Ejersa Goro is forty-three kilometres. Today it is nothing. In the summer of 1892 it was a night’s hard travelling through dense forest, and a heavily pregnant woman made it on the back of a mule, surrounded by an entourage that had assembled for her from as far away as Wollo.</p>
<p style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 1.75; text-align: justify; margin: 0 0 1.1em">Everything that followed — Geneva, Kingston, Washington, Madrid, Persepolis; the aircraft and the collars and the golden keys of foreign cities — begins on that road. It is worth starting there, because the world remembers the son’s arrivals in other people’s countries and has largely forgotten the one journey that made them possible.</p>
<h2 style="font-size: 14px; font-weight: 700; text-transform: uppercase; letter-spacing: 0.16em; color: #B8860B; margin: 2.4em 0 1em">The counting of the losses</h2>
<p style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 1.75; text-align: justify; margin: 0 0 1.1em">Woizero Yeshimebet Ali Abba Jifar was the daughter of Dejazmach Ali Abba Jifar of Wollo. She had married Ras Makonnen Wolde Mikael, governor of Harar, cousin to Emperor Menelik II and a man who would within four years be among the architects of the victory at Adwa. She had also, by the record that survives, endured eight pregnancies that did not give her a living child.</p>
<p style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 1.75; text-align: justify; margin: 0 0 1.1em">That number is not a footnote. It is the whole meaning of the song the women griots sang when at last a healthy boy was born:</p>
<p>  <!-- the couplet --></p>
<div style="border-top: 2px solid #7A0C0C; border-bottom: 2px solid #7A0C0C; text-align: center; padding: 22px 12px; margin: 2em 0">
<div style="font-family: 'Noto Sans Ethiopic',Nyala,'Abyssinica SIL','Noto Serif Ethiopic',serif; font-size: 24px; line-height: 1.7; color: #7A0C0C">፶ ቢወልዱ ፶ ነው ጉዱ</div>
<div style="font-family: 'Noto Sans Ethiopic',Nyala,'Abyssinica SIL','Noto Serif Ethiopic',serif; font-size: 24px; line-height: 1.7; color: #7A0C0C; margin: 0 0 14px">የሼመቤት ልጅ ይበቃል አንዱ</div>
<div style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 1.6; font-style: italic; color: #4a4a4a">Fifty births, fifty burdens.</div>
<div style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 1.6; font-style: italic; color: #4a4a4a">One son of Yeshembet — enough for the world.</div>
</div>
<p style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 1.75; text-align: justify; margin: 0 0 1.1em">Read against the eight losses, the couplet stops being flattery and becomes arithmetic. The griots were not saying that one child of this woman outweighed fifty children of another. They were saying that this woman had counted to eight in grief, and that the ninth had answered all of it. It is one of the most economical things ever said about her, and it was said by women, in public, on the day.</p>
<p style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 1.75; text-align: justify; margin: 0 0 1.1em">Why Ejersa Goro at all? Because Harar — garrison town, seat of government, thick with the business of a province — was no place to bring a ninth pregnancy after eight sorrows. The choice was for air and quiet and a change of mood. Waiting there was the wife of Fitawrari Nadawe, commander-in-chief of Ras Makonnen’s army, who had offered her compound as a lying-in house and had assembled midwives of her own.</p>
<p style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 1.75; text-align: justify; margin: 0 0 1.1em">And the travelling party was itself an argument. Yeshimebet’s sisters and their friends had come down in numbers from Wollo to attend her. Wise women were selected for the journey, among them, by the memory held in the family, Woizero Desta — mother of Dr Malaku Bayen, who would grow up to become the Emperor’s physician and his envoy to Black America, the man who carried Ethiopia’s cause to Harlem when Italy invaded. The best-known midwives available were brought. At five in the morning, before light, Ras Makonnen’s soldiers went ahead to open the road — men who within four years would be counted heroes of Adwa, Amba Alagi and Mekele, and who on this night were escorting a woman to her confinement.</p>
<p style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 1.75; text-align: justify; margin: 0 0 1.1em">She rode in the middle of all of it. They went left of her, right of her, and behind her, through the trees, in the dark.</p>
<h2 style="font-size: 14px; font-weight: 700; text-transform: uppercase; letter-spacing: 0.16em; color: #B8860B; margin: 2.4em 0 1em">Kidane Mehret</h2>
<p style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 1.75; text-align: justify; margin: 0 0 1.1em">The child was born on Hamle 16, 1884 in the Ethiopian calendar — Saturday, 23 July 1892. It was the day of Kidane Mehret, the Covenant of Mercy, and the coincidence was not treated as one. As emperors and empresses took patron saints, so this boy took Our Lady of the Covenant of Mercy, and kept her: the church he would later raise inside his own palace in Addis Ababa carried her name.</p>
<p style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 1.75; text-align: justify; margin: 0 0 1.1em">They buried the umbilical cord, as is done, and over the place where it was buried they built a church, and the church is St Kidane Mehret at Ejersa Goro. There is something exact in that. The cord is the first thing severed and the first thing returned to the ground; to build over it is to say that a person begins at a particular point on the earth and that the point can be marked. Whatever else the man became — Ras Tafari, Regent, Negusä Nägäst, Elect of God, Conquering Lion of the Tribe of Judah, and to millions across the Atlantic something more than any of those — he began in a compound at Ejersa Goro, on a Saturday, at a place now under a church floor.</p>
<p style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 1.75; text-align: justify; margin: 0 0 1.1em">Two years later, or thereabouts, Yeshimebet was dead. She had made her journey, borne her ninth child, and did not live to watch him grow. Her mother and her sister Woizero Mammit raised him. The Wollo women who had come down the forest road to help her deliver stayed to bring up her son.</p>
<h2 style="font-size: 14px; font-weight: 700; text-transform: uppercase; letter-spacing: 0.16em; color: #B8860B; margin: 2.4em 0 1em">The arrivals</h2>
<p style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 1.75; text-align: justify; margin: 0 0 1.1em">What that boy then did with the world was, in the most literal sense, to travel it.</p>
<p style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 1.75; text-align: justify; margin: 0 0 1.1em">In June 1936 he arrived in Geneva, at the League of Nations, a sovereign whose country had been overrun with aircraft and mustard gas, and told an assembly that would not lift a finger that the fate of a small nation that day would be the fate of the great nations tomorrow. He was correct within three years. The speech did not save Ethiopia. It made him, for a generation of anti-fascists on every continent, something close to a living conscience — and it put the phrase <em>collective security</em> into the mouth of a man whom Europe had assumed would be its object rather than its author.</p>
<p style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 1.75; text-align: justify; margin: 0 0 1.1em">From Geneva he went into exile, and the country that took him in was the one that had failed him. He reached London in June 1936, and the British government found his presence in the capital politically embarrassing — appeasement was in the air, and a dispossessed African emperor in Knightsbridge was an inconvenient reminder of what the democracies had declined to do. So he went west, to Bath, drawn there for rest and, it has been suggested, for treatment of the mustard gas burns on his hands. Consider that. The sovereign who had stood at Geneva and told Europe what chemical weapons do to a people was carrying the evidence on his own skin.</p>
<p style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 1.75; text-align: justify; margin: 0 0 1.1em">In September 1936 he bought Fairfield House, an Italianate villa on Kelston Road, for three and a half thousand pounds, and moved his family in that October — an Ethiopian court in exile in a Roman city, keeping the fight for Ethiopian independence alive from a suburb of Somerset, with Sylvia Pankhurst among his allies and a grey horse called Poppy in the grounds. He lived there until Ethiopia was liberated and he went home in 1941.</p>
<p style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 1.75; text-align: justify; margin: 0 0 1.1em">In May 1954 he arrived in Washington and addressed a joint session of the United States Congress, then crossed the country — Princeton, Boston, Chicago, Seattle, Los Angeles, New Orleans — in a progress no African head of state had made before. He returned in 1963, and again in 1967, and again in 1969, and to the United Nations at twenty-five in 1970, and a last time in 1973.</p>
<p style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 1.75; text-align: justify; margin: 0 0 1.1em">On 21 April 1966 he arrived in Kingston, and something occurred for which protocol had no provision. The crowd that met the aircraft was not a crowd of officials. He gave the movement’s elders gold medallions bearing the Ethiopian seal, the only such gift of the visit; Rita Marley saw him pass in the motorcade and her life changed course. Ethiopians may make of Rastafari what they will — the Emperor himself was an Orthodox Christian to the end and never claimed what was claimed of him — but the fact stands that a man born at Ejersa Goro became, in the Caribbean, the visible sign that Africa had never been conquered. Jamaica keeps the day. They call it Grounation.</p>
<p style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 1.75; text-align: justify; margin: 0 0 1.1em">And in 1971, at seventy-nine, he made two journeys that between them say everything about what the throne had become. In May he arrived in Madrid, where General Franco met him at Barajas with full military honours, the mayor gave him the golden keys of the city, and the two of them exchanged their countries’ highest collars — the anti-fascist icon of 1936 decorated by the last surviving victor of Europe’s fascist wars, a thing neither man mentioned. In October he arrived at Persepolis for the Shah’s celebration of twenty-five centuries of Persian monarchy, and there, by protocol, he was the guest of honour: the senior sovereign in a tent city full of kings. Two of the oldest continuous monarchies on earth stood together in the desert. Neither survived the decade.</p>
<h2 style="font-size: 14px; font-weight: 700; text-transform: uppercase; letter-spacing: 0.16em; color: #B8860B; margin: 2.4em 0 1em">The Garter</h2>
<p style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 1.75; text-align: justify; margin: 0 0 1.1em">But there is one more journey, and it is the one that closes the circle with Britain.</p>
<p style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 1.75; text-align: justify; margin: 0 0 1.1em">In October 1954 he came back — not as a refugee this time but as a head of state, the second guest of Elizabeth II’s new reign. He sailed from Malta to Portsmouth aboard HMS Gambia with his son the Duke of Harar, was received at Victoria Station by the Queen, the Duke of Edinburgh, the Queen Mother and Princess Margaret, and was carried by carriage procession to Buckingham Palace, where he stayed. And there the Queen conferred on him the Most Noble Order of the Garter.</p>
<p style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 1.75; text-align: justify; margin: 0 0 1.1em">It is worth being exact about what that is, because it is easily said and rarely understood. The Garter is the senior order of chivalry in the British system, founded in the fourteenth century, in the personal gift of the sovereign alone, its foreign members admitted under the statutes’ quaint title of Stranger Knights. There is nothing higher for Britain to give. He was later installed at St George’s Chapel, Windsor. He gave in return the chain of the Order of the Seal of Solomon to the Queen and the Order of the Queen of Sheba to the Duke of Edinburgh, and the Duke of Harar was made a knight grand cross of the Royal Victorian Order.</p>
<p>  <!-- pull quote --></p>
<div style="border-top: 2px solid #7A0C0C; border-bottom: 2px solid #7A0C0C; text-align: center; padding: 24px 18px; margin: 2.2em 0; font-size: 22px; line-height: 1.55; font-style: italic; color: #7A0C0C">Eighteen years earlier the same government had thought him an embarrassment and encouraged him out of London. That is the whole distance the Garter measures.</div>
<p style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 1.75; text-align: justify; margin: 0 0 1.1em">Then, on 18 October, he went back to Bath. The city gave him the Freedom — the highest honour in its power — and paraded him through streets where people had known him as a neighbour; and he slept again at Fairfield House, refurbished for the occasion, with local people gathered at the gates to cheer a man they had last seen as an exile. Four years later, in 1958, he gave the house away. He handed the freehold to the Corporation of Bath in gratitude for the welcome the city had shown him, on condition that it serve as a home for old people. It did precisely that for thirty-five years, and the house stands today as a museum to him and a gathering place for Bath’s elderly African-Caribbean community. Of all the monuments raised to Haile Selassie anywhere in the world, that one — a shelter for the aged, given in thanks — may be the one that would have pleased Ejersa Goro most.</p>
<p style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 1.75; text-align: justify; margin: 0 0 1.1em">He returned to Britain for the last time in 1972, and he went to Windsor, to St George’s Chapel, for a ceremony of the Order of the Garter. He had been a refugee in that country and a knight of its highest order, and at the end he went back to the chapel where they had installed him. It was among the last foreign journeys of his reign.</p>
<p style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 1.75; text-align: justify; margin: 0 0 1.1em">Two years later the throne was gone. He was deposed in 1974 amid revolution and the exposure of famine, held in his own palace, and died there in August 1975. The Tribune does not print hagiography, and the argument over what the last years of that reign cost Ethiopians is a real argument that Ethiopians are still having. But the argument belongs to other days. This one belongs to the birth.</p>
<h2 style="font-size: 14px; font-weight: 700; text-transform: uppercase; letter-spacing: 0.16em; color: #B8860B; margin: 2.4em 0 1em">The return</h2>
<p style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 1.75; text-align: justify; margin: 0 0 1.1em">Fifteen years ago a company gathered at Ejersa Goro, at the church of St Kidane Mehret built over the buried cord, to keep the birthday where it happened: Crown Prince Zera Yacob; Abuna Yared; the late Ato Abera Moltot of the Emperor Haile Selassie Memorial Foundation; Leke Khant Abate of the Ethiopian Patriots’ Association; and Rastafarians who had come, as Rastafarians do, a very long way.</p>
<p style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 1.75; text-align: justify; margin: 0 0 1.1em">They had all, in their fashion, travelled the forty-three kilometres.</p>
<p style="font-size: 18px; line-height: 1.75; text-align: justify; margin: 0 0 1.1em">Because that is the shape of it. The mother made one journey and it was short and it nearly killed her and she died soon after. The son made a hundred journeys and was received by presidents, emperors, dictators and congresses on four continents, was given the keys of foreign cities and the freedom of an English one, and was made a knight of the oldest order of chivalry in Europe by a queen whose government had once wished him quietly out of London — and every one of those receptions was in some sense a receipt issued against her forty-three kilometres. Modern Ethiopia, African unity, the idea that international morality might be something a small nation could demand rather than merely hope for, the craft of diplomacy as Africa’s instrument and not only Europe’s — all of it can be argued back, along the road, through the forest, to a woman on a mule who had already buried eight hopes and was riding through the dark with the ninth.</p>
<p style="text-align: center; font-size: 19px; line-height: 1.6; font-style: italic; color: #7A0C0C; margin: 2em 0 0.6em">Happy birthday, Your Majesty. And may the memory of Woizero Yeshimebet Ali be a blessing.</p>
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		<title>Unparalleled Outstanding Leadership: The Case of Atse Menelik II, Emperor of Ethiopia</title>
		<link>https://ethiopiantribune.com/2026/07/unparalleled-outstanding-leadership-the-case-of-atse-menelik-ii-emperor-of-ethiopia/</link>
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		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Ethiopian Tribune editor]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 21 Jul 2026 02:30:09 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[News]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Opinion]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Sustainability]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[#EthiopianTribune]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ethiopia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ethiopian Tribune]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[professor Girma Berhanu]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ኢትዮጵያ]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ኢትዮጵያን ትሪቢውን]]></category>
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					<description><![CDATA[20 July 2026 Editor’s Note Weighing the Emperor A foreword and synopsis to Professor Girma...]]></description>
			
