The Disappearance of Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and the Culture of Secrecy in Leadership
2
0
The Vanishing Act: Abiy’s Three-Week Absence
For the past three weeks, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has been conspicuously absent from public view, sparking widespread speculation about his health, political stability, and the transparency of his government. While his deputy, Temesgen Tiruneh, has been photographed and filmed engaging in physical exercises with other high officials and ministers—prompting criticism about officials’ fitness for office—Abiy’s absence has fueled rumors ranging from a family holiday to post-surgical recovery. This follows a pattern: in 2022, Abiy vanished for days during Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s visit, leading to similar health-related conjecture before he resurfaced in a cabinet meeting .
The current vacuum of official communication has amplified public anxiety. Some speculate that Abiy, who reportedly underwent undisclosed surgery in 2023 or 2024, may require follow-up treatment. Others suggest he is recuperating from stress amid Ethiopia’s escalating conflicts in Tigray, Amhara, and Oromia . Notably, pro-government figures like MP Daniel Kibret, known for orchestrating prayer campaigns during crises, have yet to mobilize public appeals—a tactic previously used to quell unrest.
Historical Precedent: The Case of Meles Zenawi
Abiy’s disappearance evokes memories of former Prime Minister Meles Zenawi, who governed Ethiopia for 21 years until his death in 2012. Meles vanished from public view for two months before his government acknowledged he was receiving treatment abroad for an undisclosed illness. His death in a Belgian hospital underscored the secrecy surrounding leaders’ health in Ethiopia, a tradition rooted in fears of political destabilization. Critics argue that Abiy’s Prosperity Party, like its predecessor, the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), prioritizes power consolidation over transparency .
Why Secrecy Persists: Political and Cultural Factors
Legacy of Authoritarianism: Ethiopia’s history of centralized rule, from the Derg regime to the EPRDF, has normalized opacity. The EPRDF’s gimgema (self-criticism) rituals were abolished under Abiy, replaced by a culture of monologues and suppressed dissent .
Fragile Unity: Ethiopia’s ethnic federalism makes leaders’ health a national security issue. Disclosing vulnerabilities could embolden regional factions, such as Tigrayan rebels or Oromo nationalists, to challenge federal authority .
Propaganda and Image Control: Abiy’s rise was buoyed by his Nobel Peace Prize and reformist image. Admitting health struggles could undermine his “strongman” persona, critical in a nation grappling with civil war and economic collapse .
The Deputy PM’s Public Relations Gambit
Deputy PM Temesgen Tiruneh recent public appearances—exercising with ministers—appear calculated to project normalcy. However, critics deride these displays as superficial, highlighting the government’s focus on optics over substance. The deputy’s efforts contrast sharply with Abiy’s absence, raising questions about leadership cohesion. Meanwhile, Ethiopia’s economic crisis—marked by hyperinflation and a currency collapse—has left citizens skeptical of elites’ priorities .
Could Abiy Follow Meles’ Fate?
While parallels to Meles Zenawi are inevitable, key differences exist. Meles’ illness was terminal, whereas Abiy’s previous health rumors were debunked as hoaxes . However, the lack of accountability mechanisms in Ethiopia’s governance allows such speculation to thrive. The Prosperity Party’s refusal to address public concerns risks eroding trust further, potentially triggering unrest akin to the 2020 election postponement crisis .
A Nation in the Dark
Ethiopia’s leadership culture, shaped by decades of secrecy, leaves citizens dependent on rumors and fragmented information. Abiy’s absence underscores systemic issues: a lack of institutional checks, ethnic fragmentation, and the politicization of leaders’ health. Until Ethiopia embraces transparency, its people will remain in the shadows of uncertainty—a reality that jeopardizes both democracy and stability.
