The Escalating Conflict in Ethiopia’s Amhara Region.
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Current Situation: Renewed Offensives and Government Claims
The Amhara conflict, now approaching its second year, has intensified dramatically in recent days. Fano insurgents—a coalition of Amhara nationalist militias—launched a coordinated offensive dubbed “Operation Unity” targeting Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) positions across multiple zones, including South Gondar, North Wollo, and Gojjam . The Ethiopian government has framed this escalation as part of a broader conspiracy, alleging that Brigadier General Migbe Haile, a Tigrayan military leader aligned with the TPLF’s Debretsion faction, orchestrated the campaign to destabilize both Amhara and Tigray’s interim administration .
The ENDF claims to have “crushed” the offensive, reporting 317 Fano fighters killed, 125 captured, and 15 intelligence officers detained in clashes from March 26–28 . However, Fano sources dispute these figures, asserting decisive victories and the liberation of detained civilians in towns like Merawi and Lalibela . Independent verification remains challenging due to communication blackouts and restricted media access .
Government’s Narrative: Linking Fano to Tigrayan Factions
The Ethiopian government has intensified its rhetoric, accusing Tigrayan General Migbe Haile of masterminding Fano’s operations. According to ENDF statements, Migbe allegedly smuggled gold through Eritrea to fund Fano and sought to undermine the 2022 Pretoria Agreement, which ended the Tigray War . This narrative aligns with broader government efforts to frame the Amhara insurgency as a proxy conflict fueled by Tigrayan remnants opposed to Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s administration .
Critics argue this linkage is a strategic ploy to justify harsher counterinsurgency tactics and divert attention from domestic grievances, such as Amhara’s perceived marginalization and unresolved territorial disputes with Tigray over areas like Welkait and Raya .
Civilian Toll and Humanitarian Crisis
The conflict has inflicted severe humanitarian suffering:
- Civilian Casualties: Reports of extrajudicial killings by ENDF troops, including the Merawi massacre in January 2025 where dozens were executed, have drawn condemnation from Human Rights Watch and the EU .
- Displacement and Aid Blockades: Over 2 million Amhara civilians are displaced, with aid agencies warning of food shortages and collapsed healthcare systems . The region’s status as Ethiopia’s breadbasket raises fears of nationwide famine .
- Ethnic Targeting: Amhara communities outside their homeland, particularly in Oromia and Benishangul-Gumuz, face systematic violence, with allegations of state-backed ethnic cleansing .
Geopolitical Context and Historical Grievances
The Amhara conflict stems from decades of systemic marginalization and failed federal policies:
- Post-Tigray War Fallout: Amhara militias, once allied with Abiy during the Tigray War (2020–2022), felt betrayed by the Pretoria Agreement, which ignored their territorial claims and disbanded their regional forces .
- Ethnic Federalism: The 1994 constitution’s ethnic-based federal system, designed under TPLF dominance, entrenched divisions. Amhara nationalists view it as a tool for their political and economic disenfranchisement .
- Centralization vs. Autonomy: Abiy’s push to dissolve regional militias in 2023 ignited protests, driving defections to Fano and fueling insurgency .
International Response and Future Implications
- Diplomatic Inaction: Despite calls for dialogue from the AU and EU, international actors have limited leverage. The U.S. and EU condemned atrocities but stopped short of imposing sanctions .
- Risk of Regional Spillover: Eritrea’s alleged mobilization and Sudan’s border closures after Fano seized Metemma (September 2024) hint at broader destabilization .
- Fano’s Decentralized Resilience: While Fano lacks a unified command, its grassroots support and control over 80% of rural Amhara suggest a protracted stalemate .
A Path to Escalation or Negotiation?
The Ethiopian government’s reliance on military solutions risks deepening the crisis. With Fano factions now merging to form a cohesive entity , the conflict could evolve into a full-scale civil war, further fracturing Ethiopia’s fragile federal structure. Conversely, a negotiated settlement—including lifting the state of emergency, addressing Amhara grievances, and inclusive national dialogue—remains the only viable path to peace .
As one anonymous source noted, the government’s focus on Tigrayan conspiracies may foreshadow expanded offensives, potentially reigniting tensions with Tigray and Eritrea . Without urgent de-escalation, Ethiopia’s future hangs in the balance.