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            </div><p><!-- The Ethiopian Tribune — Editor's Note: Weighing the Emperor (Foreword & Synopsis) --><br />
<!-- Paste directly into the WordPress block editor as a Custom HTML block. --></p>
<div style="max-width: 720px; margin: 0 auto; font-family: 'Palatino Linotype','Book Antiqua',Palatino,Georgia,serif; color: #1A1A1A; line-height: 1.6">
<p style="margin: 0 0 6px 0; font-size: 12px; font-weight: bold; letter-spacing: 2px; text-transform: uppercase; color: #B8860B"><strong>20 July 2026</strong></p>
<p style="margin: 0 0 4px 0; font-size: 12px; font-weight: bold; letter-spacing: 2px; text-transform: uppercase; color: #7A0C0C"><strong>Editor’s Note</strong></p>
<h1 style="margin: 0 0 10px 0; font-size: 34px; line-height: 1.15; font-weight: bold; color: #7A0C0C">Weighing the Emperor</h1>
<p style="margin: 0 0 22px 0; padding-bottom: 16px; border-bottom: 2px solid #B8860B; font-size: 19px; font-style: italic; color: #1A1A1A"><em>A foreword and synopsis to Professor Girma Berhanu’s defence not of Menelik II, but of the standard by which any nineteenth-century ruler should be judged.</em></p>
<h2 style="margin: 28px 0 14px 0; font-size: 15px; font-weight: bold; letter-spacing: 2px; text-transform: uppercase; color: #B8860B">Editorial Foreword</h2>
<p style="margin: 0 0 16px 0; text-align: justify; font-size: 17px"><span style="float: left; font-size: 58px; line-height: 46px; font-weight: bold; padding: 4px 8px 0 0">F</span>ew names in Ethiopian public life can empty a room or fill it with argument as quickly as that of Menelik II. He is summoned as founder and as conqueror, as the architect of a modern state and as the author of its deepest wounds — frequently in the same breath, and frequently by people who are certain about a record they have never read. It is into this charged terrain that Professor Girma Berhanu steps, not to end the quarrel but to insist that it be conducted honestly.</p>
<p style="margin: 0 0 16px 0; text-align: justify; font-size: 17px">The essay that follows is, at heart, an argument about standards. Its central move is deceptively simple: before we ask whether Menelik was a good ruler, we must first agree on the measure — and then apply that same measure to his contemporaries. Judged by the yardsticks of twenty-first-century democracy, or through the lens of present-day ethnonational narrative alone, any nineteenth-century sovereign will be found wanting. Judged against the men who actually shared his age — Bismarck, Alexander III, the reformers of Meiji Japan, the Ottomans in retreat — a different figure emerges: a statesman who preserved his country’s sovereignty in the one decade when nearly every other African kingdom lost theirs.</p>
<blockquote style="margin: 26px 0; padding: 16px 24px; border-top: 2px solid #7A0C0C; border-bottom: 2px solid #7A0C0C; text-align: center; font-size: 20px; font-style: italic; color: #7A0C0C"><p><em>The Tribune publishes this piece not as a verdict but as a discipline.</em></p>
</blockquote>
<p style="margin: 0 0 16px 0; text-align: justify; font-size: 17px">Professor Girma does not ask readers to look away from the conquest of the south and west, the redistributed land, the imperial administration that displaced local authority, or the grievances that outlived the man. He asks, instead, that these be weighed rather than wielded — set beside the achievements rather than used to erase them, and beside the conduct of other expanding states rather than examined in isolation. Where he is most provocative, he turns the question back on the present: why is one expansion remembered as nation-building and another condemned, and who profits from keeping the memory raw?</p>
<p style="margin: 0 0 16px 0; text-align: justify; font-size: 17px">Readers will disagree with him. Some will feel he grants the emperor too much grace; others will feel the essay concedes too readily what should be defended. Both responses are welcome, because both accept the terms the author is really arguing for — that our past be studied critically, honestly, and in context, and that history be neither romanticised nor weaponised. On that, if on nothing else, this publication stands with him.</p>
<h2 style="margin: 28px 0 14px 0; font-size: 15px; font-weight: bold; letter-spacing: 2px; text-transform: uppercase; color: #B8860B">Synopsis</h2>
<p style="margin: 0 0 16px 0; text-align: justify; font-size: 17px">Responding to readers who felt his earlier essay had praised Menelik II too warmly, Professor Girma Berhanu returns not to defend the emperor uncritically but to defend a method. The right question, he argues, is not whether Menelik was hero or monster, but by what standard we judge him — and whether we would apply that same standard to the rulers who shared his era.</p>
<p style="margin: 0 0 16px 0; text-align: justify; font-size: 17px">Set against the age of Bismarck, Meiji Japan, Tsarist Russia and the Scramble for Africa, Menelik emerges as a consequential statesman: the sovereign who defeated Italy at Adwa, modernised the army, introduced railways, telegraph, banking and ministries, and kept Ethiopia independent when only Liberia did the same across an entire continent. Yet the essay refuses to look past the cost — the conquest of southern and western regions, the unequal incorporation of peoples, the legacies of grievance that shape Ethiopia still.</p>
<p style="margin: 0 0 16px 0; text-align: justify; font-size: 17px">Its most searching turn is toward the present: why some expansions are remembered as nation-building and others as unhealed wounds, and why Ethiopia remains unable to agree on the meaning of its own history. The answer, Professor Girma suggests, lies less with Menelik than with us.</p>
<p style="margin: 26px 0 0 0; padding-top: 18px; border-top: 2px solid #B8860B; text-align: center; font-size: 17px; font-style: italic; color: #1A1A1A"><em>Read the full article — <a href="https://ethiopiantribune.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/unparalleled-outstanding-leadership.docx">unparalleled-outstanding-leadership.docx</a></em></p>
<p style="margin: 26px 0 0 0; padding-top: 18px; border-top: 2px solid #B8860B; text-align: center; font-size: 17px; font-style: italic; color: #1A1A1A"><em> by Professor Girma Berhanu.</em></p>
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		<title>Collective Stupidity</title>
		<link>https://ethiopiantribune.com/2026/07/collective-stupidity/</link>
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		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Ethiopian Tribune editor]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 18 Jul 2026 02:07:16 +0000</pubDate>
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					<description><![CDATA[The Ethiopian Tribune Editor’s Foreword &#38; Synopsis Collective Stupidity An Intellectual Infection Consuming Ethiopia’s Educated...]]></description>
			
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            </div><p><!-- ============================================================ THE ETHIOPIAN TRIBUNE — EDITOR'S FOREWORD & SYNOPSIS "Collective Stupidity" — Girma Berhanu (Professor) Paste into a WordPress Custom HTML block. All styles inline. REPLACE the two instances of FULL_ESSAY_URL below. ============================================================ --></p>
<div style="font-family: 'Palatino Linotype','Book Antiqua',Palatino,Georgia,serif; color: #1A1A1A; max-width: 720px; margin: 0 auto; line-height: 1.7; font-size: 18px">
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<p style="text-align: center; margin: 0 0 6px 0; font-size: 13px; font-weight: bold; letter-spacing: 2.5px; text-transform: uppercase; color: #B8860B"><strong>The Ethiopian Tribune</strong></p>
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<p style="text-align: center; margin: 0 0 26px 0; font-size: 12px; letter-spacing: 2px; text-transform: uppercase; color: #B8860B">Editor’s Foreword &amp; Synopsis</p>
<p><!-- TITLE BLOCK --></p>
<h1 style="text-align: center; font-family: 'Palatino Linotype','Book Antiqua',Palatino,Georgia,serif; font-size: 40px; line-height: 1.2; font-weight: bold; color: #7A0C0C; margin: 0 0 10px 0">Collective Stupidity</h1>
<p style="text-align: center; font-size: 20px; font-style: italic; color: #1A1A1A; margin: 0 0 16px 0"><em>An Intellectual Infection Consuming Ethiopia’s Educated Class</em></p>
<p style="text-align: center; font-size: 13px; letter-spacing: 1.5px; text-transform: uppercase; color: #B8860B; margin: 0 0 6px 0">Girma Berhanu (Professor) · University of Gothenburg</p>
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<p><!-- ===================== FOREWORD ===================== --></p>
<p style="font-size: 13px; font-weight: bold; letter-spacing: 2px; text-transform: uppercase; color: #B8860B; margin: 0 0 14px 0"><strong>Editor’s Foreword</strong></p>
<p style="margin: 0 0 16px 0; text-align: justify"><span style="float: left; font-size: 64px; line-height: 0.82; font-weight: bold; padding: 4px 8px 0 0">A</span> Frenchman in Ayat once asked his masons to seal a doorway. They did the work beautifully — plumb, level, the mortar clean — and only when the last brick went in did anyone notice they had walled themselves inside. The craftsmanship was flawless. The judgement was not.</p>
<p style="margin: 0 0 16px 0; text-align: justify">Professor Girma Berhanu offers this story midway through the essay that follows, and it is the hinge on which his whole argument turns. Ethiopia does not suffer from a shortage of skilled hands. It suffers from a shortage of the question that ought to precede the work: <em>when this wall is finished, who will still be inside?</em></p>
<p style="margin: 0 0 16px 0; text-align: justify">We publish this essay knowing precisely who will read it. The Tribune’s readership is the educated class — the graduates, the ministry advisers, the diaspora professionals, the academics, the commentators. Professor Girma is not writing about a distant elite. He is writing about us, and about himself; he says so, and the admission is what earns him the right to say the rest. An essay that accused only its enemies would be another entry in the long Ethiopian tradition of finger-pointing that he identifies as part of the disease. This one implicates its own author, and it will implicate most of those who finish it.</p>
<p style="margin: 0 0 16px 0; text-align: justify">The charge is serious. For sixty years, he argues, Ethiopia’s intelligentsia have been present at every catastrophe — as architects, as legitimisers, or as the silent men in the room who understood exactly what was being decided and said nothing. From the student movement of the 1960s to the Derg, from the EPRDF to the present arrangement, credentials have stood in for rigour, conformity for judgement, and opportunism for principle. His roll-call of exceptions — Gebrehiwot Baykedagn, Girmame Neway, Berhanu Dinke, Getachew Maru, Berhanu Meskel Reda, Mesfin Woldemariam — is brief enough to be devastating.</p>
<p><!-- PULL QUOTE --></p>
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<p style="margin: 0; font-size: 24px; line-height: 1.45; font-style: italic; color: #7A0C0C"><em>Six names across six decades is not a tradition. It is an indictment of everyone omitted.</em></p>
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<p style="margin: 0 0 16px 0; text-align: justify">Some readers will resist his account of the Orthodox tradition of learning, and they should test it. But the point he draws from it is harder to dismiss than its theological setting suggests: an education that measured authority by wisdom and humility rather than by certification produced a different kind of person from one that measures it by employability. He does not ask Ethiopia to choose tradition over modernity. He asks why it chose replacement over integration — and notes, from Bhutan, that the choice was never forced.</p>
<p style="margin: 0 0 16px 0; text-align: justify">Readers who look for a policy prescription will not find one, and that is deliberate. The essay’s demand is prior to policy. No reform survives contact with a class that has lost the habit of asking whether it might be wrong. Intellectual humility is not the ornament of good governance; it is the precondition.</p>
<p style="margin: 0 0 16px 0; text-align: justify">The Tribune’s editorial position has never been that Ethiopia is failed only by its rulers. It is that a country gets the silence it tolerates. Professor Girma has broken his. The reasonable response is not agreement. It is the honest self-inventory he asks for — beginning with those of us who publish.</p>
<p style="text-align: right; margin: 24px 0 12px 0; font-style: italic; font-weight: bold; color: #7A0C0C"><strong><em>— The Editor, The Ethiopian Tribune</em></strong></p>
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<p><!-- ===================== SYNOPSIS ===================== --></p>
<p style="font-size: 13px; font-weight: bold; letter-spacing: 2px; text-transform: uppercase; color: #B8860B; margin: 0 0 14px 0"><strong>Synopsis</strong></p>
<p style="margin: 0 0 16px 0; text-align: justify">Ethiopia’s crisis, Professor Girma Berhanu argues, is not merely political but intellectual — and its authors hold degrees.</p>
<p style="margin: 0 0 16px 0; text-align: justify">Drawing on psychology, educational theory and six decades of Ethiopian political history, this essay diagnoses a collapse of <em>collective intelligence</em> within the country’s educated class: the condition in which capable individuals, acting together, repeatedly produce decisions that damage the common good. Credentials have displaced rigour, conformity has displaced independent judgement, and ambition has displaced responsibility.</p>
<p style="margin: 0 0 16px 0; text-align: justify">The argument moves across several registers. It traces the paradox of an intelligentsia that has legitimised successive authoritarian projects since the 1960s, reading that record through Paul Hollander’s account of intellectual resentment and Noam Chomsky’s insistence that privileged access to knowledge carries a moral obligation. It contrasts a modern educational system built to certify technical competence with the Orthodox tradition of holistic formation, in which authority was measured by wisdom and humility rather than by paper — and asks why Ethiopia’s reformers chose replacement over synthesis. It examines language policy and the contested memory of Adwa as instances of the same error: the dismantling of what already works to prove a political point. And, through the Dunning–Kruger effect and Tomas Chamorro-Premuzic’s work on confident incompetence, it turns the analysis on the diaspora and on the author himself.</p>
<p style="margin: 0 0 16px 0; text-align: justify">Ethiopia’s talent, Professor Girma concludes, is not scarce; the institutions that would let it compound are. Reversing collective stupidity is therefore not an educational problem but a national imperative — the precondition for any reform worth attempting.</p>
<p><!-- ===================== CALL TO THE FULL ESSAY ===================== --></p>
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<p style="margin: 0 0 12px 0"><strong><a href="https://ethiopiantribune.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/collective-stupidity-an-intellectual-infection-consuming-ethiopia-seducated-class-1.docx" style="display: inline-block; font-family: 'Palatino Linotype','Book Antiqua',Palatino,Georgia,serif; font-size: 16px; font-weight: bold; letter-spacing: 1.5px; text-transform: uppercase; color: #FFFFFF; background-color: #7A0C0C; padding: 13px 30px; text-decoration: none; border-radius: 2px">Read the full essay →</a><a href="https://ethiopiantribune.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/collective-stupidity-an-intellectual-infection-consuming-ethiopia-seducated-class-1.docx">collective-stupidity-an-intellectual-infection-consuming-ethiopia-seducated-class-1.docx</a></strong></p>
<p style="margin: 0; font-size: 14px; font-style: italic; color: #1A1A1A"><em>“Collective Stupidity: An Intellectual Infection Consuming Ethiopia’s Educated Class” appears in full on The Ethiopian Tribune.</em></p>
</div>
<p><!-- AUTHOR NOTE --></p>
<p style="font-size: 15px; line-height: 1.6; color: #1A1A1A; margin: 0 0 8px 0"><strong>Girma Berhanu</strong> is Professor of Education at the University of Gothenburg and a regular contributor to <em>The Ethiopian Tribune</em>. He writes on intelligence, education and the moral responsibilities of the intellectual class.</p>
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		<title>South Africa&#8217;s Anti-Immigrant Violence: Africans Targeting Africans</title>
		<link>https://ethiopiantribune.com/2026/07/south-africas-anti-immigrant-violence-africans-targeting-africans/</link>
					<comments>https://ethiopiantribune.com/2026/07/south-africas-anti-immigrant-violence-africans-targeting-africans/#respond</comments>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Ethiopian Tribune editor]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 08 Jul 2026 05:09:09 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[News]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Opinion]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Sustainability]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[#EthiopianTribune]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ethiopian News]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ethiopian Tribune]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Girma Berhanu (Professor)]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ኢትዮጵያ]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://ethiopiantribune.com/?p=4859</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Editorial Foreword The Spear We Helped to Forge A foreword to Professor Girma Berhanu’s essay...]]></description>
			
