Why Is Ethiopia’s Amhara Region Embroiled In Conflict?

In April 2023, a local group called the Fano went from being allies of the federal government to launching an armed rebellion.

The government placed the vast region, the second most-populous in Ethiopia, under a state of emergency from August 2023 to June 2024.

But that failed to stem the unrest and the government sent in military reinforcements in September.

Today, a large part of Amhara is beyond the control of the federal authorities and fighting has intensified in recent weeks.

The Fano are a long-standing “self-defence” militia for the local community in Amhara, which has around 23 million inhabitants.

The group supported federal forces in their civil war against Tigrayan rebels in 2020-2022.

But they felt betrayed by the subsequent peace agreement, which did not hand them control over parts of Tigray they consider “ancestral lands” of Amhara.

They also opposed federal government efforts to disarm them.

The Fano are a decentralised collection of groups with no unified command.

They enjoy “widespread support from within the region and the Amhara diaspora,” noted a 2024 report by the Rift Valley Institute.

“They are likely to have an enduring influence on the political and security environment in the region for some time to come,” it added.

Several security sources told AFP the Fano was in the process of merging several of its disparate groups into a more unified organisation.

An aid worker in Ethiopia, requesting anonymity, told AFP there was “heavy fighting on several fronts” last week.

“The Fano are present in the countryside but do not currently control any urban centres,” the aid worker added.

Federal forces said they had killed nearly 300 Fano in two days of violent clashes.

AFP was unable to independently verify the information.

There has been additional fighting in recent weeks linked to heightened tensions between Ethiopia and neighbouring Eritrea, the aid worker said.

The federal government has sent troops and weapons north to the Eritrean border and this has provided an opportunity for the Fano to step up attacks, a security source told AFP

“There is more fighting than usual,” said the source, also requesting anonymity.

“We are far from a turning point in the conflict at this stage.”

Armed clashes have been reported around Bahir Dar and Gondar, the two largest cities in the region.

The situation is “chaotic and uncertain”, said Kjetil Tronvoll, a Horn of Africa specialist at Oslo New University College

“Federal forces do not have territorial control of the region.”

In November, the authorities warned of “catastrophic” consequences for services in the region.

Several million children are out of school and many hospitals are no longer functioning.

A foreign researcher, who requested anonymity, highlighted the “extremely violent nature of attacks against civilians”, citing in particular “drone strikes” by federal authorities.

Economic activity is also disrupted.

German flower exporter Selecta announced in early March it was suspending production in the region, joining several companies who have pulled out.

“There is a high level of uncertainty, a lot of kidnappings, a deteriorating economy and conflicting lines of authority and allegiances, which makes everyday life a challenge for more or less all Amharas,” said Tronvoll

Source: barrons.com