Ethio-Eritrea in 2025 will renew no war but no peace bilateral policy.

The possibility of a renewed Ethiopia–Eritrea conflict in 2025 remains speculative. While no one can predict the future with certainty, analysts have outlined several conditions and trigger events that—if they were to coincide—could spark a military confrontation between the two nations. Below is one hypothetical scenario drawn from current trends and expert assessments:

Background of Long-Standing Tensions

Both Ethiopia and Eritrea have a fraught history marked by past wars (such as the 1998–2000 border conflict) and decades of “no war, but no peace” afterward. Although the 2018 peace initiative (and the subsequent Joint Declaration of Peace and Friendship) brought hope of reconciliation, unresolved issues remain. These include:

   •   Border Disputes and Access to the Sea: Ethiopia’s enduring desire for direct access to the Red Sea—an aspiration linked to its economic and strategic vulnerabilities—continues to create friction. In recent public statements, Ethiopia’s Prime Minister has hinted that if diplomatic solutions fail, military options could be considered to secure access to port facilities, a notion that deeply alarms Eritrea.

   •   Mutual Distrust and Military Posturing: Despite past rapprochement, both sides continue to engage in provocative military maneuvers along the border. Eritrean forces have maintained a presence in disputed areas, while Ethiopia’s military has been modernizing and repositioning in response to both internal conflicts and regional rivalries.

   •   Regional Alliances and External Influences: Recent agreements—such as the trilateral security cooperation between Egypt, Eritrea, and Somalia—demonstrate that some of Ethiopia’s neighbors are prepared to counterbalance its ambitions. Such alliances could further isolate Ethiopia and heighten the risk of miscalculation.

A Hypothetical Scenario for 2025

1. Escalation of Border Incidents

A small-scale military incident—perhaps an accidental clash during routine patrols along a poorly demarcated section of the border (such as around the disputed town of Badme)—could rapidly escalate. If either side misinterprets the incident as deliberate aggression, this could serve as a spark for full-scale mobilization.

2. Diplomatic Breakdown and Provocative Rhetoric

Amidst mounting domestic pressure and unresolved internal conflicts (such as those in the Amhara and Oromia regions), leaders on both sides might adopt increasingly belligerent rhetoric. For Ethiopia, frustration over economic hardships and the need to assert its claim for a Red Sea port could prompt a departure from cautious diplomacy. Simultaneously, Eritrea’s leadership, unwilling to tolerate what it sees as Ethiopia’s encroachment on its sovereign territory, could pre-emptively mobilize its forces.

3. Regional Involvement and Alliance Dynamics

External actors could also play a role. If Egypt, Somalia, or even other regional players pressurize Eritrea to adopt a harder stance against Ethiopia—as indicated by recent trilateral security agreements—they may inadvertently contribute to an atmosphere in which a local incident triggers a broader conflict. In this scenario, Eritrea might choose to retaliate militarily to “defend” its borders, with Ethiopia responding in kind.

4. Miscalculation and Rapid Military Mobilization

Under these conditions, what begins as a limited exchange of fire could quickly spiral out of control if high-ranking military commanders on either side misinterpret defensive measures as offensive aggression. With both sides already on heightened alert and engaged in military exercises, a misstep could lead to a rapid escalation into full-scale war.

Key Points and Uncertainties

   •   Speculative Nature: It is crucial to emphasize that this scenario is highly speculative. No definitive plans or imminent threats have been confirmed by either side.

   •   Complex Internal Dynamics: Ethiopia’s internal conflicts and political challenges, as well as Eritrea’s own domestic constraints, mean that both governments might ultimately find the costs of war too high.

   •   International Pressure: Global and regional diplomatic efforts, including those by bodies like the United States Institute of Peace and the African Union, could intervene to de-escalate tensions before any conflict erupts.

In summary, a potential outbreak of war in 2025 could stem from a convergence of an accidental border incident, a breakdown in diplomatic restraint, provocative military posturing, and reinforcing regional alliances. However, given the severe human, economic, and political costs associated with renewed conflict, many analysts believe that while the risk remains, a deliberate decision to go to war is unlikely without a major miscalculation.

References:

*Reuters, “Egypt, Eritrea and Somalia agree to boost security cooperation”

*Analysis from the United States Institute of Peace and related reports on regional tensions.