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            </div><p><!-- ============================================================ THE ETHIOPIAN TRIBUNE — EDITORIAL FOREWORD & SYNOPSIS Paste directly into the WordPress block editor (Custom HTML / Classic block). Inline-styled for portability. British English throughout. Palette: crimson #7A0C0C · goldenrod #B8860B · Palatino Linotype. NOTE: replace {{FULL_ARTICLE_URL}} with the live link before publishing. ============================================================ --></p>
<div style="max-width: 760px; margin: 0 auto; font-family: 'Palatino Linotype','Book Antiqua',Palatino,Georgia,serif; color: #1a1a1a; line-height: 1.7; font-size: 19px">
<p style="text-align: center; font-size: 13px; letter-spacing: 2px; text-transform: uppercase; color: #B8860B; font-weight: bold; margin: 0 0 6px 0"><strong>Editorial Foreword</strong></p>
<h1 style="text-align: center; font-family: 'Palatino Linotype','Book Antiqua',Palatino,Georgia,serif; color: #7A0C0C; font-size: 38px; line-height: 1.15; margin: 0 0 10px 0; font-weight: bold">The Spear We Helped to Forge</h1>
<p style="text-align: center; font-style: italic; font-size: 18px; color: #4a4a4a; margin: 0 auto 26px auto; max-width: 600px"><em>A foreword to Professor Girma Berhanu’s essay on South Africa’s anti-immigrant violence and the shared history that makes it unbearable to watch.</em></p>
<hr style="border: 0; border-top: 2px solid #B8860B; width: 90px; margin: 0 auto 30px auto">
<p style="margin: 0 0 20px 0; text-align: justify"><span style="float: left; font-family: 'Palatino Linotype','Book Antiqua',Palatino,Georgia,serif; font-size: 76px; line-height: 58px; font-weight: bold; padding: 4px 10px 0 0">T</span>here are betrayals that wound precisely because of what came before them. When a stranger turns on you, the injury is simple. When someone you once armed and sheltered does, the injury carries the whole weight of the history you shared. It is this second, heavier grief that runs beneath Professor Girma Berhanu’s latest essay for this newspaper, and it is why we commend it to our readers with particular care.</p>
<p style="margin: 0 0 20px 0; text-align: justify">The Professor of the University of Gothenburg, and a contributor whose scholarship has enriched these pages across many months, on subjects ranging from the Amhara question to the health of Ethiopian democracy turns here to the mob violence that has once more engulfed African migrants in South Africa. Ethiopians have been among the dead. He asks us to hold two facts in the same hand: that our compatriots are being burned, beaten and driven from their livelihoods; and that it was Ethiopia, six decades ago, that helped teach the men of <em>Umkhonto we Sizwe</em> how to fight.</p>
<p style="margin: 0 0 20px 0; text-align: justify">That is not a rhetorical flourish. It is a matter of record one this newspaper has itself reported at first hand, through the testimony of an Ethiopian officer who trained fighters of the Spear of the Nation for the armed struggle. When Professor Berhanu describes the young Nelson Mandela receiving military instruction on Ethiopian soil in 1962, he is naming a debt that South Africa’s own liberation history acknowledges. The essay’s force lies in the distance between that debt and the present cruelty.</p>
<p style="margin: 0 0 20px 0; text-align: justify">Readers will know that the Tribune has devoted sustained coverage to this crisis from <em>“Pass Freely and Without Hindrance”</em> to <em>“The Deadline and the Debt”</em> and our analysis of the countermeasures now open to African states. Professor Berhanu widens the frame from policy to conscience. He is not content to catalogue the violence; he asks what African solidarity was ever for, if it dissolves the moment the shooting stops and the invoices arrive.</p>
<p style="margin: 0 0 26px 0; text-align: justify">We are grateful, as ever, for his continued generosity to our readership, and proud to carry his voice. A synopsis follows; the essay may be read in full via the link below.</p>
<p style="text-align: right; font-style: italic; color: #7A0C0C; margin: 0 0 40px 0"><em>— The Editors, <span style="font-variant: small-caps">The Ethiopian Tribune</span></em></p>
<p><!-- ===================== SYNOPSIS ===================== --></p>
<h2 style="text-align: center; font-family: 'Palatino Linotype','Book Antiqua',Palatino,Georgia,serif; text-transform: uppercase; letter-spacing: 3px; color: #B8860B; font-size: 20px; margin: 0 0 6px 0; font-weight: bold">Synopsis</h2>
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<p style="margin: 0 0 20px 0; text-align: justify">Professor Berhanu builds his essay in three movements.</p>
<p style="margin: 0 0 20px 0; text-align: justify">He opens on the violence itself: the recurring waves of mob attacks on foreign African nationals, justified in the language of stolen jobs and illegal residence, and the human wreckage they leave behind the dead, the looted shops, the displaced families. He notes that some governments, Nigeria among them, have moved to evacuate their citizens and even to document their losses for future compensation, while Ethiopia, he argues, has too often stood by. From this he draws the essay’s two organising questions: what concrete measures could end the violence, and how might African states and institutions be mobilised to hold South Africa to account?</p>
<p style="margin: 0 0 20px 0; text-align: justify">The central section is a work of historical retrieval. Here he sets out Ethiopia’s contribution to the anti-apartheid struggle: the military training of the ANC’s armed wing, including Mandela’s own instruction in 1962; the diplomatic and political campaigning against the apartheid regime; the seat of the Organisation of African Unity in Addis Ababa; the moral leadership of Emperor Haile Selassie; and the deeper symbolism of Adwa in 1896 and of an Ethiopia that never fell. Solidarity, he reminds us, was not a slogan but a policy paid for in scarce resources and, elsewhere on the continent, in lives.</p>
<p style="margin: 0 0 20px 0; text-align: justify">He then turns to the anatomy of the violence in present-day South Africa: the structural drivers of unemployment, inequality and poverty; the scapegoating of migrants against the weight of the evidence; and government responses he judges long on condemnation and enforcement yet short on prevention. Most pointedly, he sets out the paradox that animates the piece that a wealthy minority, insulated by private security and now courted for expedited asylum abroad, escapes the street-level fury that instead falls upon the poorest and least protected. Civil society, he argues, must carry much of the work that policing alone cannot.</p>
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<p style="font-style: italic; font-size: 24px; line-height: 1.5; color: #7A0C0C; margin: 0"><em>“Why fight someone who is as poor and hungry as you are while leaving unchallenged the structures that have concentrated so much of the nation’s wealth?”</em></p>
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<p style="margin: 0 0 30px 0; text-align: justify">The essay closes where it began with Ethiopia, and with a charge against the Ethiopian state, whose apparent indifference to its citizens abroad Professor Berhanu names as a second tragedy laid atop the first. The victims, he insists, deserve justice; their families deserve compassion; and Africa deserves better than a future in which those who once stood together against oppression are divided by fear.</p>
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<p style="margin: 0 0 14px 0; font-size: 18px; color: #333">Professor Berhanu’s full essay — with his recommendations and sources — may be read in its entirety.</p>
<p><strong><a href="https://ethiopiantribune.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/ethiopias-contribution-to-the-anc-during-the-anti-apartheid-struggle.docx" style="display: inline-block; font-family: 'Palatino Linotype','Book Antiqua',Palatino,Georgia,serif; text-transform: uppercase; letter-spacing: 2px; font-size: 15px; font-weight: bold; color: #ffffff; background: #7A0C0C; text-decoration: none; padding: 12px 30px">Read the Full Essay →</a></strong></p>
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</div>
<p><strong><a href="https://ethiopiantribune.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/ethiopias-contribution-to-the-anc-during-the-anti-apartheid-struggle.docx">ethiopias-contribution-to-the-anc-during-the-anti-apartheid-struggle.docx</a></strong></p>


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		<post-id xmlns="com-wordpress:feed-additions:1">4859</post-id>	</item>
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		<title>Writing Across Borders: An Autoethnography of Transnational Scholarship, Diaspora Politics, and the Amhara Struggle</title>
		<link>https://ethiopiantribune.com/2026/07/writing-across-borders-an-autoethnography-of-transnational-scholarship-diaspora-politics-and-the-amhara-struggle/</link>
					<comments>https://ethiopiantribune.com/2026/07/writing-across-borders-an-autoethnography-of-transnational-scholarship-diaspora-politics-and-the-amhara-struggle/#comments</comments>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Ethiopian Tribune editor]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 04 Jul 2026 12:56:55 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Opinion]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Sustainability]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Girma Berhanu (Professor)]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://ethiopiantribune.com/?p=4848</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Autoethnography · Diaspora Politics · The Amhara Struggle Writing Across Borders: An Autoethnography of Transnational...]]></description>
			
