The Ethiopian Government’s Strategic Repression and the Fractured Oromo Opposition.
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The Ethiopian government’s relationship with Oromo opposition groups, particularly the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF) and the Oromo Federalist Congress (OFC), has long been defined by systemic repression, political manipulation, and a failure to address historical grievances. Recent assertions that the government secretly orchestrated a rapprochement between the OLF and OFC to co-opt public opinion in Oromia highlight a broader strategy of undermining genuine opposition while consolidating authoritarian control. The dynamics of this alleged maneuver, its failure to achieve a breakthrough, and the structural barriers to Oromo political unity in the face of state repression.
Historical Context: Oromo Marginalisation and Resistance
The Oromo, Ethiopia’s largest ethnic group, according to the political elites of ‘Oromuma’, those elites that promote citizenships of being Oromo, believe that the ethnic Oromo have faced systemic marginalisation since the late 19th-century conquest by Emperor Menelik II, which they now have revised that the emperor himself was full fledged Oromo but who entrenched in Amhara cultural dominance and suppressed Oromo identity. The OLF emerged in 1973 as a liberation movement advocating self-determination, while the OFC, a political party, later became a key voice for Oromo rights within Ethiopia’s federal framework. Despite Abiy Ahmed’s 2018 reforms, which initially raised hopes for reconciliation, Oromo grievances persist due to land disputes, cultural erasure, and economic neglect.
The OLF’s armed wing, the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA), has waged a low-level insurgency since 2018 after rejecting a peace deal with Abiy’s government. Meanwhile, the OFC, led by figures like Jawar Mohammed, has faced relentless state crackdowns, including mass arrests and terrorism charges. These actions reflect a broader pattern of stifling dissent through legal and extralegal means, such as arbitrary detentions, enforced disappearances, and extrajudicial killings.
Government Tactics: Divide, Detain, and Delegitimize
The Ethiopian government’s alleged orchestration of a failed alliance between the OLF and OFC fits into a long-standing strategy of fragmenting opposition movements. By fostering superficial unity between fractured groups, the state aims to create a controlled opposition that lacks grassroots legitimacy. However, this approach has faltered due to three key factors:
One of the boldest factor is Systemic Repression and Legal Persecution. The detention of OLF leaders for years without charge despite court orders for their release exemplifies the government’s disregard for judicial independence. Similarly, OFC figures like Jawar Mohammed and Bekele Gerba have been imprisoned on according to their own expressions with ‘dubious terrorism charges’, with their health deteriorating due to denied medical care. Such tactics erode trust in state institutions and deter meaningful political engagement.
The other factor will be Exploiting Inter-Oromo Divisions. The OLF and OFC represent divergent strategies: the former leans toward armed resistance, while the latter advocates electoral politics. The government has exploited these differences, labeling the OLF a terrorist organisation while criminalizing OFC protests as “incitement”. By covertly pushing for an alliance, the state likely sought to dilute both groups’ credibility, painting them as compromised or ineffective.
The third factor remains to be Militarizations and Counterinsurgency Failures.
The government’s heavy-handed counterinsurgency in Oromia marked by airstrikes, mass displacement, and ethnically targeted violence has fueled resentment rather than quelled rebellion. The OLA’s expansion into rural areas near Addis Ababa underscores the failure of militarization, pushing the state to seek alternative tactics like political manipulation.
Why the Rapprochement Failed
The purported alliance between the OLF and OFC collapsed due to structural weaknesses and government overreach:
Lack of Autonomy: Any state-engineered unity would lack grassroots support, as Oromo activists view government backed initiatives with suspicion. The OFC’s boycott of the 2021 elections, citing harassment, exemplifies this distrust.
Continued Repression: While promoting a superficial alliance, the government maintained its crackdown. For instance, OLF leaders remain detained without trial, and OFC members face restricted assembly rights.
Public Disillusionment: Oromo civilians, caught between insurgent violence and state brutality, are unlikely to rally behind a government-sanctioned coalition. Ethnically motivated massacres and forced displacements have deepened alienation.
Implications for Oromo Political Mobilizations
The failure of this alleged rapprochement underscores the Ethiopian state’s inability to address Oromo demands through genuine dialogue. Instead, the government’s reliance on repression and manipulation risks further radicalizing Oromo youth and prolonging conflict. International actors, including the UN and Human Rights Watch, have documented widespread abuses, yet Ethiopia’s Western allies often prioritise stability over accountability.
For the OLF and OFC, survival hinges on resisting co-optation and rebuilding trust within Oromo communities. However, without legal protections, access to media, or international pressure, their capacity to mobilise remains severely constrained.
The Ethiopian government’s alleged orchestration of a failed Oromo opposition alliance reflects a cynical attempt to neutralise dissent without addressing its root causes. By weaponising the justice system, militarizing Oromia, and exploiting inter-group divisions, the state has cornered the opposition but failed to resolve the crisis. Until systemic reforms such as releasing political prisoners, honoring court orders, and initiating inclusive peace talks are implemented, Oromia will remain a tinderbox of resistance and repression. The international community’s silence only emboldens Addis Ababa’s authoritarian playbook, ensuring that Ethiopia’s democratic transition remains an unfulfilled promise.
