Ethiopia’s Maritime Ambitions Set to Advance as Somaliland Recognition Gains Momentum

Exclusive analysis reveals how potential US recognition of breakaway territory could unlock Ethiopia’s long-sought sea access through strategic port agreements

By Ethiopian Tribune Correspondent in London

Ethiopia’s decades-long quest for reliable maritime access appears poised for a significant breakthrough, following revelations that the United States may be preparing to recognise Somaliland as an independent state—a development that could legitimise Addis Ababa’s controversial port deal with the breakaway territory.

In an exclusive interview with The Guardian, Somaliland’s President Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi declared that international recognition is “on the horizon,” citing encouraging signals from the Trump administration and recent high-level US military visits to the territory’s capital, Hargeisa.

Strategic Port Agreement at Centre of Diplomatic Calculations

The potential recognition carries profound implications for Ethiopia’s maritime strategy, particularly regarding the contentious memorandum of understanding signed between Addis Ababa and Hargeisa last year. The deal, which grants Ethiopia access to establish a naval base and commercial maritime operations along Somaliland’s coastline, was reportedly conditional upon Ethiopia’s recognition of Somaliland’s independence.

The agreement triggered fierce diplomatic backlash from Somalia, which considers Somaliland part of its sovereign territory, and prompted broader regional tensions with Egypt backing Mogadishu’s position—partly motivated by its own disputes with Ethiopia over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam.

However, President Abdullahi’s latest comments suggest that US recognition could provide the international legitimacy needed to implement the port arrangement without the diplomatic isolation that has thus far constrained its progress.

Trump Administration Signals Policy Shift

Sources close to the Trump administration indicate a growing willingness to abandon the longstanding “one Somalia” policy, particularly as al-Shabaab militants continue to gain ground in Somalia proper. The administration has reportedly considered withdrawing US personnel from Somalia and closing the American embassy in Mogadishu.

Former British Defence Secretary Gavin Williamson, a prominent advocate for Somaliland recognition, told The Guardian that US officials had assured him recognition would occur before Trump’s term ends. “They’ve already started shifting away from the one Somalia policy,” Williamson stated.

The strategic calculations appear driven by concerns over Chinese influence at the US military base in Djibouti, with Project 2025—the alleged blueprint for Trump’s second presidency—proposing Somaliland recognition as a “hedge against the US’s deteriorating position in Djibouti.”

UAE Investment Strengthens Ethiopia-Somaliland Corridor

The geopolitical dynamics are further complicated by substantial United Arab Emirates investment in Somaliland’s infrastructure. The UAE has committed over $442 million to modernise Berbera port and construct a highway directly linking it to Ethiopia—infrastructure explicitly designed to facilitate Ethiopian maritime access.

This investment creates a powerful economic incentive for formalising the Ethiopia-Somaliland relationship, as the UAE seeks to maximise returns on its strategic infrastructure spending whilst strengthening ties with both Trump and regional allies.

President Abdullahi emphasised Somaliland’s role in regional security, noting recent US aircraft carrier operations off the Somaliland coast during bombing raids against Houthi rebels disrupting Red Sea shipping lanes. “We are a partner in security. We are a partner in counter-terrorism. We are a partner in safe marine routes for world trade,” he declared.

Regional Implications and Risks

Ethiopian officials will be keenly aware that Somaliland recognition could inflame existing tensions across the Horn of Africa. Somalia has consistently opposed any moves toward legitimising the breakaway territory, viewing such developments as direct challenges to its territorial integrity.

The involvement of Egypt in supporting Somalia’s position adds another layer of complexity, as Cairo continues to oppose Ethiopian dam projects on the Nile. Recognition of Somaliland could potentially escalate these disputes into broader regional confrontation.

Nevertheless, Ethiopia’s landlocked status makes reliable sea access a national strategic priority. Current arrangements depend heavily on Djibouti’s port facilities, creating vulnerabilities that Ethiopian planners have long sought to diversify.

Palestinian Resettlement Factor

An unexpected dimension to the recognition question involves potential Palestinian resettlement in Somaliland. President Abdullahi acknowledged that Palestinians have been relocating to the territory since 2004, with 12 Palestinian families currently resident.

Whilst no formal discussions have occurred regarding large-scale Gaza resettlement, officials indicated openness to increased Palestinian immigration. Such arrangements could provide additional leverage in securing international recognition, particularly given Trump administration statements about relocating Gaza’s population.

Timeframe and Prospects

Both President Abdullahi and former Defence Secretary Williamson predict recognition will occur by 2028 at the latest, with Williamson expressing hope for movement within the next year. The convergence of US strategic interests, UAE investment, and Ethiopian maritime needs creates a powerful coalition supporting recognition.

For Ethiopia, the implications extend far beyond immediate port access. Recognition would legitimise the naval base agreement, potentially providing the Ethiopian Navy with its first permanent maritime facility since Eritrean independence eliminated access to Red Sea ports.

As President Abdullahi noted, “It’s a matter of time. Not if, but when and who will lead the recognition of Somaliland.” For Ethiopia’s maritime ambitions, that timing could prove transformational.

The official US State Department maintains its support for “the sovereignty and territorial integrity” of Somalia, stating it is “not in discussions” with Somaliland regarding recognition. However, behind-the-scenes diplomatic manoeuvring suggests this position may be evolving rapidly.

This analysis is based on reporting by The Guardian’s Mark Townsend from Hargeisa and additional diplomatic sources.