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            </div><p><!-- ============================================================ THE ETHIOPIAN TRIBUNE — WORDPRESS-READY (inline-styled) HTML Piece: "Writing Across Borders" by Girma Berhanu (Professor) Editor's Foreword + Synopsis + full essay in house format Paste directly into a WordPress Custom HTML block. ============================================================ --></p>
<div style="max-width: 720px; margin: 0 auto; padding: 8px 4px 40px; font-family: 'Palatino Linotype','Book Antiqua',Palatino,Georgia,serif; color: #1a1a1a; font-size: 18px; line-height: 1.72">
<p><!-- KICKER --></p>
<p style="font-family: Georgia,serif; text-transform: uppercase; letter-spacing: .2em; font-size: 12px; font-weight: bold; color: #B8860B; margin: 0 0 .4em"><strong>Autoethnography · Diaspora Politics · The Amhara Struggle</strong></p>
<p><!-- TITLE --></p>
<h1 style="font-family: 'Palatino Linotype','Book Antiqua',Palatino,serif; color: #7A0C0C; font-size: 33px; line-height: 1.18; font-weight: bold; margin: .05em 0 .25em">Writing Across Borders: An Autoethnography of Transnational Scholarship, Diaspora Politics, and the Amhara Struggle</h1>
<p><!-- BYLINE --></p>
<p style="font-style: italic; color: #555; font-size: 16px; margin: 0 0 .3em"><em>By Girma Berhanu — Professor, University of Gothenburg</em></p>
<hr style="border: 0; border-top: 2px solid #7A0C0C; margin: 1em 0 0">
<p><!-- ============ EDITOR'S FOREWORD ============ --></p>
<h2 style="font-family: Georgia,serif; text-transform: uppercase; letter-spacing: .15em; color: #B8860B; font-size: 15px; font-weight: bold; border-bottom: 1px solid #e3c977; padding-bottom: .35em; margin: 1.8em 0 .9em">Editor’s Foreword</h2>
<p style="margin: 0 0 1.15em">Professor Girma Berhanu returns to these pages with a different kind of essay from the ones our readers have come to expect of him. Where his earlier contributions turned an unsparing analytical eye on the state — on fascistic drift, on the machinery of dehumanising discourse — this one turns that same eye inward: upon the diaspora that has claimed to speak for the Amhara, and upon the author himself.</p>
<p style="margin: 0 0 1.15em">It is, by his own description, an autoethnography — a method in which the scholar becomes his own case study, and personal experience is treated as evidence rather than anecdote. The result is a candid, at times uncomfortable, reckoning with what more than two decades of transnational advocacy have actually yielded, and with the internal habits that, in his judgement, have blunted the movement’s effectiveness as surely as any adversary.</p>
<p style="margin: 0 0 1.15em">We publish it in that spirit. The Tribune has never held that solidarity requires silence, or that a cause is best served by refusing to examine its own conduct. Professor Berhanu’s willingness to name factionalism, status rivalry, and what he calls <em>məqəñña</em> — malicious envy — as political forces in their own right is precisely the kind of reflection a movement under existential pressure can least afford to dismiss. Readers will not agree with every judgement here; the author would be the first to insist that they should not. But the essay’s central plea — that we learn to disagree without destroying one another — deserves a hearing.</p>
<p style="margin: 0 0 1.15em">This is the first instalment of a longer work. We look forward to what follows.</p>
<p style="text-align: right; font-style: italic; color: #7A0C0C; margin: 1.2em 0 0"><em>— The Editors, <span style="font-variant: small-caps">The Ethiopian Tribune</span></em></p>
<p><!-- ============ SYNOPSIS ============ --></p>
<h2 style="font-family: Georgia,serif; text-transform: uppercase; letter-spacing: .15em; color: #B8860B; font-size: 15px; font-weight: bold; border-bottom: 1px solid #e3c977; padding-bottom: .35em; margin: 1.9em 0 .9em">Synopsis</h2>
<p style="margin: 0 0 1.15em">Drawing on Nina Glick Schiller’s concept of transnational “social fields”, Professor Girma Berhanu offers a personal reckoning with more than two decades of diaspora engagement on behalf of the Amhara cause. He recounts his early advocacy — some eighty articles, among them what he believes was the first published study of the Fano movement — and his gradual retreat from organised diaspora politics, driven by ill health but also by frustration with what he characterises as short-term thinking, ethnic factionalism, and an inability to disagree without rancour.</p>
<p style="margin: 0 0 1.15em">The essay dwells on a recurring irony: that some of the sharpest resistance to his criticism of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed came not from the government’s supporters but from within the Amhara diaspora, whose members, he notes, often revised their views only later. He contrasts the personalised hostility of certain diaspora forums with the reasoned public debate he has encountered in Sweden, his adopted home, and traces the same fractures through rival Amhara-studies journals, stalled accountability initiatives, and the reflexive belittling of Ethiopian achievement. Against all of this he sets the ethical counterweight of intellectual humility — and argues that a movement facing an existential threat cannot afford to spend its energies fighting itself.</p>
<p><!-- ornamental divider marking start of the essay proper --></p>
<p style="text-align: center; color: #B8860B; font-size: 20px; letter-spacing: .5em; margin: 2em 0 1.4em">❧</p>
<p><!-- ============ THE ESSAY ============ --></p>
<p style="margin: 0 0 1.15em"><span style="float: left; font-family: 'Palatino Linotype','Book Antiqua',Palatino,serif; font-size: 66px; line-height: .78; font-weight: bold; padding: 6px 10px 0 0">W</span>hen immigrants engage in transnational activities, they create “social fields” that connect their country of origin with their country or countries of settlement. As Nina Glick Schiller and colleagues define it, “transnationalism is the process by which immigrants build social fields that link together their country of origin and their country of settlement.” These social fields emerge through interconnected and overlapping economic, political, and socio-cultural activities.</p>
<p style="margin: 0 0 1.15em">This concept is relevant to the material I have included concerning my engagement with the Ethiopian diaspora and the Amhara cause. My analysis is informed by an autoethnographic approach, which will be discussed in greater detail in a later section. At this stage, I present only a preliminary account to illustrate how my own experiences as a member of the diaspora have shaped my understanding of transnational engagement.</p>
<p style="margin: 0 0 1.15em">Deeply concerned by the war in Ethiopia and by what I perceive as a system of ethnic apartheid, particularly the continuing massacres of the Amhara people, I began writing to raise awareness and to serve as a voice for those whose suffering was receiving insufficient international attention.</p>
<p style="margin: 0 0 1.15em">Over the years, I have expressed my views through a variety of media, published books on the Amhara issue, and, to the best of my knowledge, became the first author to publish an article on Fano, highlighting its strength, its Ethiopian identity, and its role as a defender of Ethiopia. I take pride in having documented the movement during its formative period and in recording its early development.</p>
<p style="margin: 0 0 1.15em">I continued to write in an effort to clarify the nature of the conflict and participated in numerous committees and diaspora initiatives. In my assessment, however, many of these efforts produced limited results. Too often, they were constrained by ideological rigidity, personal rivalries, and an unwillingness to engage constructively with differing perspectives. While Amhara civilians were being killed and entire communities were suffering, many diaspora discussions became preoccupied with personal prestige, internal disputes, and organisational fragmentation rather than practical strategies for addressing the humanitarian crisis.</p>
<p style="margin: 0 0 1.15em">After writing approximately 80 articles of varying lengths, participating in numerous television and YouTube discussions, and engaging in advocacy for social justice and human rights, I gradually reduced my involvement. This decision was influenced partly by health considerations but also by a growing sense of frustration. In my experience, sections of the diaspora were hindered by short-term thinking, internal divisions, ethnic factionalism, and a lack of strategic vision. From my perspective, these weaknesses diminished the diaspora’s capacity to respond effectively and created opportunities for the Abiy Ahmed government to continue policies that, in my view, targeted the Amhara population. Tragically, the violence and repression have not been confined to one community; many members of other ethnic groups, including the Prime Minister’s own, have also suffered.</p>
<p style="margin: 0 0 1.15em">More recently, my scholarly and public engagement has shifted toward the society of my adopted country, Sweden. I have written about language, education, inclusion, and broader social issues. The contrast in public discourse has been striking. The responses have generally been respectful, thoughtful, and constructive. Rather than hostility, I have encountered engagement; rather than personal attacks, I have found reasoned arguments and dialogue.</p>
<p><!-- PULL QUOTE 1 --></p>
<p style="max-width: 82%; margin: 1.7em auto; text-align: center; font-style: italic; color: #7A0C0C; font-size: 22px; line-height: 1.45; border-top: 2px solid #9E1B32; border-bottom: 2px solid #9E1B32; padding: .7em 0"><em>Rather than hostility, I have encountered engagement; rather than personal attacks, I have found reasoned arguments and dialogue.</em></p>
<p style="margin: 0 0 1.15em">This experience has renewed my motivation to write. It has also reinforced my interest in understanding how transnational identities evolve over time and how scholars and activists negotiate commitments to both their country of origin and their country of residence. These reflections form an integral part of the autoethnographic perspective developed in this study.</p>
<p style="margin: 0 0 1.15em">As I write these reflections, I am in Bhutan. The distance from Sweden and Ethiopia has given me time to think about future writing projects. I already have several ideas for debate articles that I hope to publish in Sweden’s national newspapers. It is encouraging to experience an intellectual environment in which ideas are met with serious discussion and where writing has the potential to contribute meaningfully to public debate. This contrasts sharply with many of my experiences within parts of the Ethiopian diaspora.</p>
<p style="margin: 0 0 1.15em">One example illustrates this point. When I published my article, <em>The Many Faces of Abiy Ahmed: Prime Minister of Ethiopia and Nobel Peace Laureate</em>, I expected criticism from supporters of the Ethiopian government. Instead, some of the strongest criticism came from individuals within the Amhara diaspora. Several prominent intellectuals argued that my assessment of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed was too severe. Others maintained that criticism of his government should be postponed because the priority at the time was the war against the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). In retrospect, I found these reactions striking because many of the same individuals later expressed disappointment with Abiy Ahmed’s policies and acknowledged that they had misjudged his leadership.</p>
<p style="margin: 0 0 1.15em">A similar pattern emerged when I wrote about the massacres of Amhara civilians in Wollega. Rather than engaging with the evidence I presented, some commentators rejected my conclusions and argued that responsibility lay elsewhere, attributing the violence primarily to TPLF elements rather than to local Oromo actors or broader state dynamics. These exchanges revealed to me how political loyalties and preconceived narratives often shaped interpretations of events more strongly than empirical evidence.</p>
<p style="margin: 0 0 1.15em">From my perspective, the war against the TPLF ultimately proved devastating for the Amhara population. The conflict resulted in enormous human suffering, displacement, and destruction. Schools, health facilities, and other public institutions were damaged or destroyed, and civilians endured killings, sexual violence, and widespread insecurity. My own interpretation has been that these events reflected not only the dynamics of the war itself but also broader political strategies that increasingly marginalised and targeted the Amhara population. This interpretation, however, was not widely shared within sections of the diaspora at the time.</p>
<p style="margin: 0 0 1.15em">I was also struck by the willingness of some academics and public intellectuals to align themselves publicly with the government during the conflict. Some travelled to the war front wearing military uniforms and presented themselves as supporters of the government’s military campaign. Looking back, I believe that many underestimated the longer-term implications of these alliances.</p>
<p style="margin: 0 0 1.15em">Another example concerns my article, <em>A Nation Held Hostage</em>, published in Borkena and Euro Asia Review on 12 July 2025. The article examined statements made by three prominent Oromo political figures — Taye Dendea, Jawar Mohammed, and Milkesa Midhaga — who publicly accused Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed of harbouring intentions to eliminate the Amhara people. These individuals had previously been close to the Prime Minister and claimed to possess firsthand knowledge of his governing style and use of political violence. One was imprisoned, while the other two had left the country. Their statements generated considerable discussion and raised important questions about why such criticisms emerged only after their political relationships with the government had broken down.</p>
<p style="margin: 0 0 1.15em">Following publication of the article, I was contacted by members of Fano and other members of the public who asked me to analyse the significance of these developments. I attempted to place the statements within a broader political context and to explore their implications. Yet even this effort was met with resistance in some diaspora discussion forums. Rather than engaging with the substance of the analysis, some participants dismissed the article outright or suggested that no commentary was needed. Such reactions reinforced my impression that meaningful intellectual debate was often displaced by entrenched positions and an unwillingness to consider alternative interpretations.</p>
<p style="margin: 0 0 1.15em">Another experience further illustrates this pattern. In my essay, <em>Political Activism and Emotional Labilities: The Case of the Amhara Struggle for Survival in Ethiopia and Its Diaspora</em>, I explored the emotional dimensions of prolonged political activism and how trauma, frustration, and polarisation can influence diaspora politics. The argument was not that activists were emotionally unstable or therefore disqualified from political engagement. Rather, I examined how prolonged exposure to conflict can shape collective behaviour and decision-making. Nevertheless, one commentator publicly misrepresented my argument as an attack on all diaspora activists. The resulting criticism generated numerous hostile responses from individuals who, in my view, had not read the article carefully or engaged with its central argument.</p>
<p style="margin: 0 0 1.15em">These experiences are not isolated incidents. Rather, they form part of a broader pattern that I have observed over many years of writing, research, and public engagement. They have profoundly shaped my understanding of transnational political activism, diaspora communities, and the challenges of maintaining evidence-based dialogue in highly polarised environments. These reflections constitute an important dimension of the autoethnographic perspective developed in this study.</p>
<p style="margin: 0 0 1.15em">Recently, I wrote an article titled “A Professor Without Friends: Scholarship, Activism, and the Cost of Speaking Out”. The essay is a personal reflection on how my academic and political engagement has affected my relationships. I explain that throughout my career I have chosen to speak publicly about political injustice, human rights abuses, and governance in Ethiopia, even when doing so has been unpopular. I argue that this commitment to open criticism has gradually cost me friendships, professional relationships, and acceptance within parts of the Ethiopian diaspora.</p>
<p style="margin: 0 0 1.15em">In the essay, I describe how I first criticised the former Ethiopian government (the EPRDF), particularly what I viewed as ethnic favouritism, corruption, and human rights violations. Later, after the change in government, I also criticised the administration of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, arguing that Ethiopia continued to experience ethnic violence, displacement, and democratic decline. I present these criticisms as attempts to follow evidence rather than political loyalty.</p>
<p style="margin: 0 0 1.15em">According to my interpretation, many people reacted negatively because they expected loyalty to political or ethnic camps rather than independent criticism. As a result, some friends and acquaintances distanced themselves from me, and I withdrew from certain community and church activities where I felt honest discussion was discouraged. Over time, however, I came to see this isolation as having both costs and benefits. While it reduced my sense of social belonging, it also gave me greater intellectual independence and more time for research, writing, and mentoring disadvantaged young people, work that I consider deeply meaningful.</p>
<p style="margin: 0 0 1.15em">The essay concludes with a broader argument: public intellectuals who challenge dominant narratives often pay a personal price. I suggest that preserving integrity and following evidence can be more important than maintaining popularity or social acceptance. The tension between truth and belonging, in my view, is not unique to Ethiopia but reflects a more universal human experience.</p>
<p style="margin: 0 0 1.15em">One might ask what this has to do with the broader theme of this study. The connection is that many of our political and diaspora discussions still struggle with a basic democratic practice: the ability to disagree without resorting to personal attacks. Respectful and civilised debate is especially important during what many people perceive as an existential struggle. Without it, collective learning and strategic thinking become difficult.</p>
<p style="margin: 0 0 1.15em">I have personally experienced forms of bullying and dismissive treatment during some public discussions, including YouTube debates. These experiences revealed how easily conversations can become dominated by ego, historical grievances, and factional loyalties rather than substantive analysis. I also observed recurring disputes about the legacy of the Ethiopian student movement and organisations such as the EPRP. Some participants emphasised the positive contributions of these movements, while others, including myself, raised questions about how certain revolutionary projects may have been influenced, intentionally or unintentionally, by separatist and anti-Ethiopian currents.</p>
<p style="margin: 0 0 1.15em">In one instance, I attempted to collaborate with a well-known public figure on educational issues affecting the Amhara region, where millions of children have been out of school because of conflict and instability. The collaboration ended quickly because we differed significantly in communication style, priorities, and decision-making approaches. Rather than viewing this as a personal failing, I came to see it as another example of how difficult sustained cooperation can be in highly polarised environments.</p>
<p style="margin: 0 0 1.15em">These experiences eventually led me to think more deeply about the role of jealousy, status competition, and what in Amharic is often called <em>məqəñña</em> (“malicious envy”). I was encouraged to investigate this phenomenon further, and over several years I developed the argument that forms of envy and status rivalry have sometimes shaped Ethiopian political and intellectual life in ways that deserve more systematic study. I discuss these ideas in greater detail in my essay “Understanding Malicious Envy (ም႕ኛ, <em>məqəñña</em>): Political, Social, and Economic Implications in Ethiopia.”</p>
<p style="margin: 0 0 1.15em">At the same time, I should emphasise that my experience within the diaspora has not been uniformly negative. On the contrary, I have had the privilege of knowing many thoughtful, principled, and consistently supportive individuals whose integrity, generosity, and commitment to the common good have earned my enduring respect. Among those for whom I have particular appreciation are Major Dawit Wolde Giorgis, Prince Dr. Asfawossen Asrate Kassa, and Dr. Wondimu Makonnen, as well as many others whose friendship, encouragement, and example have enriched my journey.</p>
<p style="margin: 0 0 1.15em">One of the most troubling patterns I have observed within sections of the Amhara diaspora concerns the nature of public debate itself. A considerable proportion of online media has become dominated not by substantive discussion of ideas but by personal attacks against individuals who express dissenting opinions. Rather than engaging with evidence or competing interpretations, some platforms devote extensive time to criticising particular personalities. In some cases, programmes have repeatedly targeted the same individuals over many months, turning political discussion into a form of personal confrontation. Such practices weaken public discourse and divert attention from the urgent humanitarian and political challenges facing the Amhara people. From my perspective, this atmosphere of mutual hostility has inadvertently benefited those in power by encouraging Amharas to attack one another rather than concentrating on the structural causes of the crisis.</p>
<p style="margin: 0 0 1.15em">A similar pattern has emerged in academic initiatives. There are currently two journals devoted to Amhara studies. The Journal of Amhara Studies (JAS), established several years ago, was created to provide an independent scholarly platform for research on Amhara history, culture, society, language, politics, and development. More recently, another journal with a very similar title was established. At an early stage, representatives from our editorial board approached the organisers in the hope of avoiding unnecessary duplication and public confusion. Instead of exploring collaboration between two complementary scholarly initiatives, discussions focused primarily on whether one journal should simply be absorbed into the other. From my perspective, this represented a missed opportunity for cooperation.</p>
<p style="margin: 0 0 1.15em">At one point, a respected professor attempted to facilitate dialogue between the two initiatives. Initially, I welcomed the proposal. However, it became clear that differences extended beyond academic matters and reflected political alignments within the broader Amhara movement. My own position has consistently been that a scholarly journal should remain independent of political factions. Its primary purpose should be to advance reliable scientific knowledge about the history, culture, economy, language, and social conditions of the Amhara people, subjects that, in my view, have frequently been misrepresented or neglected in both Ethiopian and international scholarship. Academic work should seek evidence rather than factional advantage.</p>
<p style="margin: 0 0 1.15em">My experiences have also highlighted the influence of international actors in shaping narratives about Ethiopia. For example, I have publicly disagreed with interpretations advanced by some foreign scholars whose work, in my opinion, presents a partial understanding of Ethiopia’s political history and territorial disputes. Rather than engaging these disagreements through sustained scholarly dialogue, debates often became personalised and polarised. These experiences reinforced my belief that disagreements over Ethiopia should be addressed through rigorous scholarship rather than ideological commitment.</p>
<p><!-- PULL QUOTE 2 --></p>
<p style="max-width: 82%; margin: 1.7em auto; text-align: center; font-style: italic; color: #7A0C0C; font-size: 22px; line-height: 1.45; border-top: 2px solid #9E1B32; border-bottom: 2px solid #9E1B32; padding: .7em 0"><em>A movement confronting existential threats cannot afford to devote its energies to internal hostility, factionalism, and personal rivalries.</em></p>
<p style="margin: 0 0 1.15em">Looking back, many of my own initiatives eventually reached a dead end. This included efforts to promote international legal accountability for atrocities committed during the conflict, as well as projects aimed at protecting civilians from drone attacks and documenting human rights violations. Although considerable work was undertaken by dedicated individuals, progress was frequently slowed by organisational fragmentation, limited transparency, interpersonal conflict, and competing political loyalties. These human factors repeatedly emerged as major obstacles to effective collective action.</p>
<p style="margin: 0 0 1.15em">Another incident further illustrates the broader cultural challenges I have observed. When news spread that an Ethiopian-born politician had achieved a significant electoral victory in the United States, I expected many Ethiopians to celebrate this accomplishment regardless of political or personal differences. Instead, much of the discussion quickly shifted toward debates about the politician’s personal identity, religious beliefs, ethnicity, and sexual orientation. Rather than recognising the broader significance of an Ethiopian immigrant reaching such a prominent political position, many commentators focused on characteristics unrelated to public service.</p>
<p style="margin: 0 0 1.15em">One reflection on social media particularly resonated with me. It argued that Ethiopians too often undermine one another’s achievements, celebrate negative news more readily than positive developments, and carry political, ethnic, and religious conflicts into diaspora communities rather than leaving them behind. Although expressed informally, I believe this observation captures an important aspect of our political culture.</p>
<p><!-- CITED BLOCKQUOTE (Abebe Haregewoin FB post) --></p>
<blockquote style="margin: 1.4em 0; padding: .5em 0 .5em 1.2em; border-left: 3px solid #9E1B32; font-style: italic; color: #333"><p><em>As a practising Ethiopian Orthodox Christian, I have often reflected on the contrast between these public exchanges and the ethical teachings of Christianity. The story in the Gospel of John, in which Jesus tells those preparing to stone a woman accused of adultery, “Let the one who is without sin cast the first stone,” serves as a powerful reminder of humility, compassion, and self-examination. Whether or not one approaches this passage from a religious perspective, it illustrates the importance of judging others with restraint and recognising one’s own limitations before condemning others.<br />
<span style="display: block; margin-top: .6em; font-style: normal; font-size: 14px">— Dr. Abebe Haregewoin, Facebook post, 1 June 2026</span></em></p>
</blockquote>
<p style="margin: 0 0 1.15em">These experiences have strengthened my conviction that evidence-based dialogue, tolerance, and intellectual humility remain underdeveloped within significant parts of the Ethiopian diaspora. Too often, disagreement becomes personalised rather than analytical. Tribal loyalties, status competition, and what I have elsewhere described as <em>məqəñña</em> (malicious envy) continue to influence public discourse in ways that undermine collective action.</p>
<p style="margin: 0 0 1.15em">This, in my view, represents one of the greatest challenges facing the Amhara struggle today. A movement confronting existential threats cannot afford to devote its energies to internal hostility, factionalism, and personal rivalries. Instead of collectively responding to misinformation, international misunderstanding, and the humanitarian crisis affecting Amharas, considerable energy is spent attacking fellow Amharas. Such dynamics weaken both intellectual life and political advocacy.</p>
<p style="margin: 0 0 1.15em">Despite these frustrations, I remain committed to contributing through scholarship, public writing, and evidence-based analysis. My goal is not to speak for any political faction but to contribute to a more informed understanding of Ethiopia and to give voice to communities whose experiences have often been overlooked. The reflections presented here are not intended simply as personal grievances. Rather, they constitute part of an autoethnographic account of how intellectual engagement, diaspora politics, and social behaviour intersect in contexts of prolonged conflict and national crisis. If these experiences can contribute to a more reflective and constructive culture of dialogue, then they will have served a worthwhile purpose.</p>
<p style="text-align: center; font-style: italic; color: #7A0C0C; margin: 1.6em 0"><em>To be continued…</em></p>
<p><!-- REFERENCES --></p>
<h2 style="font-family: Georgia,serif; text-transform: uppercase; letter-spacing: .15em; color: #B8860B; font-size: 15px; font-weight: bold; border-bottom: 1px solid #e3c977; padding-bottom: .35em; margin: 2em 0 .9em">References</h2>
<p style="font-size: 15px; line-height: 1.6; color: #333; margin: 0 0 1em">Schiller, Nina Glick; Basch, Linda; Blanc-Szanton, Cristina (1992). “Transnationalism: A New Analytic Framework for Understanding Migration”. <em>Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences</em>. 645 (1 Towards a Tra): 1–24. Bibcode:1992NYASA.645&#8230;.1S. doi:10.1111/j.1749-6632.1992.tb33484.x. ISSN&nbsp;0077-8923. PMID&nbsp;1497251. S2CID&nbsp;13856191.</p>
<p style="font-size: 15px; line-height: 1.6; color: #333; margin: 0 0 1.4em"><a href="https://muckrack.com/girma-berhanu/articles" style="color: #9E1B32">https://muckrack.com/girma-berhanu/articles</a></p>
<p><!-- AUTHOR BLOCK --></p>
<div style="border-top: 2px solid #7A0C0C; margin-top: 1.6em; padding-top: 1em; font-size: 15px; line-height: 1.55; color: #333">
<p style="margin: 0 0 .5em"><strong style="font-variant: small-caps; letter-spacing: .03em">Girma Berhanu</strong><br />
Professor, University of Gothenburg<br />
Department of Education and Special Education<br />
Västra Hamngatan 25, A-hus room 168<br />
Box 300, 405 30 Göteborg, Sweden</p>
<p style="margin: 0; color: #555">Office: +46-(0)31-786&nbsp;2325 &nbsp;·&nbsp; Mobile: +46&nbsp;704731818<br />
<a href="mailto:girma.berhanu@ped.gu.se" style="color: #9E1B32">girma.berhanu@ped.gu.se</a> &nbsp;·&nbsp; <a href="https://www.ips.gu.se" style="color: #9E1B32">www.ips.gu.se</a></p>
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					<wfw:commentRss>https://ethiopiantribune.com/2026/07/writing-across-borders-an-autoethnography-of-transnational-scholarship-diaspora-politics-and-the-amhara-struggle/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
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		<post-id xmlns="com-wordpress:feed-additions:1">4848</post-id>	</item>
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		<title>The Wall of Silence</title>
		<link>https://ethiopiantribune.com/2026/06/the-wall-of-silence/</link>
					<comments>https://ethiopiantribune.com/2026/06/the-wall-of-silence/#respond</comments>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Ethiopian Tribune editor]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 18 Jun 2026 08:50:01 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[African News]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[News]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Opinion]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Sustainability]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[#EthiopianTribune]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ethionews]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ethiopia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ethiopian Tribune]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[prince dr Asfaw Wossen Asrate Kassa]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ኢትዮጵያ]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://ethiopiantribune.com/?p=4761</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[His thesis was delivered in the flat, exhausted register of a man who has made the argument before. Ethiopia, he said, is not enduring a civil war but several at once, governed throughout by what he called an ethnic-elite lens that has hollowed out its institutions, its press and its courts. The portion he had come to document was the fate of the Orthodox Tewahedo Church — an institution he dated to the first century, older than the Roman and the Byzantine traditions, custodian of the Books of Enoch and Jubilees and of manuscripts that survive nowhere else on earth. For eight consecutive years, he charged, a coordinated campaign has been waged against Orthodox communities in parts of Ethiopia, and above all in Oromia.]]></description>
			
