Ethiopian Civic Space Under Siege: A Critical Analysis of Democratic Regression

By Dr. T Bekele, Senior Political Analyst, Ethiopian Tribune

Introduction

The recent Amnesty International report titled “It’s No Longer Shrinking, It’s Being Crushed” presents a deeply concerning assessment of Ethiopia’s civic space trajectory since Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s rise to power in 2018. This analysis examines the report’s claims within the broader context of Ethiopia’s democratic journey, evaluating both domestic implications and international dimensions with particular attention to U.S.-Ethiopia relations.

Promise and Reality: The Aborted Democratic Transition

When Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed assumed office, his initial reformist agenda generated significant optimism both domestically and internationally. The early liberalisation measures, including the release of political prisoners and invitation of exiled opposition groups, represented a sharp departure from the authoritarian governance that had characterised Ethiopia for decades prior. The symbolic hosting of World Press Freedom Day in 2019 further reinforced expectations of a democratic opening.

However, the Amnesty report correctly identifies the profound gap between these initial promises and subsequent realities. What we are witnessing is not merely democratic backsliding but rather a comprehensive dismantling of civic space that threatens to return Ethiopia to its authoritarian past, albeit under new leadership.

Systematic Suppression of Independent Voices

The report documents several alarming developments that deserve critical examination:

Media Repression

The imprisonment of 43 journalists in 2024 alone represents a staggering figure by any standard. The April 2025 raid on Addis Standard, one of Ethiopia’s few remaining independent media outlets, follows a pattern of intimidation and criminalization of journalism that has accelerated since 2022. These actions reflect not isolated incidents but rather a systematic campaign to silence critical reporting.

Civil Society Organisations Under Siege

The suspension of prominent human rights organisations including the Association for Human Rights in Ethiopia (AHRE), the Center for Advancement of Rights and Democracy (CARD), and Lawyers for Human Rights (LHR) on vague charges of “lack of political neutrality” demonstrates the government’s weaponisation of regulatory frameworks to eliminate institutional critics. The subsequent suspensions of the Ethiopian Human Rights Council and Ethiopian Human Rights Defenders Center further confirm this pattern.

While these suspensions were eventually lifted, the chilling effect remains profound. Organisations now operate under implicit threat, leading to self-censorship and operational constraints that severely limit their effectiveness as watchdogs and advocates.

Contextual Analysis: Beyond Amnesty’s Framing

While the Amnesty report provides valuable documentation, several additional contextual factors warrant consideration:

Security Justifications and Their Limits

The government has consistently justified restrictions on civic space through security imperatives, particularly in the context of the Tigray conflict and other regional instabilities. However, the targeting of organisations with no connection to these conflicts reveals these justifications as largely pretextual.

Regional Comparison

Ethiopia’s regression is particularly striking when compared to neighboring Kenya, which despite its challenges, maintains a relatively vibrant civil society and press freedom environment. This undermines arguments that regional security dynamics necessitate such severe restrictions.

Institutional Capture

Beyond direct suppression, the government has pursued a strategy of institutional capture, transforming ostensibly independent regulatory bodies like the Authority for Civil Society Organisations into instruments of control rather than facilitation. This approach is particularly effective as it allows for repression through seemingly neutral administrative processes.

The International Dimension: U.S. Policy Considerations

Amnesty International’s call for U.S. engagement merits critical examination from an Ethiopian perspective:

Strategic Leverage and Limitations

While the United States maintains significant economic and security leverage with Ethiopia, this influence has declined relative to other actors, particularly China. This complicates Washington’s ability to effectively pressure the Ethiopian government on human rights concerns.

Mixed Messages and Policy Incoherence

U.S. policy toward Ethiopia has suffered from inconsistency, with human rights concerns often subordinated to regional security priorities. This has undermined the credibility of American criticism and emboldened further restrictions on civic space.

Multilateral Approaches and Their Efficacy

The report’s call for U.S. support for renewed UNHRC engagement reflects recognition that bilateral pressure alone is insufficient. However, Ethiopian authorities have demonstrated increasing resistance to international human rights mechanisms, raising questions about the effectiveness of this approach without broader strategic recalibration.

Policy Implications and Prospects

The deterioration of Ethiopia’s civic space carries several significant implications:

Democratic Development at Risk

The systematic elimination of independent voices threatens to derail Ethiopia’s democratic development for a generation. Without space for civic engagement and criticism, even procedural democracy becomes hollow, as evidenced by the constrained conditions surrounding recent elections.

Regional Stability Concerns

Far from enhancing stability, the suppression of legitimate civil society actors risks driving opposition underground and potentially toward more radical expressions. This dynamic threatens the very security objectives the government claims to be advancing.

International Relations Impact

Ethiopia’s democratic regression complicates its international partnerships, particularly with Western democracies. However, the diversification of Ethiopia’s international relationships, especially with non-Western powers, provides the government with alternative sources of support that reduce vulnerability to Western pressure.

Conclusion: Beyond Binary Narratives

The Amnesty International report correctly identifies alarming trends in Ethiopia’s civic space. However, addressing this challenge requires moving beyond binary narratives of external pressure versus sovereignty.

For the United States, effective engagement demands policy coherence that consistently prioritizes human rights concerns while acknowledging Ethiopia’s legitimate security interests. This requires strategic patience and a willingness to invest in civil society resilience even when short-term policy objectives might suggest otherwise.

For Ethiopia, the current path of civic space restriction represents a profound strategic error. History demonstrates that societies that suppress peaceful advocacy inevitably face more destabilising forms of resistance. The government’s legitimacy and effectiveness would be better served by embracing rather than suppressing independent voices.

The deterioration of civic space in Ethiopia represents not merely a human rights concern but a fundamental threat to the country’s stability and development trajectory. Reversing this dangerous course requires both international engagement and domestic recalibration toward governance models that accommodate rather than criminalise dissent.

---

This analysis reflects the professional assessment of the Ethiopian Tribune’s political analysis team and does not necessarily represent the official position of the publication.