USAID is linchpin in Ethiopia’s fight against communicable diseases, malaria prevention and HIV/AIDS treatment.

The USAID funding cut in Ethiopia—and by extension, across much of sub‐Saharan Africa—has set off alarm bells among public health experts and humanitarian organizations. For decades, USAID has been a linchpin in Ethiopia’s fight against communicable diseases, supporting everything from malaria prevention campaigns and HIV/AIDS treatment to TB control and routine immunizations. The sudden disruption of these services is likely to reverse hard‐won gains and significantly increase both morbidity and mortality.

USAID’s investments in Ethiopia have been substantial. In 2023, Ethiopia was the largest recipient of US aid in sub‐Saharan Africa, receiving over US $1 billion. This funding has supported:

   •   Emergency food and nutritional aid: Crucial for millions facing famine and malnutrition.

   •   Health system strengthening: Including support for thousands of health workers, laboratory diagnostics, and supply chains for life-saving medicines.

   •   Disease prevention and control programs: Covering malaria, HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, measles, and other communicable diseases.

The abrupt funding cut—and the resulting freeze or termination of numerous contracts—now jeopardizes these systems, with immediate and potentially long-term consequences. The recent rising numbers death caused by Malaria could be seen that Ethiopia’s historical Safety Net Under Strain.

Impact on Malaria Control in Ethiopia has been a persistent challenge. Recent figures indicate that malaria cases surged from around 900,000 in 2019 to approximately 7.3 million in 2024. USAID-supported initiatives such as the distribution of insecticide-treated bed nets, indoor residual spraying, and improved diagnostic services have played a key role in limiting transmission and reducing mortality.

With the suspension of USAID funding disruption, preventions efforts are halted such as interruptions in net distributions and community education campaigns are expected to be affected.

The shortages of funds has caused delays in treatment and shortages of essential antimalarial drugs and diagnostic supplies may become scarce, potentially increasing case fatality rates.

 Economic repercussion such as increased malaria incidence further strains households and health systems, deepening poverty and limiting workforce productivity.

The knock-on effect is a likely resurgence in malaria-related morbidity and mortality, reversing years of progress.

USAID funding has also been instrumental in Ethiopia’s HIV/AIDS response, stopping the fund will be the setback in HIV/AIDS and Tuberculosis programs funneling hundreds of millions of dollars into prevention, testing, and treatment initiatives. With nearly US $3 billion historically invested nationwide:

 USAID diminishing fund will cause disruption of antiretroviral therapy (ART). Clinics have already reported supply interruptions. Patients reliant on uninterrupted treatment risk viral rebound, increased transmission, and the emergence of drug resistance.

 Reports indicate that approximately 5,000 USAID-funded health workers in Ethiopia have lost their positions, undermining the capacity to deliver consistent HIV care.

Initiatives such as those delivered through the President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) face severe operational uncertainties. UNAIDS has warned that without sustained support, new HIV infections could jump several fold over the coming years.

Similarly, tuberculosis programs are at risk. With critical activities—like screening, diagnostics, and treatment supervision—disrupted by the funding cut, Ethiopia could see increased TB transmission and drug shortages, especially in high-burden settings.

Broader Public Health and Social Implications

The disruption extends beyond malaria and HIV/AIDS:

   •   Other Communicable Diseases: Interruptions in immunization programs and maternal and child health services may lead to outbreaks of measles, polio, and diarrheal diseases.

   •   Supply Chain Disruptions: Reuters reports have highlighted how the funding freeze has already unsettled global supply chains for essential health commodities, a “bullwhip effect” that risks higher prices and shortages even if funding resumes later.

   •   Long-term Infrastructure Damage: The rapid dismantling of USAID’s extensive network not only stops current projects but also weakens the long-term resilience of Ethiopia’s health system—an infrastructure that took decades to build.

Moreover, these funding cuts have cascading effects on the broader social and economic fabric. With fewer resources available for health, communities may experience rising poverty, decreased school attendance, and heightened instability—all factors that can further amplify the spread of communicable diseases.

The recent USAID funding cut in Ethiopia is not a mere budgetary adjustment—it is a disruptive shock that undermines decades of progress in combating communicable diseases. With malaria cases already rising to millions, HIV/AIDS programs at risk of collapse, and TB control efforts hampered by reduced testing and treatment capacities, Ethiopia could see a marked increase in morbidity and mortality. This situation, echoed across many African countries reliant on US aid, underscores the critical importance of sustained international support in global health. Even though USAID accounts for less than 1% of the US federal budget, its contributions have been lifesaving for millions; losing this support now could trigger a humanitarian crisis with far-reaching consequences.