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<p class="kicker">Europe &middot; The Horn of Africa</p>
<h1>The Wall of Silence</h1>
<p class="standfirst">A prince of the old Solomonic line carried the case of Ethiopia&rsquo;s persecuted Orthodox Christians into the European Parliament. The institution has the power to act &mdash; and a long practice of looking away.</p>
<p class="byline">By <strong>E. Frashie</strong></p>
<p class="lead">The whole of southern Germany had stopped moving. Storms had taken down the railways, and the keynote speaker was late &mdash; he had changed trains four times and called it, when he finally reached the lectern, a small miracle that he had arrived at all. There is a metaphor in this that the afternoon did not need spelling out: a man had come to Brussels to testify to an erasure, and a collapsed timetable had nearly erased him from his own hearing. Prince Asfa-Wossen Asserate apologised for the delay, thanked the room, and proceeded to lay before it a charge sheet that the institutions of the West have spent the better part of a decade declining to read.</p>
<p>The hearing had been convened in the European Parliament under the intergroup on freedom of religion or belief, and organised by the European Centre for Law and Justice, a faith-aligned legal advocacy body whose report on the subject &mdash; bluntly titled <em class="term">The Silent Suffering of the Amhara People in Ethiopia</em> &mdash; was first published two years ago and has now been revised. The choice of witness was deliberate. Asfa-Wossen Asserate is a grand-nephew of Haile Selassie and a descendant of a Solomonic line that traces its claim to Aksum; he is also a German-based historian and author whose father was among the sixty senior officials executed on the Black Saturday of November 1974, while the prince, then a student, was stranded abroad. He has spent fifty years in exile. He is, in other words, the rare witness whom even an indifferent chamber finds difficult to wave away.</p>
<blockquote><p>He had come to testify to an erasure, and a collapsed rail timetable had nearly erased him from his own hearing.</p></blockquote>
<p>His thesis was delivered in the flat, exhausted register of a man who has made the argument before. Ethiopia, he said, is not enduring a civil war but several at once, governed throughout by what he called an ethnic-elite lens that has hollowed out its institutions, its press and its courts. The portion he had come to document was the fate of the Orthodox Tewahedo Church &mdash; an institution he dated to the first century, older than the Roman and the Byzantine traditions, custodian of the Books of Enoch and Jubilees and of manuscripts that survive nowhere else on earth. For eight consecutive years, he charged, a coordinated campaign has been waged against Orthodox communities in parts of Ethiopia, and above all in Oromia.</p>
<h2>The case, as he made it</h2>
<p>The specifics were grim and familiar to anyone who reads the Horn closely: churches burned to their foundations, some of them ancient repositories of manuscript heritage; priests, monks, deacons and nuns killed; crucifixes torn from the necks of worshippers, children among them, in footage that circulates widely and produces no arrests. The victims, the prince noted, are predominantly Amhara, but include Tigrayan, Gurage and Oromo Christians &mdash; a point worth holding onto, because it complicates any attempt to file the violence under ethnic politics alone. He reserved his sharpest language for what he described as the state&rsquo;s capture of the Church itself: the displacement of its canonical leadership, the installation of compliant bishops, and the dismantling of an autonomy that had survived emperors and Marxists alike. An institution that endured the Derg, in his telling, is now being asked to survive the peace.</p>
<p>On the gravest numbers, candour requires the distance the prince himself volunteered. His tally of nearly forty thousand casualties from federal air and drone strikes on Amhara across five months &mdash; some fourteen thousand of them dead, with further claims of mass rape, abduction and detention &mdash; was drawn, he conceded from the podium, from a single American monitor with few specialists on the country. Those figures sit far above anything in the independently documented record and should travel only with that caveat attached. The corroborated core of his case is narrower and no less damning. The Ethiopian Human Rights Commission has logged repeated mass killings of Orthodox Christians in the Arsi zone through this year; and in the final days of May, as the nation queued to vote, assailants moved through Arsi again, killing at least thirty-five worshippers and burning the Teleta Saint Gabriel church, a structure that had stood for a hundred and one years. The federal government blames the Oromo Liberation Army and the prime minister offered his condolences; the OLA denies responsibility and accuses forces aligned with the state. The attribution is contested. The dead are not.</p>
<blockquote><p>An institution that endured the Derg is now being asked to survive the peace.</p></blockquote>
<p>He widened the lens before closing. He cited the patriarch, Abune Matias, who in early May had pleaded with the country&rsquo;s leaders not to be ruthless with God&rsquo;s people. He noted that thousands of schools across Amhara stand damaged or destroyed and that, by the monitors he trusts, only about a fifth of the region&rsquo;s children now attend one. And he turned, pointedly, to the singer Teddy Afro, whose record <em class="term">Ethiora</em> &mdash; briefly the second-ranked album on a global chart &mdash; pleaded for reconciliation across faith and tribe, and whose premises were raided and whose managers were jailed for it. A confident state, the prince implied, does not fear a hymn to brotherhood.</p>
<h2>Six things he asked for</h2>
<div class="panel">
<h3>The prince&rsquo;s demands to the institutions of the West</h3>
<ol>
<li><strong>The United Nations</strong> &mdash; an independent Human Rights Council inquiry into the persecution of Orthodox Christians in Oromia, with particular attention to the Arsi massacres, the church burnings and the displacement of clergy.</li>
<li><strong>The United States</strong> &mdash; to invoke the International Religious Freedom Act and designate Ethiopia a Country of Particular Concern.</li>
<li><strong>The European Union</strong> &mdash; targeted sanctions on the officials within the government who have enabled, coordinated or shielded the perpetrators.</li>
<li><strong>The African Union</strong> &mdash; to end its institutional silence and acknowledge that a member state is committing crimes against its own religious minorities.</li>
<li><strong>The international criminal bodies</strong> &mdash; to begin the systematic documentation of evidence for prosecution, naming the prime minister and his senior security and political officials.</li>
<li><strong>The global media and civil society</strong> &mdash; to break the wall of silence, sustain coverage, and amplify the voices of those living in fear.</li>
</ol>
</div>
<h2>The institution he was addressing</h2>
<p>It is the fourth and sixth of these that the afternoon implicitly tested, because they were addressed to the very rooms in which he stood. Brussels is not wholly deaf to the subject: in January the Parliament passed its annual human-rights resolution and, for the first time, named &ldquo;Christianophobia&rdquo; as a global pattern. But a resolution is a sentence, and the prince had come to ask for verbs. The gap between the two is the whole of his complaint. The European Union has the legal machinery for targeted sanctions and the diplomatic standing to make an African Union member uncomfortable; what it has lacked, on Ethiopia, is the will to spend either.</p>
<p>He ended where such testimony always ends, with the roll-call of the previously ignored. The world expressed its remorse after Rwanda, after Sinjar, after Srebrenica, he said, and remorse that arrives after the fact is not justice; it is paperwork. The Church he had described has outlasted the fall of Aksum, the medieval invasions and the Derg&rsquo;s Marxist persecution across two thousand years. It would be a particular shame, he suggested, for it to be extinguished now, in plain sight, under the gaze of a world that possesses both the knowledge and the instruments to prevent it. Whether that world reaches for them, or reaches once more for the language of regret, is the only question the hearing actually posed &mdash; and the one it adjourned without answering.</p>
<blockquote><p>A resolution is a sentence, and the prince had come to ask for verbs.</p></blockquote>
<p class="end">&loz; &loz; &loz;</p>
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		<title>Not Imperial Vision but Sovereign and United Ethiopia</title>
		<link>https://ethiopiantribune.com/2026/06/not-imperial-vision-but-sovereign-and-united-ethiopia-reading-the-economist-and-horn-review-against-the-four-singular-interests/</link>
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		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Ethiopian Tribune editor]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 11 Jun 2026 11:40:01 +0000</pubDate>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://ethiopiantribune.com/2026/06/not-imperial-vision-but-sovereign-and-united-ethiopia-reading-the-economist-and-horn-review-against-the-four-singular-interests/</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Reading The Economist and Horn Review Against the Four Singular Interests By Mefkereseb G. Hailu...]]></description>
			
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<p class="p2 wp-block-paragraph">Reading The Economist and Horn Review Against the Four Singular Interests</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">By Mefkereseb G. Hailu (PhD)*</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>Editorial Foreword</strong></p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Ten days after Ethiopians went to the polls in an election whose conduct this publication has already documented in unsparing detail, from the 143 polling stations that never opened to the telecommunications blackouts that left whole zones uncounted the temptation, in Addis Ababa and the diaspora alike, is to settle on a verdict about the man who presided over it. Was the vote the death rattle of competitive politics, as The Economist concluded in its election-eve assessment of an “imperial vision”? Or was it, as Horn Review argued in the same week, the legitimate capstone of a state being patiently and irreversibly reconstituted? Dr Mefkereseb G. Hailu’s essay, the latest in a series that has run in these pages since his analysis of Adwa, GERD and the Red Sea, refuses both verdicts and in refusing them, makes an argument this newspaper considers worth taking seriously, even where it does not take it whole.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">His method is to insist that both readings, for all their sophistication, make the same mistake from opposite directions: each makes Abiy Ahmed the subject, when the architecture of the state is what actually determines what any leader can or cannot do. Readers of this series will recognise the scaffolding the four singular interests of unity, Red Sea sovereignty, broad-based development and GERD and what is new here is the discipline with which it is turned, in a single essay, against a Western newsmagazine and against a publication closely identified with the governing party itself. The section on the constitution’s vesting of sovereignty in “Nations, Nationalities and Peoples” rather than in the citizen is, whatever else readers make of the piece, among the clearest statements of that argument we have published.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">It is also, in places, an argument with this newspaper. Dr Hailu engages directly with our 29 May piece on The Economist‘s leader, “The Geography of Delusion,” and while his scepticism of the “imperial vision” framing runs in a similar direction to ours, his route there differs in ways readers should weigh rather than wave through not least his treatment of Article 51 and the Doumeira–Beilul claim, where the line between “peaceful priority” and a reserved right of last resort is doing a great deal of work, and where this newspaper’s own coverage of Eritrean and regional perspectives has been less sanguine about how that distinction is heard in Asmara and beyond. Similarly, his “ledger” of the second mandate crediting the float, the wheat programme and the corridor projects as deposits against a development account that this paper’s reporting has more often shown in deficit will strike some readers as generous in ways the polling-day record of 1 June, recounted in his own footnotes, does not obviously support.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">We publish the essay not because it resolves these tensions but because it sharpens them, and because the question it poses is it the constitution, stupid? is one this publication has circled for months without naming so directly. Readers will form their own view of how far structural diagnosis should extend absolution to the men who govern within, and profit from, the structure. That argument is the one worth having, and Dr Hailu has, characteristically, made it harder to avoid.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The full essay, with its complete argument, references and accompanying tables, can be read at the following link :-</p>



<div class="wp-block-file"><a href="https://ethiopiantribune.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/sovereign_united_ethiopia.pdf">sovereign_united_ethiopia.pdf</a><a href="https://ethiopiantribune.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/sovereign_united_ethiopia.pdf" class="wp-block-file__button wp-element-button" download>Download</a></div>



<p class="p1 wp-block-paragraph">∗<em>The author, aka MGH, is a global technical expert trained at the Defence Academy of the United Kingdom. The views expressed are his own and do not represent any institutional position. MGH can be reached via mefkereseb.hailu1990@gmail.com</em>.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Endex, Editorial Chief</p>


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		<title>The Ritual Before the Storm: Ethiopia’s 2026 Election and the Impossible Choice</title>
		<link>https://ethiopiantribune.com/2026/05/the-ritual-before-the-storm-ethiopias-2026-election-and-the-impossible-choice/</link>
					<comments>https://ethiopiantribune.com/2026/05/the-ritual-before-the-storm-ethiopias-2026-election-and-the-impossible-choice/#respond</comments>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Ethiopian Tribune editor]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 29 May 2026 22:05:05 +0000</pubDate>
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					<description><![CDATA[By The Editorial Team, The Ethiopian Tribune June 1st, 2026 the date every observer of...]]></description>
			
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<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong>By The Editorial Team, The Ethiopian Tribune</strong></p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><em>June 1st, 2026 the date every observer of Ethiopian politics has circled on their calendar, approaches with the inevitability of a ceremony whose outcome has already been inscribed. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s ruling Prosperity Party will retain power. The question everyone is asking is not whether this will happen, but whether it matters.</em></p>



<hr class="wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity"/>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">The Election Nobody Really Believes In</h2>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">There is a peculiar consensus forming across the analytical landscape of Ethiopia’s 2026 general election, one that cuts across ideological lines and institutional affiliations. From Professor Merera Gudina, the long-time opposition leader and chairman of the Oromo Federalist Congress, to Kjetil Tronvoll, the peace and conflict researcher at Oslo New University College, to Martin Plaut, the political analyst who has tracked Ethiopian politics for decades: the diagnosis is consistent. This election is what one might charitably call a “formal affair” and what one might more accurately describe as electoral theatre masquerading as democracy.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The numbers on the surface look respectable enough. The National Election Board of Ethiopia has registered 47 political parties and received nearly 11,000 candidates. Millions of Ethiopians are entitled to vote. These figures, published and circulated by the regime, are designed to impress international observers and satisfy donors weary of investing in states that cannot at least pretend to democratic procedure. They tell a story of competition, of choice, of civic participation.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">But then comes the asterisk. The ruling Prosperity Party holds 457 of 547 parliamentary seats. Political analysts are predicting that when the votes are tallied on June 1st, Abiy will secure a majority of over 90 per cent a landslide that bears the fingerprints not of democratic debate but of structural predetermination. What the election offers, in other words, is not genuine political competition but the theatre of competition: all the ritual without any of the uncertainty.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">This distinction matters precisely because the regime needs the election to <em>look</em> like a contest in order for it to function as legitimacy. The ballot box is not an instrument of democratic choice; it is an instrument of democratic <em>presentation</em>. It tells Ethiopians, and more crucially, tells the international community, that the state consults its citizens, that power is subject to their ratification, that the system has not abandoned the forms of democratic governance even if it has abandoned their substance.</p>



<hr class="wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity"/>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">The Three Structural Obstacles: Why This Election Cannot Succeed Even on Its Own Terms</h2>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">If one accepts the regime’s implicit framing that the goal is to hold an election that appears credible, inclusive, and national then the enterprise fails before it begins. Three interlocking structural problems ensure this failure.</p>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">1. The Representation Gap: When Democracy Becomes Mathematically Impossible</h3>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The DW reporting on the 2026 election identifies something that should be more prominent in the international commentary: millions of Ethiopians will remain unrepresented. This is not new. The 2021 elections suffered from the same affliction. Several regions face structural issues that leave parliamentary seats vacant, raising concerns, amply justified, that these representation gaps will repeat.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">What does this mean in practical terms? It means that the parliament elected on June 1st will not, in fact, represent the entire nation. It will be structurally unrepresentative from the moment the speaker takes the gavel. The chamber itself will contain absences literal empty seats that correspond to regions deemed too unstable, too contested, or too hostile to the regime for elections to occur.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">This is not a marginal issue. It is a fundamental delegitimisation of the electoral enterprise. A parliament cannot claim to be the embodiment of national will if entire regions are absent from its deliberations. Yet the regime has calculated that maintaining power in a partially representative chamber is preferable to either allowing genuine competition or expanding the franchise to include populations that might vote differently.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The acceptance of this outcome reveals something important about regime priorities: governing consent matters less than governing <em>control</em>. A fully representative parliament might challenge the executive’s authority. A partially representative one cannot.</p>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">2. The Security Collapse: 46 Districts and the Physical Impossibility of a National Election</h3>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Days before the June 1st vote, the National Election Board made an announcement that should have commanded far more international attention than it did. Elections would not take place in 46 electoral districts across the conflict-affected Amhara and Tigray regions. Eight districts in northwestern Amhara would be suspended due to clashes between militia groups and the army. Thirty-eight districts in Tigray would see no voting due to tensions between the federal government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Let that sink in. Nearly a tenth of the country’s electoral districts will not hold elections. This is not a minor logistical problem; it is an admission that the federal state does not control its own territory. The National Election Board is not merely postponing voting in these areas, it is acknowledging that the state cannot project sufficient authority to conduct even a basic democratic procedure.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">This is particularly acute in Tigray, where the war between 2020 and 2022 claimed at least 600,000 lives. A peace agreement was signed in 2022, but the underlying tensions remain volatile. The TPLF, the dominant party in Tigray, was banned as a political party in 2025 following the war. Yet the party’s old guard has reinstituted the regional parliament and elected TPLF leader Debretsion Gebremichael as its speaker—a power play that directly threatens the very peace agreement the regime claims to be administering.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">In Amhara, Fano militias are engaged in active conflict with the Ethiopian National Defense Forces. These are not hypothetical threats; they control key cities and roads. The state’s inability to secure these territories means voting simply cannot occur. Some militia groups have issued explicit statements opposing the elections, and analysts assess that they may attempt to disrupt the electoral process in areas where they maintain control.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">What emerges from this landscape is stark: Ethiopia does not have a unified national territory within which a genuinely national election can occur. The state is fragmenting in real time, and the June 1st election is occurring within the shell of state authority rather than as an expression of it.</p>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">3. The Political Competition Deficit: Fragmentation by Design</h3>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The third structural obstacle is perhaps the most deliberate. Opposition parties are either highly fragmented or systematically sidelined. Voters have very few real alternatives, and the parties themselves are trapped in what might be called an “electoral authoritarianism bind.”</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Consider the situation of the Oromo Federalist Congress, one of the primary opposition parties. As Professor Merera Gudina explained in his recent interview with Addis Standard, the OFC is participating in the 2026 election with a grand total of <em>six candidates</em>. This is not a strategic choice born of optimism about electoral prospects. It is a capitulation to legal constraint: Ethiopian law prevents a party from boycotting two consecutive elections without facing deregistration.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The OFC thus faces an impossible choice: participate nominally (and thereby lend legitimacy to an election designed to exclude them) or boycott (and thereby lose their legal status). They have chosen the former, accepting that participation with six candidates amounts to little more than a fig leaf. They get to say they contested the election; the regime gets to say it welcomed their participation. The outcome is predetermined either way.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The Coalition for the Unity of Ethiopia, an alliance of several opposition parties, has taken a different tack. Rather than accept the participation-or-deregistration binary, they have conditioned their participation on structural changes: an end to the war, the release of political prisoners, greater political freedom, and talks with the genuine opposition. These are, of course, precisely the conditions the regime will not meet. The CEU is thus engaged in conditional participation—appearing to contest the election while knowing their conditions will not be satisfied.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">What this fragmentation means is that voters are presented with either the ruling Prosperity Party or a collection of opposition parties that range from nominally present (OFC with six candidates) to conditionally participating (CEU, hedging their bets) to effectively sidelined. There is no genuine alternative power centre, no competing vision of governance that could challenge the ruling party’s monopoly.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">This is not accidental. It is the product of deliberate regime strategy. Over the past six years, the Prosperity Party has tightened its control over the electoral space through a combination of legal restrictions (the deregistration threat), security pressure (harassment of opposition figures), and control of state institutions (the National Election Board, which the regime effectively dominates).</p>



<hr class="wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity"/>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">The Regional Fragmentation: Where Guns Trump Ballots</h2>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">But electoral obstacles, representation gaps, and political fragmentation tell only part of the story. Beneath and beyond the formal electoral structure lies a deeper reality: Ethiopia is fragmenting along regional and factional lines that the June 1st election cannot address and will likely exacerbate.</p>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Tigray: A Banned Party Governing a Region</h3>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The TPLF situation encapsulates the paradox. The party is banned from running candidates in the national election. Yet it exercises de facto control over the Tigray region, having reinstated its regional parliament and reasserted its authority after the 2022 peace agreement nominally sidelined it.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">This is not a stable equilibrium. The federal government refuses to recognise the TPLF’s re-assertion of regional authority, viewing it as a violation of the peace agreement. The TPLF views its restitution as the democratic restoration of its authority—after all, it is the dominant political force in Tigray. The tension between these two positions remains unresolved, and analysts assess that TPLF efforts to regain full control of the region could trigger renewed war with the federal government.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The June 1st election will not resolve this tension. Indeed, it will likely harden it. Voting will not occur in 38 districts in Tigray. The TPLF will be absent from parliament. The federal government will interpret the election as a mandate to marginalise the TPLF further. And in Tigray itself, the population will have been excluded from both the regional and national elections, deepening the sense that the state does not regard them as fully part of the political community.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">This is not a local problem. Tigray is a region of over 5 million people. The unresolved relationship between the TPLF and the federal government remains one of the most volatile fault lines in Ethiopian politics.</p>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Amhara: Militia Control and the Erosion of State Authority</h3>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">In Amhara, the situation is somewhat different but equally alarming. Fano militias control key cities and roads. They are engaged in active combat with the Ethiopian National Defense Forces. Some have issued explicit statements opposing the elections.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Unlike in Tigray, where the issue is a banned party reasserting control, in Amhara the issue is non-state armed groups operating outside any legal or electoral framework at all. They do not seek parliamentary representation (or have sought it and been excluded). They exist in a state of open conflict with the federal authority.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The eight electoral districts suspended in Amhara are suspended precisely because they are in areas where Fano controls territory. The state cannot project sufficient authority to conduct voting, let alone govern once the votes are cast. This represents not merely a failure of the electoral system but a failure of the state’s monopoly on legitimate force.</p>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Oromia: The OLA Dimension</h3>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Similarly, the Oromo Liberation Army remains active in Oromia, engaged in conflict with the ENDF. While the OLA is not mentioned as prominently in the DW reporting as Fano or the TPLF, their presence underscores the broader picture: across multiple regions, armed groups operate outside the framework of the June 1st election. The ballot box is irrelevant to them because they do not recognise the state’s legitimacy or authority.</p>



<hr class="wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity"/>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">The Economic Subtext: Why the Election Happens Even Though It Cannot Work</h2>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">All of this—the structural obstacles, the regional fragmentation, the opposition’s bind—occurs within a context of severe economic crisis. High inflation persists. Currency collapse is ongoing. Youth unemployment is driving mass emigration. The promised dividend of Abiy’s early reforms—economic growth that would bring stability and development—has failed to materialise.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">This context is crucial because it explains why the regime insists on holding an election it cannot lose. The election is not designed to solve economic problems or to gather genuine input on policy. It is designed to generate a mandate—a 90 per cent majority that the regime can cite when imposing unpopular economic measures, when requesting continued military expenditure, when fending off donor pressure, when justifying continued restrictions on opposition activity.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The election, in other words, is a response to economic crisis, not a solution to it. It is a way of converting dissatisfaction into legitimacy, of transforming grievance into mandated governance.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Ordinary Ethiopians are acutely aware of this disconnect. A 26-year-old voter cited in the DW reporting captured it succinctly: “Elections are always good,” he said, but “too little attention is being paid to the problems of people struggling with inflation.” The young man expressed deep concern about the exodus of Ethiopians to other countries due to lack of jobs—a hemorrhaging of human capital that no electoral outcome on June 1st will reverse.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The regime’s response to economic crisis is thus not policy reform but democratic theatre. The ballot box becomes a way of managing dissent, of channelling grievance into an orderly process that produces predetermined outcomes.</p>



<hr class="wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity"/>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">The Four Futures: Where Does Ethiopia Go From Here?</h2>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Professor Merera Gudina, in his Addis Standard interview, outlined four possible futures for Ethiopia, each plausible within the current political and security context.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The first is <strong>continued crisis</strong>: shrinking political space, rising cost of living, youth unemployment, and chronic instability. This is perhaps the most likely scenario if nothing changes structurally. The June 1st election would do nothing to address these underlying drivers.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The second is <strong>national and international pressure</strong> the scenario in which the ruling party comes to its senses and sits down for genuine, all-inclusive political dialogue to build national consensus. This requires a fundamental shift in regime strategy, a willingness to share power in something more than the rhetorical sense. It seems unlikely, though not impossible.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The third is <strong>uncoordinated insurgency</strong>: various disjointed armed factions simultaneously push into the capital, creating a chaotic breakdown similar to Syria. The proliferation of armed groups operating outside state control, Fano in Amhara, OLA in Oromia, a potentially re-mobilised TPLF in Tigray, makes this scenario less hypothetical than it might appear.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The fourth is <strong>total disintegration</strong>: if the state tries to maintain unity purely through military force without political compromise, the country risks fracturing completely, as the Soviet Union did. This is the nightmare scenario, but it becomes more plausible as regional authority erodes and the state’s capacity to project power diminishes.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Which scenario is most likely? That depends partly on decisions the regime has not yet made, and partly on the behaviour of actors outside the regime’s control. But the June 1st election does not fundamentally alter the probability of any of these outcomes. If anything, by foreclosing the possibility of negotiated settlement and legitimising a 90 per cent majority for continued exclusion, the election may accelerate the timeline toward one of the less benign scenarios.</p>



<hr class="wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity"/>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">The International Dimension: Legitimacy for Whom?</h2>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">It is worth noting that the regime’s insistence on holding the election, despite its manifest inability to meet the basic standards of democratic procedure, reflects partly its need for international legitimacy. The election is being conducted partly <em>for</em> the international audience for donors, for the United Nations, for regional partners.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The United Arab Emirates, Ethiopia’s strongest ally in the Gulf, has been a particularly important source of support. Yet the UAE itself has been accused by UN experts and international observers of covertly supplying weapons, drones, and money to the paramilitary RSF militia in Sudan, which is engaged in a devastating conflict. This creates a troubling dynamic: Ethiopia is seeking legitimacy from an external power that is itself fuelling regional destabilisation.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The broader regional context growing tensions between Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Sudan, all shadowed by proxy dynamics and external intervention means that the June 1st election occurs not in isolation but within a destabilising regional matrix. Abiy’s ability to consolidate power domestically is partly dependent on maintaining external validation, even as external actors pursue their own regional agendas that may not align with Ethiopian stability.</p>



<hr class="wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity"/>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">What Credibility Requires, and Why This Election Cannot Achieve It</h2>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The DW video reporting on the 2026 election posed a straightforward question: can this election be considered credible, inclusive, and truly national?</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The answer, based on the evidence, is no. Not because of administrative incompetence or marginal failures, but because the structural conditions for a credible, inclusive, and national election do not exist.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">A credible election requires genuine political competition. This election offers only the semblance of competition, with opposition parties either reducing their participation to symbolic gesture (OFC, six candidates) or hedging their bets with conditions they know will not be met (CEU). The 90 per cent majority is predictable precisely because alternatives are foreclosed.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">An inclusive election requires that all regions participate and that all populations have representation. This election will exclude 46 districts and leave entire regions with vacant parliamentary seats. Millions of Ethiopians will have no say in who governs them.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">A national election requires that the state exercise sufficient authority to conduct voting across its territory. Ethiopia does not currently exercise this authority. Armed groups operating outside the electoral framework control significant territory. The state is fragmenting, not consolidating.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">To be balanced: one can understand the regime’s logic in proceeding with the election despite these obstacles. They argue that it is better to hold an election, however imperfect, than to abandon the democratic form entirely. They point to the formal procedures, the registered parties, the electoral board’s independence (which, to be fair, operates with some degree of autonomy even if the regime dominates its appointment). They note that voters are participating, that interest is evident.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">But procedural legitimacy is not the same as democratic legitimacy. An election can follow proper procedures while still representing a diminishment of democratic practice. And an election can be formally held while fundamental conditions for democratic choice remain absent.</p>



<hr class="wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity"/>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">After June 1st: The Ritual Ends, the Real Contestation Begins</h2>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Perhaps the most important thing to understand about the June 1st election is that it does not settle anything. It postpones. It ritualises. It generates a mandate that the regime can cite for the next five years. But it does not address the underlying drivers of contestation: regional fragmentation, economic crisis, the presence of armed groups operating outside state control, the unresolved status of the TPLF, the delegitimisation of opposition parties.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">When the votes are tallied and Abiy claims his 90 per cent majority, the real contestation will resume. Fano will continue operating in Amhara. The TPLF will continue reasserting authority in Tigray. The OLA will remain active in Oromia. Economic conditions will continue to deteriorate. Young Ethiopians will continue emigrating. The regime will cite the election as a mandate to continue present policies, and opposition voices will grow more marginalised.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The election is not the beginning of a new political cycle. It is the culmination of one cycle and the prelude to another one in which elections matter even less and in which the real contestation occurs in the spaces where the ballot box has no relevance.</p>



<hr class="wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity"/>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Conclusion: The Impossibility of Democratic Ritual in a Fragmenting State</h2>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">Ethiopia is attempting something that has become increasingly difficult to sustain: the maintenance of electoral rituals in a state that is fragmenting along regional and factional lines. The June 1st election will proceed. The Prosperity Party will win. Abiy will be re-elected with a supermajority. And none of this will resolve the fundamental challenges facing the state.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The election is not a failure of democracy. It is the operation of electoral authoritarianism: the use of elections not as a mechanism for democratic choice but as a mechanism for democratic <em>presentation</em>. It is credible to international audiences that do not look too closely. It is inclusive of the parties the regime deems acceptable. It is national in symbolic scope, even if practical execution falls far short.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">But a state that relies on electoral ritual rather than democratic substance is building on unstable ground. The ballot box cannot generate legitimacy where the underlying conditions for democratic governance do not exist. And in Ethiopia’s case, those conditions. genuine political competition, territorial control by the state, a unified national community willing to accept the outcomes of democratic processes are increasingly absent.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The real question is not whether the 2026 election will change Ethiopia’s trajectory. It will not. The real question is whether the election, by foreclosing legitimate channels of political contestation and legitimising continued exclusion, will accelerate the movement toward one of Professor Merera’s less benign futures. On the evidence available, one cannot rule that out.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">The ritual before the storm, in other words, may be hastening the storm’s arrival.</p>



<hr class="wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity"/>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><em>The Ethiopian Tribune is an independent publication focused on Horn of Africa geopolitics, democratic accountability, and human rights. This analysis draws on interviews conducted by Addis Standard (Professor Merera Gudina), reporting by Deutsche Welle (Martina Schwikowski), and assessments by international analysts including Kjetil Tronvoll and Martin Plaut.</em></p>


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		<title>ባለው አስከፊ ሁኔታ ስለምርጫ ማሰብ አይቻልም</title>
		<link>https://ethiopiantribune.com/2026/05/given-the-dire-situation-thinking-about-elections-is-impossible/</link>
					<comments>https://ethiopiantribune.com/2026/05/given-the-dire-situation-thinking-about-elections-is-impossible/#respond</comments>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Ethiopian Tribune editor]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 29 May 2026 09:53:26 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[ማህበራዊ ጉዳዮች]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ዘገባዎች በአማርኛ]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[#EthiopianTribune]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[ኢትዮጵያ]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ኢትዮጵያን ትሪቢውን]]></category>
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					<description><![CDATA[Instead of resolving these severe crises, it is deeply disheartening and shameful to hear talk of a sham election.]]></description>
			
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<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><br>በቀለ ገሠሠ (ዶ/ር)</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong><mark style="background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);color:#cf2e2e" class="has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color">፩ኛ/ መንደርደሪያ፣</mark></strong></p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">ብዙ ዓለማት ዞረን ዐይተናል። እግዚአብሔር አምላካችን ኢትዮጵያን የፈጠራት ሁሉን ነገር አሟልቶ ነው። የምድሯን ስፋትና ለምነት፣ የወንዞችና ሃይቆችዋን ብዛት፣ ንጹህ አየር፣ ደጋግ ህዝብ፣ ወዘተ ስንመለከት እጅግ በጣም ሃብታም አገር መሆን ነበረባት።</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">አልታደለችምና ዛሬ የምትገኝበትን የባሰ ሁኔታ ስንመለከት እጅግ በጣም እናዝናለን።</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">ጎሣን ከጎሳ ያጋጫሉ። የአማራ ህዝብ የትግሬ፣ የኦሮሞና የማንም ጎሣ ጠላት ሆኖ አያውቅም። ደጋግና እንግዳ ተቀባይ ህዝብ ነው። በማንኛውም ሥርዓት ሥር ጥሮ ግሮ ከመኖር በስተቀር ያገኘው አንዳችም ልዩ ጥቅም አልነበረም። ዛሬ ግን በገዛ ቀዬው እንኳን እንዳይኖር፣ አርሶ ነግዶ ልጆቹን እንዳያሳድግ ዘመቻ ሲካሄድበት ይታያል። ትምህርት ቤቶች ይዘጋሉ፣ የእምነት ቦታዎች ይደፈራሉ።</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">እነዚህን ከባድ ችግሮች እንደመቅረፍ ፈንታ ስለውሸት ምርጫ ሲወራ መስማት በጣም ያሳዝናል፣ ያሳፍራል።</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong><mark style="background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);color:#cf2e2e" class="has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color">፪ኛ/ የነፃ ምርጫ አስፈላጊነት፣</mark></strong></p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">የኢትዮጵያ ህዝብ ነፃ&nbsp; አገራዊ ምርጫን ሲጠማ ነው የኖረው።</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">የዲሞክራሲ ሥርዓት ምሶሶ ነፃ ምርጫ እንደሆነ ግልፅ ነው። ነፃ ምርጫ ከሌለ አምባገነንነት ይንሰራፋል፣ በውድ አገራችን ሲፈጸሙ የቆዮት አረመኔያዊ ጭፍጨፋዎች፣ ማፈናቀሎችና ዝርፊያዎች በዲሞክራሲ ሥርዓት እጦት ምክንያት ነው።&nbsp;</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong><mark style="background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);color:#cf2e2e" class="has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color">፫ኛ/ የነፃ ምርጫ ቅድመ ሁኔታዎች፣</mark></strong></p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">እውነተኛ ምርጫ ለማካሄድ፣</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">ሰላም ምስፈን አለበት፣<br />ነፃ የምርጫ ቦርድ መቋቋም አለበት፣<br />በየምርጫው ኬላ ላይ ገለልተኞች የሆኑ አገራዊና የውጪ ታዛቢዎች መገኘት አለባቸው።</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph"><strong><mark style="background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);color:#cf2e2e" class="has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color">፬ኛ/ አሁን ምን መደረግ አለበት?</mark></strong></p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">መጀመሪያ ሁሉ-አቀፍ የሽግግር መንግሥት መቋቋም አለበት። ከፋፋዩ ሕገመንግሥ መለወጥ አለበት።<br />ወንጀለኞች ለፍርድ መቅረብ አለባቸው።</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">ከዚያ በኃላ ነፃና ፍትሐዊ ምርጫ ማካሄድ፣<br>ሰላም ማውረድና<br>እድገት ላይ ማተኮር ይኖርብናል።<br>እግዚአብሔር ይርዳን፣ ይታረቀን።</p>



<p class="p1 wp-block-paragraph"><strong><mark style="background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);color:#cf2e2e" class="has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color">Given the Dire Situation, Thinking About Elections is Impossible</mark></strong></p>



<p class="p2 wp-block-paragraph">By Bekele Gessesse (PhD)</p>



<p class="p3 wp-block-paragraph"><strong><mark style="background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);color:#cf2e2e" class="has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color">1. Introduction</mark></strong></p>



<p class="p4 wp-block-paragraph">We have travelled and seen much of the world. Almighty God created Ethiopia with everything she could possibly need. When looking at the vastness and fertility of her land, the abundance of her rivers and lakes, her clean air, and her generous people, she should have been an incredibly wealthy nation.</p>



<p class="p5 wp-block-paragraph">Unfortunately, she has been unlucky, and it is deeply saddening to witness the worsening conditions she finds herself in today.</p>



<p class="p5 wp-block-paragraph">They pit one ethnic group against another. The Amhara people have never been enemies of the Tigrayan, Oromo, or any other ethnic community. They are a kind and hospitable people. Under any regime, they have never received any special privileges, asking for nothing more than to live by working hard and honestly. Today, however, we see a campaign being waged against them, preventing them from even living in their own localities, or farming and trading to raise their children. Schools are being closed, and places of worship are being desecrated.</p>



<p class="p5 wp-block-paragraph">Instead of resolving these severe crises, it is deeply disheartening and shameful to hear talk of a sham election.</p>



<p class="p3 wp-block-paragraph"><strong><mark style="background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);color:#cf2e2e" class="has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color">2. The Necessity of Free Elections</mark></strong></p>



<p class="p4 wp-block-paragraph">The people of Ethiopia have long thirsted for a free national election.</p>



<p class="p5 wp-block-paragraph">It is clear that free elections are the cornerstone of a democratic system. In the absence of free elections, tyranny flourishes. The barbaric massacres, displacements, and plundering that have been carried out in our beloved country are the direct result of a lack of a democratic system.</p>



<p class="p3 wp-block-paragraph"><strong><mark style="background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);color:#cf2e2e" class="has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color">3. Preconditions for Free Elections</mark></strong></p>



<p class="p4 wp-block-paragraph">To conduct a genuine election:</p>



<p class="p6 wp-block-paragraph">&nbsp;Peace must be established across the country.</p>



<p class="p7 wp-block-paragraph">&nbsp;An independent electoral board must be set up.</p>



<p class="p7 wp-block-paragraph">&nbsp;Neutral national and international observers must be present at every polling station.</p>



<p class="p3 wp-block-paragraph"><strong><mark style="background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);color:#cf2e2e" class="has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color">4. What Must Be Done Now?</mark></strong></p>



<p class="p4 wp-block-paragraph">First and foremost, an all-inclusive transitional government must be established. The divisive constitution must be amended, and criminals must be brought to justice.</p>



<p class="p5 wp-block-paragraph">Only after these steps are taken can we: Conduct a free and fair election, Restore peace, and Focus on development.</p>



<p class="wp-block-paragraph">May God help us and grant us His reconciliation.</p>


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		<title>The Geography of Delusion: Why Abiy Ahmed&#8217;s Imperial Vision Threatens Ethiopia, Not Saves It</title>
		<link>https://ethiopiantribune.com/2026/05/why-abiy-ahmeds-imperial-vision-threatens-ethiopia-not-saves-it/</link>
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		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Ethiopian Tribune editor]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 29 May 2026 09:30:51 +0000</pubDate>
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					<description><![CDATA[By Sewasew Teklemariam When The Economist warns that a prime minister&#8217;s &#8220;ambitions threaten both his...]]></description>
			
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<p class="s5 wp-block-paragraph"><em>By Sewasew Teklemariam </em></p>



<p class="s7 wp-block-paragraph">When The Economist warns that a prime minister&#8217;s &#8220;ambitions threaten both his country and the Horn of Africa,&#8221; it is customary to pause. The weekly publication does not deal in exaggeration. Yet what strikes one most acutely is not the warning itself, but the speed with which international analysis has converged on a verdict: Abiy Ahmed&#8217;s imperial gambit is not merely dangerous, it is economically irrational, strategically indefensible, and increasingly divorced from the operational realities of statecraft in a region where power remains deeply constrained by geography, law, and the interests of very capable neighbours.</p>



<p class="s7 wp-block-paragraph">The Prime Minister has, for nearly two years now, positioned Red Sea access as an &#8220;existential matter,&#8221; declaring Ethiopia &#8220;a million per cent certain&#8221; it would not remain landlocked. In his February address to Parliament, he spoke of an organic, natural separation between Ethiopia and the Red Sea that must be corrected. The rhetoric has escalated: a senior military official suggested that a population of 130 million simply grants Ethiopia the right to take what it needs from neighbours possessing far smaller populations. War, in the coded language of Addis Ababa, has become diplomatic negotiation.</p>



<p class="s7 wp-block-paragraph">But beneath the grandiose framing lies a more elementary problem. Abiy is gambling with the legitimacy of his regime and the future of his country on a strategic premise that does not survive basic economic or geopolitical scrutiny.</p>



<p class="s9 wp-block-paragraph"><strong><mark style="background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);color:#cf2e2e" class="has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color">The Economic Absurdity</mark></strong></p>



<p class="s7 wp-block-paragraph">Start with the basics. Ethiopia&#8217;s economy is in freefall. The currency has collapsed. The Eurobond market is closed. Foreign exchange reserves are depleted. The government faces mounting pressure to defend the Ethiopian birr, placate an electorate experiencing currency devaluation as a daily assault on purchasing power, and fund security operations across multiple fronts. In such circumstances, a rational leadership pursues diplomatic breakthroughs that deliver measurable economic gains at manageable political cost.</p>



<figure class="wp-block-pullquote"><blockquote><p><em><mark style="background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);color:#cf2e2e" class="has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color">A population of 150 million cannot live in a geographic prison. Therefore, we must spend military resources we do not possess to seize territory from our neighbours.</mark></em></p><cite><em><mark style="background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);color:#0693e3" class="has-inline-color has-vivid-cyan-blue-color">The logic of Abiy Ahmed&#8217;s Red Sea strategy, simplified</mark></em></cite></blockquote></figure>



<p class="s7 wp-block-paragraph">Instead, Abiy has chosen the inverse. He has signed a Memorandum of Understanding with Somaliland a breakaway region whose independence violates African Union doctrine and infuriates Somalia, a theoretically important partner. In exchange for diplomatic recognition of Somaliland (fundamentally destabilising to East African state order), Ethiopia would receive a 20-kilometre strip of coastline on a fifty-year lease. This is not a port; it is a liability. The arrangement is so transparently against Somalia&#8217;s interests that it has triggered a profound regional crisis, with Kenya and Djibouti now forced to choose between their relationship with Addis Ababa and their relationship with Mogadishu.</p>



<p class="s7 wp-block-paragraph">The Somaliland gambit has collapsed in real time. Somalia, far from capitulating, has moved closer to Kenya, Egypt, and Eritrea precisely the coalition Abiy&#8217;s strategy was ostensibly designed to prevent. And why would it succeed? A breakaway region with no international recognition cannot offer what Ethiopia truly needs: stable, affordable, permanent access to a major port through a framework of law and interstate comity. Yet the Somaliland episode cost Abiy his diplomatic equilibrium in the Horn and poisoned relationships he had spent years cultivating.</p>



<p class="s7 wp-block-paragraph">The mathematics of Red Sea access are unforgiving. Djibouti handles roughly 70 per cent of Ethiopia&#8217;s trade. Kenya&#8217;s port of Mombasa could absorb substantially more. Port fees have fallen as competition has intensified. The notion that Ethiopia faces an existential constraint on maritime access, absent war, is not merely overstated—it is false.</p>



<p class="s9 wp-block-paragraph"><strong><mark style="background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);color:#cf2e2e" class="has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color">The Strategic Trap</mark></strong></p>



<p class="s7 wp-block-paragraph">But the economic irrationality pales beside the strategic one. Abiy appears to believe that the combination of Ethiopia&#8217;s population, military capability, and geographic position grants him the prerogative to forcibly alter borders in the Horn of Africa. This is precisely the doctrine that empowered Putin in Crimea and Netanyahu in Gaza: that the strong may reshape the map at the expense of the weak, provided the international order is sufficiently distracted to avert its gaze.</p>



<p class="s7 wp-block-paragraph">The problem is that the Horn of Africa is not a nullity. It is a region of considerable strategic consequence a crossing point between Asia and Africa, a chokehold on global maritime commerce, and a theatre where multiple great powers have invested heavily. When Abiy declared in October 2025 that &#8220;no one would come to Eritrea&#8217;s aid if war breaks out,&#8221; he was making an assumption not a statement of fact. Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and the United States all have profound interests in Red Sea stability. None of them wishes to witness a destabilising war fought over a territorial claim framed in language that evokes historical claims that, if generalised, would blow apart the entire state system of Africa.</p>



<figure class="wp-block-pullquote"><blockquote><p><mark style="background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);color:#cf2e2e" class="has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color">Abiy is increasingly sounding and acting like another world leader whose imperial ambitions and aggression have already caused immense pain and suffering: Russia&#8217;s President Vladimir Putin.</mark></p><cite><mark style="background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);color:#0693e3" class="has-inline-color has-vivid-cyan-blue-color">Tafi Mhaka, Al Jazeera</mark></cite></blockquote></figure>



<p class="s13 wp-block-paragraph"></p>



<p class="s7 wp-block-paragraph">Eritrea&#8217;s response has been swift and confident. Yemane Gebre Meskel, the Information Minister, dismissed Abiy&#8217;s threats as &#8220;incessant saber-rattling&#8221; from a leader pursuing not peace but &#8220;duplication of verbal gymnastics.&#8221; The language is pointed: Eritrea, having fought a brutal war for independence, is not a territory to be picked at leisure. Its defensive posture is formidable. Its relationships with regional powers particularly Egypt and Saudi Arabia are solid. And crucially, Eritrea can rely on international law in ways that Ethiopia cannot. The 2002 Eritrea–Ethiopia Boundary Commission ruling is binding. Eritrea&#8217;s territorial waters are internationally recognised. The jurisprudence is against Abiy.</p>



<p class="s7 wp-block-paragraph">The Prime Minister has begun warning, in closed-door meetings with his Prosperity Party, that Ethiopia might need to take &#8220;severe measures&#8221; against Eritrea if diplomatic means fail. He has referenced Gaza as a potential model for resolving contested territory. This is the language of a leader who has increasingly internalised a doctrine of force not as a last resort, but as a legitimate instrument of state policy. It is a language that alarms every regional actor capable of constraining Ethiopian behaviour.</p>



<p class="s9 wp-block-paragraph"><strong><mark style="background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);color:#cf2e2e" class="has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color">The Domestic Contradiction</mark></strong></p>



<p class="s7 wp-block-paragraph">There is a further contradiction, perhaps more ominous than the others. Abiy has framed the Red Sea quest as a matter of national unification. In practice, it has become a vehicle for centralisation of power without accountability. The security apparatus has expanded. Ethnic tensions, which the rapprochement with Eritrea initially seemed to ameliorate, have been revived and instrumentalised. The upcoming election is being overseen by a &#8220;task force&#8221; reporting directly to the Prime Minister, not to constitutional authorities. The federal government&#8217;s spending on state subsidies has dropped from 60 per cent of the budget in 2018 to 20 per cent in 2026 a radical reconfiguration of federalism that concentrates resources and authority in Addis Ababa.</p>



<p class="s7 wp-block-paragraph">Abiy has cultivated the perception that sea access is the key to Ethiopia&#8217;s prosperity and greatness. In reality, it has become a smokescreen. The people of Ethiopia face currency collapse, fuel shortages, unemployment, and a security environment corrupted by emergency governance. The regime has instrumentalised nationalist sentiment the idea that sea access is Ethiopia&#8217;s &#8220;natural right&#8221; to justify the accumulation of power without the constraints of federalism, competitive elections, or institutional checks.</p>



<p class="s7 wp-block-paragraph">A senior analyst of Horn of Africa politics observed recently that &#8220;states facing internal division rarely succeed in aggressive foreign policies; the domestic centre must hold for any peripheral expansion to be credible.&#8221; Ethiopia&#8217;s centre, by contrast, is fragmenting. The Tigray conflict left perhaps 600,000 dead. The Oromo Liberation Front remains in the field. The Benishangul-Gumuz region faces systematic insecurity. Regional governments have been stripped of fiscal autonomy. In such conditions, the prospect of a major war with Eritrea would not vindicate Ethiopian greatness—it would expose profound weakness.</p>



<p class="s9 wp-block-paragraph"><strong><mark style="background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);color:#cf2e2e" class="has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color">The Voices from Beyond</mark></strong></p>



<p class="s7 wp-block-paragraph">What are the international commentators saying? The verdict has been remarkably consistent. The Economist frames Abiy&#8217;s vision as autocratic centralisation masquerading as national renewal. Al Jazeera has compared his rhetoric and methods to those of other aggressively expansionist leaders. Democracy in Africa has warned that Ethiopia&#8217;s &#8220;imperial ambitions are making the Horn of Africa chronically dangerous.&#8221; The observer research community has flagged a pattern: Abiy voices his commitment to peaceful resolution, whilst military media outlets and senior generals speak the language of inevitable war.</p>



<p class="s7 wp-block-paragraph">Egypt&#8217;s response has been characteristically ambiguous. In February 2026, Cairo reportedly offered to mediate Ethiopian access to Red Sea ports in exchange for concessions on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. Within days, Egyptian officials denied the offer entirely. The gesture, even in its denial, conveyed a message: the international community recognises the strategic reality: Ethiopia cannot force its way to the sea, but it can access ports through negotiation. The supposed &#8220;existential&#8221; constraint is a political fiction.</p>



<p class="s7 wp-block-paragraph">Regional analysts have been equally damning. Dr Suleiman Walhad observed that &#8220;history has shown repeatedly that states facing internal division rarely succeed in aggressive foreign policies.&#8221; The Red Sea strategy, he argued, is &#8220;stillborn&#8221; destined to fail because Ethiopia lacks the domestic cohesion necessary for a credible imperial project. Ethiopia is not the Ottoman Empire or the Austro-Hungarian imperium. It is a multinational, deeply federalised state with a history of ethnic tensions, weak institutions, and an economy in distress.</p>



<p class="s9 wp-block-paragraph"><strong><mark style="background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);color:#cf2e2e" class="has-inline-color has-vivid-red-color">The Reckoning Ahead</mark></strong></p>



<p class="s7 wp-block-paragraph">What, then, is driving Abiy&#8217;s increasingly reckless positioning? Part of it is personal: the Prime Minister is seeking to build a legacy. He entered office as a reformer, declared &#8220;Never again&#8221; about ethnic conflict, and received the Nobel Peace Prize a prize that now sits uncomfortably beside a record of internal repression and regional aggression. The Red Sea gambit offers a chance to reframe himself as a great power builder, a leader who restored Ethiopia to its rightful place on the world stage.</p>



<p class="s7 wp-block-paragraph">Part of it is structural: the Ethiopian regime depends on cultivating a sense of perpetual nationalist grievance. The idea that Ethiopia is &#8220;imprisoned&#8221; geographically, that it has been cheated of its natural inheritance, that only a strong leader can correct historical injustices this narrative justifies emergency governance and defers accountability for economic failure.</p>



<p class="s7 wp-block-paragraph">And part of it is psychological: Abiy appears to have come to believe his own mythology. He has surrounded himself with military officials and party loyalists who tell him what he wishes to hear. Contradiction between his public commitment to peaceful resolution and military preparations for war, between his anti-authoritarian reputation and his centralisation of power, between his claims of economic visionary leadership and the currency collapse happening in real time, no longer registers as a problem to be resolved. It is simply the price of greatness.</p>



<p class="s7 wp-block-paragraph">But greatness purchased through the destabilisation of the Horn of Africa, the alienation of neighbouring states, and the further concentration of power at home is not greatness at all. It is a familiar tragedy: a leader of initial promise succumbing to the delusions of power, wagering his country&#8217;s future on a strategic fantasy, and discovering—too late—that geography and law are more durable than rhetoric and will.</p>



<p class="s7 wp-block-paragraph">The international community is watching. So, increasingly, are Ethiopians.</p>



<p class="s14 wp-block-paragraph">&nbsp;</p>


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